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Preview: Central Arkansas at Kansas |
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Nov 19, 2009 |
Kansas vs Central Arkansas (Lawrence, KS)| | Kansas | Central Arkansas
| Performance Indicators
| | | | Record | 2-0 | 1-1 | | AP Rank | 1 | NR
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 104
(too early to matter)
| 282
(too early to matter)
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 1
(reflects many computer polls that don't have enough data yet)
| 328
(reflects many computer polls that don't have enough data yet)
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Memphis (#122) W 57-55
vs Hofstra (#298) W 101-65 | vs Hendrix (NR) W 68-40 | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 8 Forecast: 1
(too early to matter) | Current: 286 Forecast: 323
(too early to matter) | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by TBD
Est. Projection: TBD
| | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by TBD
(not enough data) | | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 34.9
(not enough data)
| | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win by 111-56
(No % chance of victory supplied)
(not enough data)
(used raw tempo because adjusted tempo was unreasonably high) | | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | Win by 35.3
(not enough data) | |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 15.17 | -4.80 | 19.98 | | Xavier Henry | 12.71 | -1.45 | 14.17 | | Sherron Collins | 12.31 | -0.30 | 12.60 | | Markieff Morris | 5.37 | -1.55 | 6.92 | | Marcus Morris | 8.00 | 2.27 | 5.74 | | Elijah Johnson | 2.50 | 0.53 | 1.97 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.05 | -0.77 | 1.81 | | Chase Buford* | 0.86 | 0.25 | 0.62 | | Conner Teahan | -0.24 | -0.46 | 0.23 | | Tyrel Reed | -0.68 | -0.14 | -0.54 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.68 | 0.00 | -0.68 | | Thomas Robinson | -3.56 | -0.30 | -3.26 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 10.97 | -3.47 | 14.44 | | Markieff Morris | 7.76 | -2.25 | 10.00 | | Xavier Henry | 8.88 | -1.01 | 9.89 | | Sherron Collins | 7.84 | -0.19 | 8.03 | | Chase Buford* | 7.84 | 2.24 | 5.60 | | Marcus Morris | 5.92 | 1.67 | 4.24 | | Elijah Johnson | 3.93 | 0.83 | 3.10 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 0.71 | -0.52 | 1.22 | | Conner Teahan | -1.07 | -2.10 | 1.03 | | Tyrel Reed | -0.80 | -0.16 | -0.64 | | Thomas Robinson | -6.89 | -0.58 | -6.31 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -8.24 | 0.00 | -8.24 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Central Arkansas
Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Chris Williams* | 1.54 | -1.44 | 2.97 | | T.K. Smith* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Tadre Sheppard | 0.34 | 0.40 | -0.06 | | Quad Sanders* | -0.63 | -0.44 | -0.18 | | Carlos dos Santos | 1.81 | 2.25 | -0.44 | | Robert Crawford* | -1.88 | -1.37 | -0.50 | | Chris Henson* | -3.13 | -1.16 | -1.97 | | Ryan Daniels | -1.21 | 1.57 | -2.78 | | Mike Pouncy | -0.63 | 3.89 | -4.52 | | Mitch Rueter | -1.03 | 3.86 | -4.89 | | Dewan Clayborn | -4.94 | 1.12 | -6.06 | | Jared Rehmel | -2.33 | 4.81 | -7.14 | | Imad Qahwash | -6.70 | 2.71 | -9.41 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Chris Williams* | 3.97 | -3.71 | 7.67 | | T.K. Smith* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Tadre Sheppard | 0.27 | 0.32 | -0.05 | | Carlos dos Santos | 1.75 | 2.18 | -0.43 | | Quad Sanders* | -6.06 | -4.29 | -1.77 | | Robert Crawford* | -8.08 | -5.91 | -2.17 | | Mitch Rueter | -0.73 | 2.72 | -3.44 | | Ryan Daniels | -1.67 | 2.17 | -3.84 | | Mike Pouncy | -0.54 | 3.35 | -3.89 | | Jared Rehmel | -1.29 | 2.66 | -3.95 | | Dewan Clayborn | -5.63 | 1.28 | -6.91 | | Imad Qahwash | -6.18 | 2.50 | -8.67 | | Chris Henson* | -15.16 | -5.60 | -9.56 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | Cent-Ark | Opp | Advantage | | | eFG% | 41.80% | 40.71% | 2.6 | | | TO Rate | 20.06% | 26.97% | 8.5 | | | OREB% | 32.94% | 31.65% | 0.9 | | | FTA/FGA | 27.05% | 16.81% | 4.2 | FT Pct | | | | | 9.8 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: Still early in the season, but basically it looks like Central Arkansas has used the FT line as its biggest advantage, with TO's as another significant boost. Even in their lone game against a D-I opponent, those two areas were strengths. Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Central Arkansas | | Central Arkansas 3pt FG% | | | | Central Arkansas eFG%** | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss** | | | | Kansas OREB | | | | Central Arkansas % own 2FGA's blocked** | | | | Kansas 2pt FG% | | | | Kansas eFG% | | | | Kansas FT Rate** | | | | | Central Arkansas FT% | | | | Kansas 3pt FG% | | | | Central Arkansas 2pt FG% | | | | Central Arkansas OREB | | | | Central Arkansas PTS/Poss | | | | Central Arkansas FT Rate | | | | Central Arkansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Kansas FT% | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | Central Arkansas TO rate | | | | | Kansas TO rate | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | ************************************************************* | Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Central Arkansas will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Central Arkansas will have below avg % of FG's assisted | | Kansas plays faster tempo than Central Arkansas |
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Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: None.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 94 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Central Arkansas | 57 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Chase Buford | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 26 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | | Conner Teahan | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Elijah Johnson | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | Jordan Juenemann | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Marcus Morris | 26 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Sherron Collins | 30 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Thomas Robinson | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | | Xavier Henry | 27 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | TOTALS | 200 | 26 | 44 | 6 | 16 | 24 | 36 | 94 | 21 | 27 | 48 | 16 | 18 | 5 | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Central Arkansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Carlos dos Santos | 22 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | | Chris Williams | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Dewan Clayborn | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | Imad Qahwash | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | Jared Rehmel | 39 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | | Mike Pouncy | 25 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Mitch Rueter | 30 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Ryan Daniels | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | | Tadre Sheppard | 26 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | TOTALS | 200 | 18 | 37 | 2 | 21 | 15 | 23 | 57 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 4 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 94-67 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 72 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 58-36% | | | TO Rate (lo better) | CAU 25-22% |
| | O-Reb% | KU 58-31%
| | | FT Rate | KU 60-40%
| | Four Factors Overall
| Except for turnovers, it should be domination across the board for KU.
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| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Henry, Aldrich Opp - Pouncy, Santos | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Sheppard | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Sheppard | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - None Opp - Pouncy, Sheppard | All KU players projected to be less efficient than season averages.
| | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Henry, Robinson Opp - Rehmel | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 94-67(not all prediction models included/complete) |
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