Sports and Numbers

Oakland at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.  For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.  PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency.  The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

It is certainly no surprise to most to see Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins atop any ratings system for Kansas.  After all, they're both preseason All-Americans.  What's surprising so far is that Markieff Morris has better efficiency numbers on the season.  In fact, aside from the poor start from Tyshawn Taylor (last in both impact and efficiency), all of the other KU starters are also the most efficient on the team.  (C.J. Henry's stats technically "count" above, but that's because in his one game he averaged above the 8 min/g I use for the season cumulative stats.  I wouldn't put him in the same category as others just yet.)  Stats would argue that Reed should start over Taylor based solely on this season's numbers, but of course we know it's too early for numbers to tell a lot of the story, and Taylor could turn things around.

Aside from Xavier Henry's solid start to the season, the KU freshmen are not looking great right now.  Robinson's really struggling on offense, but his defense has been second best on the team in efficiency.  If he can get some shots to drop, things could change in a hurry this early in the season.

Oakland won't turn too many heads on paper.  The only way they're going to make the postseason is an automatic bid.  They have absolutely no quality wins and lost at home to Eastern Michigan (3-2) in the season opener.  But they do return two frontcourt players from last year's team who ranked well in Dean Oliver's Offensive Rating numbers (Keith Benson #14 and Will Hudson #65).  Both are great shooters, rebounders and shot-blockers, although Benson is signficantly better in each of those categories.  In fact, this season Benson's defensive efficiency are almost Aldrich-esque (-4.35 vs Aldrich's -4.66 - remember negative is better on defense).  Alas, when you look at the overall picture, aside from Benson, nobody has had a very good season for Oakland.  Larry Wright is probably the biggest drag so far, but there are a number of others who are on the wrong side of zero on both offense and defense.

Last 7 Game Analysis

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 1.7% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing.  If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas.  In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added.  That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late.  This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games.  The results are what you see in the table.)

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:

ANALYSIS:  If not for the free throw line, Oakland might be staring at a winless record.  It's mostly their ability to get to the line, but they've also shot somewhat better than their opponents at the stripe.  A close second to FT attempts advantage is OREB%, where they've held a robust 10% advantage over opponents.  It's hard to believe this would hold against KU's frontline, but it is nonetheless a strength that the Jayhawks must be prepared to battle.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: None.

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary