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Preview: Oklahoma State at Kansas

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Feb 7, 2009

Oklahoma State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Oklahoma State
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 11.5 Est. Projection: 83-72
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 9.7
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 8.3
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 84-73 83% chance of victory
TeamRankings.com (Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.)	Win by 12.8
AccuScore Game Forecast (Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.)	Win by 12.6 Est. Projection: 84-71 83% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court)	Est. Projection: 89-76 80% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7)	Win by 11.6 Est. Projection: 84-73

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: Mario Little playing time higher than automatic projection.

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	80
Oklahoma St.	71

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brady Morningstar	33	1	2	2	3	1	2	9	1	2	3	2	2	1	0
Cole Aldrich	31	5	8	0	0	5	6	15	3	7	10	1	2	1	2
Marcus Morris	14	2	5	0	0	2	4	6	2	3	5	1	2	1	0
Mario Little	15	2	2	0	1	2	2	6	1	2	3	1	1	0	0
Markieff Morris	12	1	2	0	0	2	3	4	1	3	4	1	2	0	1
Sherron Collins	37	4	8	2	6	5	6	19	0	2	2	4	4	1	0
Travis Releford	6	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Tyrel Reed	23	1	1	1	4	2	2	7	0	2	2	1	1	1	0
Tyshawn Taylor	29	3	5	1	2	3	4	12	0	2	2	3	3	1	1
TOTALS	200	20	35	6	16	22	30	80	9	24	33	14	18	6	4

Oklahoma St.
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Anthony Brown	10	1	2	0	0	1	2	3	1	1	2	0	0	1	1
Byron Eaton	34	3	7	1	2	6	8	15	0	2	2	5	4	2	0
James Anderson	36	2	5	2	5	4	5	14	1	3	4	1	2	1	1
Keiton Page	26	1	2	2	4	2	2	10	0	1	1	1	2	1	0
Malcoln Kirkland	7	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Marshall Moses	10	1	4	0	0	1	2	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	0
Nick Sidorakis	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Obi Muonelo	38	2	5	2	6	1	2	11	1	5	6	2	2	1	0
Terrel Harris	35	3	6	1	2	3	4	12	1	3	4	2	3	2	0
TOTALS	200	14	33	8	20	19	26	71	6	18	24	11	15	8	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 80-71
Tempo (# poss)	73
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 57-49%
TO Rate (lo better)	OSU 25-20%
O-Reb%	KU 33-20%
FT Rate	KU 59-49%
Four Factors Overall	Aside from turning it over more often, KU should have advantages in every aspect of the game.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Eaton, Anderson
Highest PSAN-Comp (game impact)	KU - Aldrich Opp - Harris
Highest PSAN70-Comp (efficiency)	KU - Aldrich Opp - Brown
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Taylor, Little Opp - Brown, Page
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Marcus Morris, Collins Opp - Moses, Muonelo

Sports and Numbers Projection

Kansas wins 80-71

(all prediction models included/complete)

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