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Preview: Texas A&M at Kansas

Jan 19, 2009

Texas A&M at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Texas A&M
Performance Indicators
Record (conference)	13-4 (2-0)	15-3 (1-2)
AP Rank	NR (38th most votes) (last week)	NR (43rd most votes) (last week)
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	21	72
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	37 (last week)	56 (last week)
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Washington (#20) W 73-54 vs Kansas St. (#32) W 87-71	vs Baylor (#34) W 84-73 vs Arizona (#49) W 67-66
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .)	Current: 37 Forecast: 20	Current: 41 Forecast: 55
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 10.5 Est. Projection: 74-63
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 11.5
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 12.8
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 73-61 88% chance of victory
TeamRankings.com (Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.)	Win by 16.0
AccuScore Game Forecast (Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.)	Est. Projection: 77-64 85% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court)	Est. Projection: 80-66 82% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7)	Win by 12.2 Est. Projection: 76-64

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Kansas

Impact Ratings

PLAYER	ePSAN-O	ePSAN-D	ePSAN-Comp
Cole Aldrich	66.93	-52.40	119.33
Sherron Collins	29.27	-8.63	37.90
Brady Morningstar	24.12	-9.68	33.80
Marcus Morris	12.79	-17.82	30.61
Tyshawn Taylor	16.95	-9.61	26.55
Markieff Morris	12.49	-12.04	24.53
Tyrel Reed	18.11	-3.96	22.07
Quintrell Thomas*	3.60	-5.47	9.08
Travis Releford*	-0.07	-3.39	3.32
Matt Kleinmann*	0.99	-0.56	1.55
Mario Little	0.68	-0.49	1.17
Chase Buford*	1.03	0.17	0.86
Tyrone Appleton*	-0.49	0.16	-0.64
Jordan Juenemann*	-0.91	0.30	-1.21
Brennan Bechard*	-2.56	0.19	-2.74
Conner Teahan*	-5.60	-2.13	-3.47

Efficiency Ratings

PLAYER	ePSAN70-O	ePSAN70-D	ePSAN70-Comp
Cole Aldrich	5.48	-4.29	9.77
Chase Buford*	5.42	0.90	4.52
Marcus Morris	1.63	-2.28	3.91
Quintrell Thomas*	1.49	-2.26	3.76
Markieff Morris	1.64	-1.58	3.21
Brady Morningstar	1.97	-0.79	2.76
Sherron Collins	2.03	-0.60	2.63
Matt Kleinmann*	1.51	-0.86	2.37
Tyrel Reed	1.94	-0.43	2.37
Tyshawn Taylor	1.50	-0.85	2.34
Travis Releford*	-0.02	-0.99	0.97
Mario Little	0.50	-0.36	0.87
Tyrone Appleton*	-0.78	0.25	-1.02
Conner Teahan*	-3.47	-1.32	-2.15
Brennan Bechard*	-10.80	0.79	-11.58
Jordan Juenemann*	-9.97	3.30	-13.27

* Rating not based on enough data.

Texas A&M

Impact Ratings

PLAYER	PSAN-O	PSAN-D	PSAN-Comp
Chinemelu Elonu	47.22	-21.12	68.34
Josh Carter	41.01	-8.59	49.60
Bryan Davis	6.93	-19.46	26.39
B.J. Holmes	21.93	-4.25	26.17
Nathan Walkup	4.61	-1.77	6.39
Donald Sloan	-7.36	-12.64	5.28
Chris Chapman*	1.13	-0.13	1.25
Denzel Bowles*	0.18	-0.39	0.58
James Blasczyk*	0.00	-0.37	0.37
Derrek Lewis*	-0.32	-0.28	-0.04
Marshall Carrell*	-0.81	0.00	-0.81
Shawn Schepel*	-0.73	0.12	-0.85
David Loubeau	-2.10	0.90	-3.00
Andrew Darko*	-4.58	-0.38	-4.20
Dash Harris	-22.19	-3.86	-18.33
Derrick Roland	-12.35	9.03	-21.3

Efficiency Ratings

PLAYER	PSAN70-O	PSAN70-D	PSAN70-Comp
Chris Chapman*	16.29	-1.83	18.11
James Blasczyk*	0.00	-8.05	8.05
Chinemelu Elonu	4.77	-2.13	6.91
Josh Carter	3.16	-0.66	3.83
B.J. Holmes	2.27	-0.44	2.71
Bryan Davis	0.62	-1.75	2.38
Nathan Walkup	0.85	-0.33	1.18
Denzel Bowles*	0.16	-0.35	0.51
Donald Sloan	-0.58	-1.00	0.42
Derrek Lewis*	-1.16	-1.03	-0.14
David Loubeau	-0.39	0.17	-0.56
Derrick Roland	-1.34	0.98	-2.32
Dash Harris	-4.17	-0.72	-3.44
Shawn Schepel*	-5.30	0.86	-6.15
Andrew Darko*	-12.41	-1.03	-11.38
Marshall Carrell*	-11.69	0.00	-11.69

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

A clear mismatch in player talent, according to the ratings above. Neither team has a long list of impressive efficiency numbers, but at least KU has a stellar one at the top (Aldrich) and basically has no one below a 2.00, except for the recovering Mario Little. Meanwhile, the Aggies have only three others besides Elonu who have a rating above 2.00. Dash Harris, in particular, has really hurt the team statistically, with a pitiful 24 eFG% and a whopping 34% turnover rate.

Last 7 Game Analysis

	Kansas	Texas A&M
Expected Score	80.1	66.4
Win	81.6%	18.4%
Win by 3 or less	5.7%	4.6%
Win by 10 or more	59.7%	6.4%

Down to the Wire?

Margin of game was less than 1 point in 3.7% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.)

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Team 1 is KU's opponent, while Team 2 represents that team's opponents. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:

	Team 1	Team 2	Advantage
eFG%	48.78%	47.13%	32.5
TO Rate	18.37%	21.62%	39.1
OREB%	36.83%	30.55%	40.8
FTA/FGA	45.52%	29.10%	11.4	FT Pct
			109.6	FT Attempts

ANALYSIS: This is a highly unusual profile. Look at the tremendous advantage the Aggies have gained as a result of free throw attempts! They are solid, in that none of the factors have been a disadvantage. One of the keys to this game will be whether Texas A&M can continue to get to the line and do it with greater frequency than the Jayhawks.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Texas A&M
Texas A&M % own 2FGA's blocked**
Texas A&M 2pt FG%**
Kansas 3pt FG%
Texas A&M eFG%**
Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
	Kansas eFG%
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Texas A&M PTS/Poss
	Kansas OREB
	Kansas TO rate
	Kansas 2pt FG%
	Kansas FT%
	Kansas FT Rate
	Texas A&M OREB
	Texas A&M 3pt FG%
	Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
		Texas A&M % Poss STL by Opp**
		Texas A&M FT%
		Texas A&M TO rate**
		Texas A&M FT Rate**

*************************************************************

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Texas A&M will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Kansas plays faster tempo than Texas A&M

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: None.

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	73
Texas A&M	59

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brady Morningstar	32	1	2	2	3	1	1	9	1	2	3	3	1	1	0
Cole Aldrich	32	5	8	0	0	3	4	13	3	6	9	1	2	1	4
Marcus Morris	15	3	6	0	0	1	2	7	2	3	5	1	2	1	1
Mario Little	7	1	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	1	1	0	0
Markieff Morris	15	1	3	0	1	1	2	3	1	3	4	1	1	0	1
Sherron Collins	37	3	8	2	6	4	4	16	1	2	3	5	3	1	0
Travis Releford	7	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Tyrel Reed	25	1	1	2	4	1	2	9	0	1	1	2	1	1	0
Tyshawn Taylor	30	3	5	1	2	2	3	11	0	2	2	3	2	1	0
TOTALS	200	19	36	7	16	14	20	73	10	22	32	17	14	6	6

Texas A&M
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
B.J. Holmes	25	1	2	1	4	2	3	7	1	1	2	1	1	1	0
Bryan Davis	30	3	6	0	0	3	5	9	1	3	4	1	3	1	1
Chinemelu Elonu	26	3	6	0	0	2	3	8	3	4	7	0	2	0	1
Dash Harris	8	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	1	0
David Loubeau	8	1	4	0	0	1	2	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Derrick Roland	27	1	3	1	2	1	1	6	1	1	2	1	2	0	0
Donald Sloan	33	2	7	1	2	4	5	11	0	3	3	3	2	1	0
Josh Carter	34	1	4	2	5	3	4	11	1	2	3	2	1	1	1
Nathan Walkup	9	1	1	0	1	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	0
TOTALS	200	13	34	5	14	18	25	59	9	18	27	9	15	5	3

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 73-59
Tempo (# poss)	65
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 57-43%
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 23-22%
O-Reb%	KU 36-29%
FT Rate	TAMU 52-38%
Four Factors Overall	The expected FT advantage for Texas A&M won't mean much if the projected eFG% advantage materializes.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Carter/Sloan
Highest PSAN-Comp (game impact)	KU - Aldrich Opp - Elonu
Highest PSAN70-Comp (efficiency)	KU - Aldrich Opp - Elonu
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Morningstar, Reed Opp - None	No Aggies are projected to do better than their averages.
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Markieff Morris, Collins Opp - Elonu, Holmes