Kansas vs Michigan State (NCAA Tournament 1st Round - Indianapolis, IN)| | Kansas | Michigan State
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 27-7 | 28-6 | | AP Rank | 14
| 8
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 8
| 16
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 10
| 9
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Missouri (#10) W 90-65
@ Oklahoma (#14) W 87-78 | vs Kansas (#8) W 85-72
vs Purdue (#18) W 62-51
| Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | | Win by 1
Est. Projection: 70-69
| Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by 0.5 | | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 1.7 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 70-69
56% chance of victory | | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | | Win by 2.0
| Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | Est. Projection: 73-71
55% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | Win by 0.4
Est. Projection: 69.4-69.0 | |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 116.93 | -128.44 | 245.37 | | Sherron Collins | 51.34 | -35.16 | 86.50 | | Brady Morningstar | 31.78 | -37.89 | 69.67 | | Marcus Morris | 27.88 | -30.00 | 57.88 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 26.58 | -21.77 | 48.35 | | Tyrel Reed | 28.54 | -15.45 | 43.99 | | Mario Little | 22.91 | -21.03 | 43.94 | | Markieff Morris | 6.34 | -26.70 | 33.03 | | Travis Releford* | 9.11 | -9.45 | 18.56 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 1.55 | -3.06 | 4.60 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.58 | -1.13 | 2.72 | | Chase Buford* | -0.95 | -0.33 | -0.62 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.48 | 0.16 | -0.64 | | Brennan Bechard* | -1.93 | 0.73 | -2.66 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -3.20 | -0.20 | -2.99 | | Conner Teahan* | -4.92 | -1.11 | -3.82 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 4.58 | -5.03 | 9.60 | | Mario Little | 2.61 | -2.39 | 5.00 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 2.26 | -1.62 | 3.87 | | Marcus Morris | 1.77 | -1.91 | 3.68 | | Travis Releford* | 1.74 | -1.80 | 3.54 | | Sherron Collins | 1.70 | -1.17 | 2.87 | | Brady Morningstar | 1.22 | -1.46 | 2.68 | | Markieff Morris | 0.51 | -2.15 | 2.66 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.67 | -0.91 | 2.58 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.18 | -0.97 | 2.14 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 0.58 | -1.14 | 1.71 | | Chase Buford* | -3.25 | -1.13 | -2.12 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -2.88 | -0.18 | -2.70 | | Conner Teahan* | -3.53 | -0.79 | -2.74 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -5.55 | 1.83 | -7.38 | | Brennan Bechard* | -5.40 | 2.03 | -7.43 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Michigan State
Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Goran Suton | 69.50 | -56.86 | 126.36 | | Raymar Morgan | 40.31 | -30.80 | 71.11 | | Kalin Lucas | 46.10 | -23.03 | 69.13 | | Delvon Roe | 26.48 | -38.94 | 65.43 | | Durrell Summers | 20.69 | -26.66 | 47.34 | | Draymond Green | 18.95 | -23.44 | 42.39 | | Marquise Gray | 15.85 | -16.28 | 32.14 | | Travis Walton | 1.88 | -24.89 | 26.77 | | Chris Allen | 17.65 | -7.06 | 24.70 | | Korie Lucious* | 4.15 | -9.07 | 13.22 | | Austin Thornton* | 4.30 | -4.57 | 8.86 | | Tom Herzog* | 3.20 | -4.41 | 7.61 | | Isaiah Dahlman* | 2.00 | -2.01 | 4.01 | | Mike Kebler* | 1.83 | -0.38 | 2.21 | | Jon Crandell* | 1.62 | 0.00 | 1.62 | | Idong Ibok* | -1.57 | -2.31 | 0.7 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Tom Herzog* | 4.54 | -6.26 | 10.80 | | Mike Kebler* | 7.77 | -1.62 | 9.39 | | Jon Crandell* | 7.68 | 0.00 | 7.68 | | Goran Suton | 4.05 | -3.31 | 7.36 | | Isaiah Dahlman* | 3.27 | -3.30 | 6.57 | | Draymond Green | 2.28 | -2.83 | 5.11 | | Delvon Roe | 1.82 | -2.67 | 4.49 | | Raymar Morgan | 2.40 | -1.83 | 4.23 | | Marquise Gray | 1.97 | -2.02 | 3.99 | | Austin Thornton* | 1.90 | -2.02 | 3.93 | | Durrell Summers | 1.23 | -1.58 | 2.81 | | Kalin Lucas | 1.82 | -0.91 | 2.72 | | Korie Lucious* | 0.57 | -1.24 | 1.80 | | Chris Allen | 1.14 | -0.46 | 1.60 | | Travis Walton | 0.08 | -1.12 | 1.20 | | Idong Ibok* | -0.44 | -0.65 | 0.21 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Michigan St. | | Expected Score | 72.8 | 70.5 | | Win | 54.6% | 45.4% | | Win by 3 or less | 5.7% | 5.5% | | Win by 10 or more | 34.6% | 27.2% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 3.4% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Team 1 is KU's opponent, while Team 2 represents that team's opponents. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | Team 1 | Team 2 | Advantage | | | eFG% | 50.05% | 47.30% | 101.6 | | | TO Rate | 20.83% | 20.61% | -5.1 | | | OREB% | 41.07% | 26.12% | 177.7 | | | FT Rate | 29.15% | 24.64% | -6.2 | FT Pct | | | | | 116.2 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: Michigan State absolutely punishes opponents on the boards, so much that it is approaching twice the margin of advantage of their eFG% differential. It's a good thing for other teams that MSU doesn't win the turnover game. The rebounds probably help the tremendous FT attempt advantage for the Spartans as well. The huge advantages in those two categories would probably suggest that MSU's toughness is unmatched. Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: None.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 67 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Michigan St. | 63 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 32 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 31 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | Marcus Morris | 20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Mario Little | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 37 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 28 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 16 | 32 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 23 | 67 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 13 | 17 | 6 | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Michigan St. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Chris Allen | 21 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | Delvon Roe | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Draymond Green | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Durrell Summers | 23 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Goran Suton | 27 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Kalin Lucas | 34 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Korie Lucious | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Marquise Gray | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Raymar Morgan | 25 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Walton | 30 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 15 | 36 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 26 | 63 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 3 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 67-63 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 69 | | PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Lucas, Allen | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Roe | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Roe | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Morningstar, Aldrich Opp - Roe, Walton | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Collins Opp - Suton, Morgan | Collins once again projected to struggle, but not to a great extent. His eFG% would be 46%. |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 67-63(all prediction models included/complete) |
|
