Kansas vs North Dakota State (NCAA Tournament 1st Round - Minneapolis, MN)| | Kansas | North Dakota State
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 25-7 | 26-6 | | AP Rank | 14
| NR
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 11
| 66
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 10
| 75
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Missouri (#10) W 90-65
vs Washington (#16) W 73-54 | @ Oral Roberts (#87) W 75-72
vs Oakland (#103) W 66-64
| RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 9 | Current: 86 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 10
Est. Projection: 77-67 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by TBD | | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 8.4 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 80-71
80% chance of victory | | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | Win by 6.5
| | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | Est. Projection: 89-78
71% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | Win by 9.8
Est. Projection: 80-71 | |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 106.51 | -108.46 | 214.98 | | Brady Morningstar | 36.38 | -34.77 | 71.14 | | Sherron Collins | 39.51 | -27.03 | 66.54 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 40.87 | -16.30 | 57.17 | | Marcus Morris | 23.13 | -26.28 | 49.40 | | Mario Little | 23.06 | -15.04 | 38.10 | | Tyrel Reed | 26.98 | -8.48 | 35.46 | | Markieff Morris | 7.36 | -21.64 | 29.00 | | Travis Releford* | 10.22 | -9.67 | 19.89 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 1.57 | -4.05 | 5.62 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.64 | -1.18 | 2.82 | | Chase Buford* | -0.95 | -0.34 | -0.61 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.53 | 0.18 | -0.71 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -1.27 | 0.59 | -1.87 | | Brennan Bechard* | -2.06 | 0.75 | -2.81 | | Conner Teahan* | -5.18 | -1.23 | -3.95 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 4.45 | -4.53 | 8.98 | | Mario Little | 2.87 | -1.87 | 4.73 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 2.37 | -1.70 | 4.07 | | Travis Releford* | 1.88 | -1.78 | 3.66 | | Marcus Morris | 1.58 | -1.79 | 3.37 | | Brady Morningstar | 1.49 | -1.42 | 2.91 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.93 | -0.77 | 2.70 | | Markieff Morris | 0.63 | -1.85 | 2.48 | | Sherron Collins | 1.40 | -0.96 | 2.36 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.69 | -0.53 | 2.22 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 0.56 | -1.45 | 2.02 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -1.47 | 0.68 | -2.15 | | Chase Buford* | -3.62 | -1.30 | -2.32 | | Conner Teahan* | -3.72 | -0.88 | -2.84 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -5.78 | 1.91 | -7.69 | | Brennan Bechard* | -6.22 | 2.27 | -8.49 | * Rating not based on enough data. | North Dakota State
Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Brett Winkelman | 70.37 | -33.53 | 103.89 | | Ben Woodside | 67.16 | 1.74 | 65.43 | | Michael Tveidt | 58.50 | 20.76 | 37.73 | | Mike Nelson | 43.09 | 11.51 | 31.58 | | Lucas Moormann | 22.12 | -3.39 | 25.50 | | Sam Sussenguth* | 3.92 | -11.14 | 15.06 | | DeJuan Flowers | 10.12 | -0.38 | 10.50 | | Josh Vaughan | 3.11 | 0.60 | 2.51 | | Freddy Coleman* | -17.62 | -19.87 | 2.26 | | Lorenzo Riley* | -2.00 | -3.89 | 1.89 | | Austin Pennick* | -3.02 | -0.46 | -2.56 | | Eric Carlson | 0.76 | 7.37 | -6.61 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Sam Sussenguth* | 1.10 | -3.14 | 4.24 | | Brett Winkelman | 2.80 | -1.33 | 4.13 | | Ben Woodside | 2.55 | 0.07 | 2.49 | | Michael Tveidt | 2.87 | 1.02 | 1.85 | | Lorenzo Riley* | -1.85 | -3.60 | 1.75 | | Lucas Moormann | 1.41 | -0.22 | 1.63 | | Mike Nelson | 1.79 | 0.48 | 1.31 | | DeJuan Flowers | 0.89 | -0.03 | 0.92 | | Freddy Coleman* | -2.56 | -2.89 | 0.33 | | Josh Vaughan | 0.26 | 0.05 | 0.21 | | Eric Carlson | 0.09 | 0.91 | -0.82 | | Austin Pennick* | -1.50 | -0.23 | -1.27 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | NDSU | | Expected Score | 89.1 | 77.8 | | Win | 71.0% | 29.0% | | Win by 3 or less | 5.6% | 4.7% | | Win by 10 or more | 51.9% | 14.3% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 3.6% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Team 1 is KU's opponent, while Team 2 represents that team's opponents. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | Team 1 | Team 2 | Advantage | | | eFG% | 55.02% | 49.59% | 200.8 | | | TO Rate | 16.33% | 19.70% | 80.7 | | | OREB% | 33.81% | 27.77% | 70.1 | | | FTA/FGA | 27.91% | 20.96% | 16.1 | FT Pct | | | | | 123.9 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: This is a very balanced and strong profile. The Bison are getting most of their advantage from shooting better than their opponents. It's more a product of their own strong shooting than a strong defense there. Decent advantages in turnovers and rebounds supplement a nice bump from free throw attempts. NDSU would be blowing people out even more if their opponents weren't shooting such a high percent from the line (71.5% - #299 lowest in country). Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: None.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 79 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | North Dakota St. | 64 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 32 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 31 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | Marcus Morris | 19 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Mario Little | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 36 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 22 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 28 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 22 | 39 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 20 | 79 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | North Dakota St. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Ben Woodside | 38 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | | Brett Winkelman | 36 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | DeJuan Flowers | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Eric Carlson | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Freddy Coleman | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Josh Vaughan | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Lucas Moormann | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Michael Tveidt | 29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Mike Nelson | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 15 | 37 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 22 | 64 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 2 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 79-64 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 71 | | PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Woodside, Winkelman | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Winkelman | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Little Opp - Winkelman | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Little, Markieff Morris Opp - None | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Collins Opp - Nelson, Moormann | A struggling Collins would normally haunt KU's chances, but in this case he's projected to shoot 47 eFG%, not an atrocious level. |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 79-64(all prediction models included/complete) |
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