Texas at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)| | Kansas | Texas
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 24-6 (13-2) | 20-9 (9-6) | | AP Rank | 9
| NR
(32nd most votes)
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 11
| 27 | Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 6
| 29
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Missouri (#10) W 90-65
vs Washington (#14) W 73-54 | vs UCLA (#6) W 68-64
vs Oklahoma (#15) W 73-68
| RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 8 Forecast: 8 | Current: 36 Forecast: 33 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 8
Est. Projection: 74-66 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by 8.6 | | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 7.0 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 72-64
79% chance of victory | | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | Win by 17.9
| | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | Est. Projection: 78-67
69% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | Win by 9.4
Est. Projection: 75-65 | |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 99.89 | -104.95 | 204.84 | | Sherron Collins | 46.28 | -29.81 | 76.09 | | Brady Morningstar | 31.62 | -35.94 | 67.56 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 33.71 | -19.37 | 53.09 | | Marcus Morris | 17.83 | -30.74 | 48.57 | | Markieff Morris | 9.11 | -23.09 | 32.19 | | Mario Little | 18.77 | -12.69 | 31.46 | | Tyrel Reed | 22.16 | -9.08 | 31.24 | | Travis Releford* | 7.46 | -9.25 | 16.71 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 1.54 | -4.21 | 5.75 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.73 | -1.19 | 2.92 | | Chase Buford* | -0.95 | -0.34 | -0.61 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.58 | 0.19 | -0.77 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -1.32 | 0.64 | -1.95 | | Brennan Bechard* | -2.19 | 0.78 | -2.97 | | Conner Teahan* | -5.50 | -1.29 | -4.21 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 4.45 | -4.67 | 9.12 | | Mario Little | 2.55 | -1.72 | 4.27 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 2.51 | -1.72 | 4.23 | | Marcus Morris | 1.31 | -2.26 | 3.57 | | Travis Releford* | 1.42 | -1.76 | 3.18 | | Brady Morningstar | 1.38 | -1.57 | 2.96 | | Markieff Morris | 0.82 | -2.08 | 2.90 | | Sherron Collins | 1.74 | -1.12 | 2.87 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.73 | -0.99 | 2.72 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.42 | -0.58 | 1.99 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 0.53 | -1.46 | 1.99 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -1.45 | 0.70 | -2.15 | | Chase Buford* | -3.44 | -1.23 | -2.21 | | Conner Teahan* | -3.75 | -0.88 | -2.87 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -5.98 | 1.98 | -7.96 | | Brennan Bechard* | -7.13 | 2.55 | -9.67 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Texas Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Damion James | 51.96 | -73.84 | 125.81 | | Dexter Pittman | 64.93 | -19.43 | 84.36 | | A.J. Abrams | 43.83 | -0.47 | 44.30 | | Gary Johnson | 10.55 | -33.50 | 44.04 | | Connor Atchley | 12.06 | -25.20 | 37.26 | | Justin Mason | 10.61 | -22.11 | 32.72 | | Dogus Balbay | 1.05 | -11.96 | 13.01 | | Matt Hill* | 1.59 | -5.35 | 6.94 | | Harrison Smith* | 1.37 | -2.55 | 3.92 | | Clint Chapman* | -12.22 | -14.09 | 1.87 | | Varez Ward | -16.82 | -1.97 | -14.85 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Dexter Pittman | 6.43 | -1.92 | 8.35 | | Damion James | 2.52 | -3.58 | 6.10 | | Gary Johnson | 0.68 | -2.17 | 2.86 | | Connor Atchley | 0.92 | -1.92 | 2.84 | | Matt Hill* | 0.54 | -1.81 | 2.35 | | Harrison Smith* | 0.72 | -1.34 | 2.06 | | A.J. Abrams | 1.67 | -0.02 | 1.69 | | Justin Mason | 0.50 | -1.04 | 1.53 | | Dogus Balbay | 0.08 | -0.90 | 0.98 | | Clint Chapman* | -2.30 | -2.65 | 0.35 | | Varez Ward | -1.73 | -0.20 | -1.53 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Texas | | Expected Score | 77.9 | 67.1 | | Win | 69.3% | 30.7% | | Win by 3 or less | 5.3% | 5.0% | | Win by 10 or more | 50.4% | 15.9% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 3.3% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Team 1 is KU's opponent, while Team 2 represents that team's opponents. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | Team 1 | Team 2 | Advantage | | | eFG% | 47.94% | 46.09% | 62.5 | | | TO Rate | 17.92% | 20.92% | 60.0 | | | OREB% | 39.10% | 31.96% | 77.5 | | | FTA/FGA | 25.39% | 23.09% | 12.0 | FT Pct | | | | | 53.0 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: While people knock Texas for its lack of offense (a legitimate gripe), the Longhorns have managed to gain healthy advantages in all of the major statistical factors. They keep their opponents' shooting percentages low enough to have a nice margin in eFG% and manage to bully their opponents on the boards for an even bigger advantage there. There is no relief for UT opponents at the free throw line or in ball control measures. This is probably one of the country's most balanced statistical profiles when it comes to margin gained from each category. Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: None.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 69 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Texas | 61 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 32 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 31 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | Marcus Morris | 19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Mario Little | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 37 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 27 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 16 | 34 | 6 | 16 | 19 | 26 | 69 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 12 | 17 | 7 | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Texas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | A.J. Abrams | 40 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Clint Chapman | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Connor Atchley | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Damion James | 32 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Dexter Pittman | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Dogus Balbay | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Gary Johnson | 27 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Justin Mason | 33 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Varez Ward | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 15 | 36 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 24 | 61 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 4 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 69-61 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 69 | | PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Abrams, James | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Atchley | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Atchley | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Morningstar, Aldrich Opp - Atchley, Johnson | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Marcus Morris Opp - Balbay, Mason | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 69-61(all prediction models included/complete) |
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