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Recap: Kansas at Boston College Print E-mail
Jan 6, 2008

Kansas 85 - Boston College 60

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Darnell Jackson
Lowest: Corey Raji

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Darnell Jackson 9.43
Darrell Arthur 8.17
Mario Chalmers 5.95
Brandon Rush 5.62
Sasha Kaun 1.90
Russell Robinson 1.49
Jeremy Case* 0.34
Cole Aldrich* 0.12
Tyrel Reed* -0.05
Rodrick Stewart* -0.10
Matt Kleinmann* -0.12
Sherron Collins -0.31

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
  R. Sanders 3.14
  J. Oates 2.65
  T. Blair 0.80
  J. Southern* 0.00
  T. Rice -0.16
  S. Spears -1.59
  B. Paris -2.43
  T. Roche -2.95
  C. Raji -4.77

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Darrell Arthur
Lowest: Corey Raji

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Darrell Arthur 14.46
Darnell Jackson 12.51
Brandon Rush 7.96
Mario Chalmers 7.90
Jeremy Case* 7.25
Sasha Kaun 4.75
Russell Robinson 2.63
Cole Aldrich* 0.87
Rodrick Stewart* -0.53
Sherron Collins -0.59
Tyrel Reed* -0.98
Matt Kleinmann* -5.17

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
  J. Oates 4.89
  R. Sanders 3.92
  T. Blair 1.25
  J. Southern* 0.00
  T. Rice -0.23
  S. Spears -2.33
  B. Paris -6.07
  T. Roche -6.27
  C. Raji -10.66

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

If any KU fans have a tendency to do the "King Kong thing" and pound their chests when they feel invincible, there had to be some of that in this game.  For a time it looked like KU was going to pull away and win by 40+ points.  In any event, once the early jitters were over, KU settled into a nice pattern of disrupting BC's "Flex" offense, racing past them on fast breaks and rebounding the heck out of the ball.  My personal favorite moment (as a Jayhawk diehard, of course) was when Tyrese Rice pump faked Russell Robinson (RR didn't bite) then jumped and double-clutched his shot only to have Robinson hold his arms straight up with both feet planted on the floor and grab the ball while Rice was in the air.  If that didn't signify what kind of day it was for BC, I don't know what did.

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Boston College
Offensive Performance
134.8 108.6
Defensive Performance 79.5 96.2

 Comments

KU outperformed BC on both offense and defense by a wide margin.  KU's offensive efficiency was much better than projected, and it was due mostly to strong KU offense rather than poor BC defense.  BC's offensive efficiency was about equal to projections.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasBoston College
eFG%8.5
 
TO Rate5.5
 
O-Reb%6.3
 
FreethrowsFT Pct4.7
 
FT Attempts1.3
 

 

Player Performance Analysis


The dynamic frontcourt duo of Darnell Jackson and Darrell Arthur of KU stole the show.  A combination of post moves by Arthur, mid-range jumpers by Jackson, and stickbacks and fast-break dunks by both kept the entertainment level high.  Jackson shot 69 eFG%, while Arthur topped that with 83 eFG%.  Jackson had a career-high 25 PTS to go with his 9 REB (3 OREB), 7-of-8 FT, 2 STL and only 1 TO in 32 MIN.  Arthur scored 22 PTS and grabbed 7 REB (1 OREB), 2 BLK, 1 TO and made both his FT's in only 24 MIN for the more efficient performance of the two.  Either way you look at it, it had to be disheartening for BC to see one of these two on the floor the entire game and a fairly-efficient Kaun backing them up when one was out.

 

Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush were the other most significant contributors for Kansas.  Chalmers' 2-of-4 from 3FG kept his shooting at a respectable 50 eFG%, allowing his 6 AST and 4 STL against 0 TO to shine.  Rush had one of his best shooting performances (68.8 eFG%) in scoring 12 PTS, 5 REB (3 OREB), 2 AST, 2 BLK, 1 STL and 2 TO in 30 MIN.

 

Kaun had a pretty efficient outing with 8 PTS, 5 REB (2 OREB) on 4-of-6 FT shooting and 67 eFG%.  Russell Robinson had a mediocre performance, shooting poorly (38 eFG%, 1-of-2 FT) and turning it over three times but did have 2 STL and 1 BLK in just 24 MIN.  The most disappointing performance was probably from Sherron Collins, who was projected to play better than usual.  In 22 MIN, he made only 1-of-5 FG (a miraculous double-clutch reverse layup on a fast break) to finish with 2 PTS, 5 AST, 1 STL and 1 TO.  Some of those assists were very valuable though.  He just missed some open shots, which means better performances should be ahead.  Regardless, his numbers weren't great this game.

 

For Boston College, it may have looked the Tyrese Rice Show for a while, but his 20 PTS didn't come all that efficiently.  He did shoot 50 eFG% and made 4-of-5 FT, but he also had 6 TO.  His rating would have been better if not for BC's overall poor performance.  BC's main contributions came from freshman Rakim Sanders who scored his 21 PTS on 63 eFG% shooting and had 5 AST against 2 TO.  Unfortunately, he made only 2-of-6 FT (roughly equivalent to 2 made FT and 2 TO).  Most disappointing was freshman Corey Raji, who was projected to have the best game.  It's not unusual to see freshmen have bad games against teams like Kansas though.  Raji missed all four of his shots and had very little else to show for his 19 MIN. 

 

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual 
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 78-63  KU 85-60 
 Tempo (# poss)
 70 66 It felt like it was a fast-paced game with all the fast breaks though.

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 59-48%  KU 56-49%
 
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 27-21%  KU 21-14%
 BC ended up with a respectably low number, but KU won this battle by really minimizing theirs.
 O-Reb% KU 35-31%
 KU 50-29%
 Surprising domination by KU in this category. 
 FT Rate BC 33-17% KU 24-17%
 Really BC's only hope, and it failed.
 Four Factors Overall
 Significant advantage at FT line for BC is cancelled out by expected OREB% for KU, leaving the significant eFG% difference as the reason for KU's expected comfortable victory.  Roughly equivalent advantages in all four factors resulted in complete domination by KU.
 
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur, Chalmers/Collins/Rush

 Opp - Rice, Sanders

 KU - Jackson, Arthur

 Opp - Sanders, Rice 

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Chalmers

 Opp - Raji

 KU - Jackson (Chalmers #3)

 Opp - Sanders (Raji was worst on court) 

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Collins

 Opp - Raji

 KU - Arthur (Collins was lowest on KU)

 Opp - Oates (Raji was worst on court)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Collins, Arthur

 Opp - Roche, Sanders

 KU - Arthur, Jackson

 Opp - Oates, Sanders 

 Indicates that BC's surprise performer of the game was Oates.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Reed, Stewart

 Opp - Oates, Paris

 KU - Collins, Robinson

 Opp - Raji, Roche 

 Indicates that Collins and Roche were major disappointments.  Neither Stewart nor Reed played enough to qualify for evaluation.

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Both teams' defensive efficiencies are highly correlated to how much offensive rebounding they give up.  If either team establishes a nice edge in OREB%, it could be a difference maker.  Either team to have edge of at least 7% in OREB%.
KU won by whopping 21%  KANSAS - Huge factor in increasing KU's offensive efficiency.  Given BC's respectable eFG% shooting, their poor showing contributed greatly to their own offensive struggles.
 The expected advantage at the FT line must materialize for BC to have a shot at the upset.  KU has one of the better defensive FT Rates, while BC has one of the best offensive FT Rates.  BC to outscore KU from the FT line by at least 8  KU by 6
 KANSAS - BC's one expected "Four Factors" advantage proved to be a major liability.
 Given KU's expected status as clear favorite, they may tighten up if BC stays close at halftime.  KU needs to secure a lead going into the half as a confidence builder.  KU to lead at the half by at least 7 points
 KU was up 18  KANSAS - No chance for BC to gain any confidence.