Sports and Numbers

Siena at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.  For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.  PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency.  The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Siena has surprised some people with their strong season thus far.  The bulk of the contributions have come from Rossiter and Franklin, but Rossiter has been much more efficient.  While both shoot the ball similarly well from the field, Rossiter has the edge in FT%, OREB% and BLK.  On paper, it is clear that Siena doesn't have the roster talent to compete if KU is playing well.  Given the inconsistency we've seen from the Jayhawks this season though (bottom 25% in country), you just never know which KU team will show up, particularly after an emotional victory over Tennessee three days earlier.

If Siena is to have a chance, they must limit the damage that some of their negative rated players inflict.  For a guy shooting 40 eFG%, Hasbrouck sure uses up a lot of possessions (24.3%).  But then, he's a senior guard who is used to shooting above 50 eFG% and having much better overall efficiency on offense.  In a game like this, he could actually be the guy who steps it up.  You can't say the same for Jackson, a sophomore guard, who uses up even more possessions (27.9%) while shooting only 46 eFG%.  While Hasbrouck balances his TO's with roughly equal AST numbers, Jackson has an anemic 0.2 AST:TO ratio.  You're not in good hands there. 

Last 7 Game Analysis

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 4.2% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing.  If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas.  In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added.  That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late.  This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games.  The results are what you see in the table.)

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:

ANALYSIS:  Siena struggles on the boards, but otherwise they've done quite well in most everything.  Interestingly, their single biggest advantage has been FT attempts, which is something that could well be continued against Kansas, which has tended to give up lots of them.  The turnover advantage could also carry into this game.  But the eFG% advantage is derived mostly from their opposition's low %, because Siena has not shot well.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: None.

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary