Sports and Numbers

Kansas State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.  For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.  PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency.  The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Last 7 Game Projection

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 4.5% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing.  If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas.  In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added.  That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late.  This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games.  The results are what you see in the table.)

Similar Opponent Projection

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 4.7% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Similar Opponent Analysis: Here, we look at games against opponents with similar offensive and defensive profiles to the opponent of interest to see how the teams are performing.  For Kansas, we would look at its offensive performances against teams that have a defense that is within 5 pts/100 possessions efficiency above or below that of the opponent in this game.  If this does not result in at least three appropriate comparisons, the threshold will be adjusted until it finds three.  If there are more than three that are within the original threshold, all of those will be used.  The same is done for defense but using offensive profiles of opponents.  The analysis splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games.  The results are what you see in the table.)

Season Performance Trends

The charts below show the trend for each team's performance this season.  For each game, a team's offensive, defensive and overall performance is standardized.  Thus, performance indicates how many points per 100 possessions a team would score (offense), yield (defense) or net (average of offense and inverse defense) for a game.  It is based purely on its opponent's adjusted efficiencies and the resulting efficiency of the game played.  The dotted lines represent the best-fit line (linear regression), indicating which way a team may be trending for the season overall.

ANALYSIS:  The trends clearly favor KSU.  Kansas has a flat offensive trendline with a clearly worsening defensive trend.  The Wildcats have a flat offensive trend as well, but their defense is sloping the right direction.  In fact, the overall trendline for K-State puts them at a higher rating coming into this game than Kansas, but the homecourt edge would offset that enough to make it essentially a toss-up.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: None.

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary