Sports and Numbers

Texas Tech 69 - Kansas 64

My Observations

Worst defensive performance for Kansas all season, second only to the Oral Roberts debacle.  At least this was on an opponent's floor against the all-time winningest coach in history.  Not much consolation to KU fans with unrealistic expectations that this team was capable of an undefeated conference season.  It was painfully obvious on this day that superior athletic talent can lose to superior basketball IQ and execution.  Kansas probably played below its average game, and TTU probably played better than it usually does (what team wouldn't against a Top 5 team on its home court?) and by most objective viewers, there was probably an advantage to TTU in terms of foul calls and special situations (shot clock reset near the end of the game).  Nevertheless, this game was still decided by the Red Raiders' superior play more than by any extraneous factor.  Hats off to Coach Knight for his preparation and ability to keep his players focused on the game plan.  They dismantled the nation's 2nd-rated defense (going into the game) to the tune of 1.03 pts/poss, roughly 20% higher than what KU normally allows.

Still, there were times when I questioned what our team was doing.  For example, near the end of the game when TTU had a lead, why did Self choose to play zone defense and allow the Red Raiders to milk the clock?  Only when KU began pressing did the Jayhawks surge back to tie the game.  The personnel on this team seems perfectly suited for an athletic, uptempo game.  Granted, it's difficult to run when your opponent is scoring effectively, but there are teams out there that can essentially force the tempo of the game by the way they play.  KU should be forcing tempo, especially in a game where they know their opponent is going to have players out there for 40 minutes (three TTU players did).  When all is said and done, though, this game was still tied down to the last 3-4 possessions, and the one thing that Kansas needed all day eluded them once again ... a defensive stop.  No excuses, TTU beat KU's offense.

Four Factor Analysis

• eFG% - 55-50% advantage to TTU, but neither team really struggled overall in shooting.
• TURNOVERS - Surprising 24-19% in favor of KU.  Most of this was in the 2nd half.
• OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Slight advantage to KU 34-28%, but this probably should have been significantly more.
• FREETHROW RATE - 31-3% in favor of TTU.  Think any team can overcome a disadvantage like that?

CONCLUSION - The single largest factor that decided the game was freethrow attempts, where TTU slaughtered KU by a margin of 20 to 4.  KU's marginal advantages in the turnover and rebounding departments could hardly make up for the combined field goal and freethrow shooting advantages for TTU.

Player Performance Analysis

This was supposed to be a game where two players dictated what would happen for Texas Tech (Jackson and Zeno).  In reality, those two played fair games, but it was the superb play of their supporting cast that provided the boost TTU needed for the upset.

Take a look at Burgess, Dora and Voskuil.  At first glance, Burgess and Voskuil's numbers don't look too appealing.  But remember that in this game, TTU didn't get too many offensive rebounds, so a missed shot was penalized somewhat more heavily.  Burgess shot 3-4 from the field (1-1 from 3FG), grabbed 5 defensive rebounds, 3 AST, 1 STL, and committed only 1 TO.  He did that while playing the entire 40 minutes of a highly-rated game for TTU, meaning he gets a ton of credit for TTU's win over a top-rated team.  Voskuil played only 17 minutes, but they were very efficient.  He went 1-2 from the field, 3-4 from FT, 5 REB (2 offensive), 3 AST and 0 TO's.  In this game, an offensive rebound meant a lot to TTU because of their high scoring efficiency.  Dora is a no-brainer pick for good ratings.  He shot and rebounded very well, including 3-8 from 3FG and all three of TTU's blocked shots.  He's hurt by 5 TO's, which were costly on a day when TTU scored so efficiently.

Prince's numbers were somewhat similar to Voskuil's, except that he had 3 TO's.  Zeno wasn't on fire, but he made plenty of shots (6-14 FG) and grabbed 2 offensive rebounds, 1 STL, 5 REB total and only 1 TO.  He gets plenty of credit also, as he played the entire 40 minutes.

And what of Jarrius Jackson, the Red Raiders' star player?  He shot 50 eFG% (4-10 FG, 2-5 from 3FG), but he made only 5-8 FT, had no rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks, but he did have 2 TO's.  Though he gets credit for playing 40 minutes, it's not enough to overcome his complete lack of anything other than shooting FG's at an average clip.  The difficulty of ratings systems, though, is in capturing the value he brings by forcing the defense to focus its attention on him, thereby letting the Voskuil's and Dora's of the team contribute better.  Make no mistake, Jackson affected this game in a positive way for TTU.

For Kansas, it's been the Sherron Collins Show lately.  He didn't have quite the same splash this game as he did against Missouri, but he was the lone bright spot for KU this day.  Shooting 4-6 FG (2-3 on 3FG), 7 AST, 1 STL, and only 2 TO's, Collins almost gave KU the victory.  Jayhawk fans must think of the long term and be excited about this.  If Collins can continue improving, just think how effective he could be by the time March rolls around.  By then, this team could be an entirely different one with scoring options all around (have you seen Kaun's improvement down low?).  The future is bright, and it has everything to do with Sherron Collins.  Now, if his fellow rookie Arthur can join him on the quest, we might start talking about April.

What can we make of Julian Wright's performance?  Tough call because clearly he was making poor decisions out there.  He doesn't seem to have learned that he's not John Stockton when he's passing, not Craig Hodges when he's shooting three-pointers and not Steve Nash when he's dribbling.  What's remarkable is that his numbers still look so good relative to his teammates.  After accounting for this game, Wright will most likely have the highest ePSAN (total impact) and ePSAN70 (efficiency) score on the team, and that probably won't gel with what many people think.  But look at the numbers against TTU.  In just 17 minutes of play he scored 12 points on 6-12 shooting, 5 REB (2 O-REB), 1 BLK, 2 STL, and 2 TO's (though 0 AST).  He took two three-pointers he shouldn't have taken and generally didn't have his head in the game.  Yet, you can't argue that his contributions didn't make some difference ... he was the leading scorer on the team and one rebound shy of leading in that category.  It's hard to blame anyone for saying that Julian Wright has the skills to be the best player in the country and the inconsistency to be the biggest headache.  Sounds a lot like the way I'd describe the Kansas Jayhawks this season.

Kaun was probably the only other KU player with an overall positive impact.  He shot 3-4 but had only 1 REB.  On defense he was menacing with 4 BLK while even chipping in with 1 STL.  He kept his TO's to a minimum, committing just one.  If he'd gotten some more rebounds, it would have been a solid performance, but this was only a fair outing.

Robinson, Chalmers, and Arthur had a somewhat negative impact on the game.  Robinson had another relatively good shooting game (3-5 FG, 1-2 on 3FG, 2-2 FT) but didn't back it up with his usual array of AST and STL (2 AST, 0 STL).  He still committed 2 TO's, and his 26 minutes assigns a fair amount of the blame for the loss to him.  Chalmers didn't shoot particularly well (2-6 FG, 1-2 on 3FG) but did grab 5 REB, 2 AST, 3 STL and just 1 TO, though he did foul out.  Arthur tied Wright for leading scorer honors and tied Rush with 6 rebounds for leading in that category.  He missed both his FT's, shot 6-13 FG, had 2 TO's and a surprising 0 BLK.

Another tough shooting night for Brandon Rush (4-14 FG, 2-6 on 3FG) drags his rating down.  He just missed so many shots but did somewhat compensate with 6 REB (3 O-REB), 3 AST and 1 STL.  He struggled with 3 TO's though.