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Preview: Nebraska at Kansas

Feb 21, 2009

Nebraska at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Nebraska
Performance Indicators
Record (conference)	21-5 (10-1)	16-8 (6-5)
AP Rank	15	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	11	64
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	12	66
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Washington (#20) W 73-54 home and away vs Kansas St. (#36)	vs Missouri (#8) W 56-51 vs Texas (#28) W 58-55
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .)	Current: 8 Forecast: 8	Current: 67 Forecast: 68
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 12.0 Est. Projection: 69-57
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 12.9
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 11.7
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 67-56 89% chance of victory
TeamRankings.com (Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.)	Win by 16.5
AccuScore Game Forecast (Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.)	Win by 12.8 Est. Projection: 73-60 85% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court)	Win by 14.4 Est. Projection: 67-53 83% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7)	Win by 12.9 Est. Projection: 69-56

Last 7 Game Analysis

	Kansas	Nebraska
Expected Score	67.4	53.0
Win	83.1%	16.9%
Win by 3 or less	5.7%	4.6%
Win by 10 or more	61.3%	5.3%

Down to the Wire?

Margin of game was less than 1 point in 3.3% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.)

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 344 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Nebraska
Offense #28 - Defense #11 - Tempo #96 Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#16 eFG%, #10 opp eFG%) Terrible ball handling (#252 TO%) Particularly good at controlling 2FG% (#27 own, #8 opp) Control offensive rebounding on both sides (#37 own, #48 limit opp) Excellent perimeter shooting (#33 in 3FG%) Money from the FT line (#37 in FT%) Great job on defense of BLK (#28) Allow opp high % of FG's assisted (#263) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse) Tall: C Short: SF Effective Height: #36 Other Factors: Team is #335 in experience Team is #270 in Bench Minutes Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - PG ... Lo - SG, SF Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 15) Sherron Collins - #126 AST rate Brady Morningstar - #61 eFG% Cole Aldrich - #54 eFG%, #155 OREB%, #13 DREB%, #36 BLK% Marcus Morris - #27 OREB%, #110 STL%, #147 PF's drawn/40 min	Offense #149 - Defense #17 - Tempo #305 Win the ballhandling game with ease (#48 limit own TO%, #2 forcing opp TO%) Anemic offensive rebounding (#338) Rarely block opp 2FGA's (#263 BLK%) STL% advantage on both sides (#49 limit own, #5 STL% on def) Opp take very high % of FG's from behind arc (#312 in limiting opp) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse) Tall: None Short: All positions in bottom 20 Effective Height: #344 (LOWEST IN NATION!) Other Factors: Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - None ... Lo - None Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 15) Steve Harley - #145 TO Rate (lo), #173 STL% Cookie Miller - #160 AST Rate, #149 STL% Ade Dagunduro - #191 FT Rate, #150 STL% Paul Velander - #32 TO Rate (lo) Ryan Anderson - #93 STL%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies somewhat less on 3FG's, while its opponents rely unusually low on 2FG's. On offense, NU relies much more on 3FG's than 2FG's, while its opponents have the same profile.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Nebraska
Nebraska OREB**
Kansas FT%**
Nebraska % own 2FGA's blocked**
Nebraska 2pt FG%**
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
Nebraska PTS/Poss**
Kansas FT Rate
Kansas eFG%**
Kansas 2pt FG%**
	Nebraska eFG%
Kansas 3pt FG%**
	Kansas OREB
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Nebraska 3pt FG%
		Nebraska % Poss STL by Opp**
	Nebraska FT%
	Nebraska FT Rate
		Nebraska TO rate**
		Kansas % Poss STL by Opp**
		Kansas TO rate**

*************************************************************

Nebraska will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Nebraska will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Kansas plays faster tempo than Nebraska

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: None.

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	66
Nebraska	51

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brady Morningstar	32	1	1	2	3	1	1	9	1	2	3	2	2	1	0
Cole Aldrich	31	4	7	0	0	3	4	11	2	7	9	1	2	1	3
Marcus Morris	19	2	4	0	1	2	3	6	2	3	5	1	2	1	0
Mario Little	10	2	3	0	0	1	1	5	1	2	3	1	1	0	0
Markieff Morris	16	1	2	0	0	1	2	3	1	3	4	1	2	0	1
Sherron Collins	36	3	6	2	5	4	5	16	0	2	2	4	5	1	0
Travis Releford	6	1	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Tyrel Reed	23	0	1	1	4	1	2	4	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
Tyshawn Taylor	27	2	4	1	2	2	3	9	0	2	2	2	3	1	0
TOTALS	200	16	29	6	15	16	22	66	8	23	31	13	19	6	4

Nebraska
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Ade Dagunduro	27	3	7	0	1	4	5	10	1	2	3	1	3	1	1
Brandon Richardson	10	0	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
Cookie Miller	31	1	4	1	2	2	2	7	0	2	2	3	3	2	0
Paul Velander	26	0	0	2	5	1	1	7	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
Ryan Anderson	27	1	3	1	2	1	2	6	1	3	4	1	1	1	0
Sek Henry	28	1	3	1	2	2	3	7	1	2	3	2	2	1	0
Steve Harley	33	3	7	0	2	2	4	8	0	3	3	2	2	2	0
Toney McCray	18	2	4	0	1	1	1	5	1	2	3	0	2	1	1
TOTALS	200	11	29	5	16	14	20	51	4	16	20	10	15	9	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 66-51
Tempo (# poss)	65
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 57-41%
TO Rate (lo better)	NU 29-23%	Get ready for another turnover festival from the Jayhawks. Should be interesting to see if NU actually does have this high a TO% of its own though.
O-Reb%	KU 33-15%	Combined with 41 eFG%, you can see why NU is only projected to score 51.
FT Rate	KU 50-44%
Four Factors Overall	The extreme advantage in eFG% overshadows all, as KU should coast to victory on that alone.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Dagunduro, Harley
Highest PSAN-Comp (game impact)	KU - Aldrich Opp - Anderson
Highest PSAN70-Comp (efficiency)	KU - Little Opp - McCray
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Little, Morningstar Opp - None	Unusual not to have any players expected to play better than usual.
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Reed, Marcus Morris Opp - Richardson, Dagunduro	Reed is only KU player expected to have a significantly worse game than usual. But with his game, one more made 3FG could be the difference.