Kansas 68 - Toledo 58

My Observations

After all was said and done, I looked at a couple of stats that made me feel better.  Toledo scored only 0.79 points per possession.  That's remarkably effective defense.  You can argue whatever you want, but that was the outcome of the game despite what appeared to be hot perimeter shooting from the Rockets.  KU scored 1.02 points per possession, slightly above the NCAA average.  Not a great offensive display and certainly looked ugly at times, but that was the outcome.  Our eyes can deceive us sometimes because emotions and expectations can get in the way.

I know there must have been so many fans frustrated like myself that KU wasn't blowing Toledo out of the water.  It's hard to argue against the notion that we should have won this game with ease.  In the end, I couldn't help but think back to how things went down against ORU.  Didn't everyone talk about how a team with this much talent playing a mid-major should still be able to win when it's off its game and the other team is playing extremely well?  That's essentially what we saw in Kemper on this day.  KU clearly struggled hitting its shots, surprisingly struggled on the glass, and gave up too many wide open 3FG's that helped keep the game close.  Yet, in the end, KU led most of the way with just enough breathing room to avoid any late-game drama.  Not an impressive performance, but what you'd expect when KU has an off game and its weaker opponent shows up to play.

Four Factor Analysis

• SHOOTING - Clear advantage here for Kansas, as the Jayhawks outshot the Rockets 53-43 eFG%.  It is remarkable that Toledo took so many more FG's, but look at the number fouls and you'll see that it's because KU was getting hacked.
• OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - What should have been a dominant display by KU turned out to be an essentially even battle.  KU grabbed about 28% of available offensive rebounds to Toledo's 23%.  Shocking that KU didn't get at least the NCAA avg of 32%.  In my opinion, this was the biggest factor that kept the game closer than most expected.  Rush was the only KU player with more one offensive board!
• TURNOVERS - Nearly identical, as both teams turned it over about 21% of possessions.  This should have been an advantage for Kansas.
• FREETHROW RATE - Heavily tilted in KU's favor (0.3 vs 0.08).  Kansas went to the line four times as often as Toledo, but only made three times the number of FT's.  Still, the Jayhawks relied on this advantage a great deal.

Player Performance Analysis

Looks like Brandon Rush and Sasha Kaun threw themselves a welcome-back party, but no one else on the team got the invitation.  Rush finally had a standout game on the offensive end.  His 6-of-16 shooting statistic is misleading, since he made 5 three-pointers.  Thus, his eFG% was actually 53%.  He even made all his FT's, grabbed 5 offensive boards (7 total), 4 blocks, and did all this without a single turnover.  I don't know what Brandon had for breakfast, but I hope it was legal.  It remains to be seen whether this signals an extended return to the KU offense, but I know that Jayhawks everywhere breathed a sigh of relief watching his shots go down.  Defensively, Rush was one of many Jayhawks who didn't do a great job of containing Toledo's offense in the first half.  But I don't think anyone wants Rush's role to be defensive stopper only.  Welcome back, Brandon.  Don't go anywhere ... please.

For those who wondered what it would look like if Kaun was effective, I hope you saw the game.  Now, it's obvious that he's not a playmaker, but with his size and smart positioning, there should be plenty of opportunities for easy lay-ins, dunks, and stickbacks.  That should keep his eFG% up and efficiency somewhat higher with it.  The key will be whether he can avoid TO's and too many silly fouls.  He didn't have a single of either this game.  He made all five of his FG's to score in double figures but grabbed a disappointing 2 rebounds (none offensive).  His 4 BLK did help KU set the school record for blocks in a game -- a whopping fifteen!

It was a lonely day out there for the only two Jayhawks who showed up to play.  No one else scored in double figures, and anything good they did was largely negated by mistakes.  Rodrick Stewart did a couple of nice things (2 reb, 2 ast) but didn't take any shots.  In only 22 minutes, Arthur made some shots, had 3 BLK, 2 STL, but missed his freethrow, sat out a lot with 3 fouls, and only 1 of his rebounds was on the offensive side.  Darnell Jackson started the game with a flurry of points and rebounds.  In the end, his 7 pts and 4 reb were helpful, but he didn't have much else (0 AST, 0 STL, 0 BLK) to push his rating up much higher than a little above zero.

What some view as the nation's top backcourt did not live up to its billing against Toledo.  Worst on this day was Russell Robinson.  That's two bad games in the last week, adding fuel to some's argument that Robinson should play less and make way for freshman Sherron Collins.  He had the usual bad shooting game (1-4 FG), but also surprisingly shot only 3-of-7 from the freethrow line at the end of the game.  He came in with a 74% FT average.  Normally, RR makes up for his poor shooting by dishing out plenty of assists, but this time he had 4 AST's and 2 TO's to go with only 1 STL.  He also exhibited some poor decision-making by committing an ill-timed foul, something he appears to be making a habit of recently.  Hopefully, Russell will return to his usual steady ways soon.

Julian Wright didn't appear to have his head in the game the first half.  The rest of him joined his head in the 2nd half when Self kept him out of the game.  The coach indicated it was due to matchup difficulties against Toledo's small lineup, but it could well have been a disciplinary move of sorts.  Regardless, it is obvious that Wright has the ability to do some amazing things, but against a somewhat weak opponent he still didn't show energy and passion out there.  Is it possible he's just not into the game much right now?  KU fans should hope not, as this team's fate does depend on him being a factor.  Julian shot poorly all around and had zero O-REB.

Mario Chalmers opened the game like he was going to take everything over then promptly disappeared only to reappear occasionally with careless TO's.  He didn't shoot nearly well enough to make up for 4 TO's, 4 PF's, and 0-2 shooting from three-point land.

For those looking to replace Russell Robinson with Sherron Collins, I would only ask that you take a look at his effect on KU's ability to keep possession.  SC had 6 TO's this game.  I'm not saying Collins at his best is not as good as Robinson at his best.  I'm just saying that it may not be the right time to move Collins ahead of Robinson in the depth chart.

For Toledo, the two top-rated players coming in to the game really lived up to their billing.  Both Howell and Valencia had strong games.  Howell scored 18 points on 4-6 three-point shooting, and he didn't turn it over once.  In fact, when adjusting for opponent quality, Howell came ever so close to having the highest game rating on the court (barely edged out by Brandon Rush).  Meanwhile, Valencia carried the burden inside with 11 pts and 4 offensive rebounds.

It was a rough day for Amos, Ingram, and especially Payne.  Amos was the surprising one to struggle, as his efficiency was rather good coming in.  He had too many TO's and fouls that he didn't compensate with enough scoring and rebounds.  Meanwhile, Ingram had a really rough shooting night (5-18 overall, 3-9 from three), and Payne shot terribly and committed 5 TO's.