Kansas 80 - Rhode Island 69

My Observations

Reading what KU fans had to say about this game, you'd think that the Jayhawks just withstood a strong effort from a talented, tough team that will be playing in the postseason and that KU played pretty well.  Actually, you'd think almost the same thing if you listened to Bill Self: "“If you take away their free throws, offensive rebounds and our lack of killer instinct, that was as good as we have played in a long time."  Really?  If you also subtract five points from Bradley's score in the Tournament last season, KU would have won ... but you can't really do that now, can you?  Often, free throws and offensive rebounds alone are enough to win games, and a lack of killer instinct is enough to lose games.  What does that really mean?

This Rhode Island team was not a good team.  By nearly any measure, there are at least 170 teams that have played better this season.  Sure, they have a respectable offense, but their defense has been practically non-existent.  Before KU fans get excited about how well the Jayhawks played offensively, take note of this.  Kansas scored about 1.15 pts/possession last night.  Before this game, URI's opponents had averaged about (drum roll) 1.15 pts/possession.  And URI's strength of schedule is (drum roll) #114 by Pomeroy and #178 by Sagarin ... and that includes their game against KU.  The bottom line is that KU didn't do anything special on offense against URI.  They did hold the Rams to a significantly lower efficiency than most opponents, but this was not one of KU's typical dominating defensive performances.  Sure, the Rams were misfiring everything in the 1st half, but KU was practically outrebounded on its defensive end, so that didn't really allow KU to pull away nearly as much as it should have.

Maybe KU was hurt by Russell Robinson's absence (not according to Sherron Collins sympathizers), or maybe there was too much smiling and laughing going on by the Jayhawks instead of focus and discipline.  Whatever the reason, I just can't say that beating a 26-point underdog that can't play defense in Allen Fieldhouse by 11 points, while barely breaking 80 points, is somehow all that impressive.  It just confirms that we're a better team than Rhode Island, but this was not evidence that we're that much better than anyone ranked in the Top 25.

Four Factor Analysis

• SHOOTING - Significant advantage to KU (52 to 43 eFG%).  This was the main factor responsible for the Jayhawk victory.
• OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - KU should have been dominant on the offensive glass, but instead both teams were just average.  Compared to expectations, advantage to the Rams.
• TURNOVERS - Small advantage to KU (13% vs 17%), but this should have been an even more significant margin considering strenths/weaknesses.
• FREETHROW RATE - Unexpectedly a significant advantage to Kansas (26% vs 11%).  Probably would have expected URI to hold an edge.

CONCLUSION - This particular four-factor profile, in a typical game, would have resulted in a 20-pt victory for Kansas.  Two reasons this happened, one a fact and the other somewhat speculative.  First, URI took 9 more field goals, so that helped negate their eFG% disadvantage.  Second, KU probably didn't take advantage of their TO's and offensive rebounds as well as URI did, so the value of these factors was not as significant in a typical game.

Player Performance Analysis

It may have looked like Julian Wright was fantastic out there, making shots and dunks left and right, but it was Will Daniels who put on the best show, considering the opposition.  This is exactly the kind of game that illustrates the need to adjust for quality of opponent, because strictly looking at the boxscore it looked like Wright had a better game.  In the context of a game where KU did not perform up to expectations, Daniels' play was more impressive.  Daniels was a hot shooter from everywhere, including the freethrow line, and he even pulled down 8 rebounds (3 offensive).  Julian Wright countered with even hotter shooting and basically the same rebounding numbers, but let's face it, that should be easier to do against Rhode Island's defense than KU's.

Harris and Cothran also came to play for the Rams.  Both shot efficiently overall, each grabbed 6 rebounds, and kept their TO's somewhat low while playing 27 minutes or fewer.  Considering who they were playing, it was more impressive than the performance of any Jayhawk player sans Wright.  Thank goodness Mbang decided to do very little right for the Rams.

For Kansas, after Wright, there was little to be too excited about.  Sherron Collins had his second solid game in a row, subbing for Russell Robinson for most of the game (flu).  Collins' shooting from the field was exceptional (4-7 overall, 2-4 3FG), and he even chipped in 5 REB and 5 AST against just 1 TO.  Really impressive stuff.  Unfortunately, he made only 3-5 FT's and took a significant portion of the responsibility for a lackluster performance, given his 27 minutes (as opposed to his usual 18 or so).

It was a somewhat better-than-usual game for Brandon Rush, although it still netted out somewhat low because of team performance.  Rush shot very well (6-12 overall, 3-6 on 3FG's), grabbed 6 REB and made 3 BLK.  He hurt himself with 3 TO's and 0 STL, but on a bright note he made all four of this freethrows.  It does look like Brandon is getting some of his swagger back, and it couldn't be more welcome.  His rating here seems low mostly because he played 36 minutes in a game that KU underperformed considerably.

Most of the other KU players had some good things and some bad, and then team performance dragged them down a bit.  Mario Chalmers had lots of steals but didn't shoot particularly well.  The one player who stood out (in a bad way) was Darrell Arthur.  His jump shots now look like intentional free throw misses, or sometimes like a baseball pitch, and other times like a shot put.  But rarely do they look like the Darrell Arthur that took Al Horford to town.  If he's sick, that would explain some of it, but it's looking like a longer slump now.  This was his worst performance all season probably.  It is good to know that we can count on him for some blocks every game, but if KU is going places, it needs to have a dependable inside scoring presence.  Sasha Kaun can do it occasionally, but those are special occasions.  The DA needs to start prosecuting his case soon, or the verdict will not to be his or KU's liking.