Sports and Numbers

Kent State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.  For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.  PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency.  The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Statistically speaking, this is definitely Cole Aldrich's team.  Whether Brady Morningstar will continue to be a positive contributor depends on how he does against the meat of the schedule.  Kent State is actually not a very weak opponent based on data so far, so this will actually be a nice test for Morningstar.  Sherron Collins needs to get back on track on both ends of the court statistically, if the numbers are to begin conforming to what most people believe subjectively -- that Collins is the leader of this team.

Just a few quick notes on Kent State's players.  While KU has one player with the most overall impact on offense and defense (Aldrich), that is not so with KSU.  It's clear that Al Fisher has led the way on offense, while Anthony Simpson has dominated the bulk of contributions on defense.  Interestingly enough, it is Justin Greene who's been the most efficient overall, but he just hasn't played enough minutes to make his overall impact at the level of guys like Parks and Sullinger.

Last 7 Game Analysis

Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing.  If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas.  In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added.  That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late.  This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 5,000 games.  The results are what you see below.

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 3.2% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:

ANALYSIS:  It is clear where KSU had derived its greatest advantage -- turnovers.  They force more than twice as many turnovers as they commit.  Combined with a small eFG% advantage (the most important of the Four Factors, followed by TO Rate), they have managed their winning record thus far.  The free throw line has not been kind in any way, where KSU's FT% is #325 in the country (out of 344), but they are not even taking as many as their opponents.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore