Sports and Numbers

Michigan at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.  For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.  PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency.  The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Last 7 Game Analysis

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 1.2% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing.  If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas.  In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added.  That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late.  This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games.  The results are what you see in the table.)

Similar Opponent Analysis

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 0.6% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Similar Opponent Analysis: Here, we look at games against opponents with similar offensive and defensive profiles to the opponent of interest to see how the teams are performing.  For Kansas, we would look at its offensive performances against teams that have a defense that is within 5 pts/100 possessions efficiency above or below that of the opponent in this game.  If this does not result in at least three appropriate comparisons, the threshold will be adjusted until it finds three.  If there are more than three that are within the original threshold, all of those will be used.  The same is done for defense but using offensive profiles of opponents.  The analysis splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games.  The results are what you see in the table.)

Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for each team, we can look at the Four Factors to see where each team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  For each team, Team 1 is the team itself and Team 2 is its opponents.  Here is the breakdown:

ANALYSIS:  Both teams have taken advantage of getting to the FT line more often than opponents, and both have done an excellent job of winning the turnover battle.  But the single most important factor of all, eFG%, provides the most stark contrast between these two teams.  KU dominates on both sides of the equation, while UM is about average on offensive and defensive eFG%.  The battle of the boards has been another big boost for the Jayhawks, while the Wolverines have seen their single biggest disadvantage manifested there.  Unfortunately for Michigan fans, it doesn't look like any of UM's advantages play to KU's less significant advantages.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: Brady Morningstar to play 15 minutes.  His end-of-season stats from last year are used for this projection.

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary