Kansas vs Massachusetts (Kansas City, MO)| | Kansas | Massachusetts
| Performance Indicators
| | | | Record | 7-1
(Semihome: 1-1)
| 2-6
(Non-Home: 1-4)
| | AP Rank | #25 | NR
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 10
(Teams still not well connected) | 161
(Teams still not well connected)
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 20
| 205
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Washington (#37) W 73-54 | vs Holy Cross (#280) W 73-59 | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 80 Forecast: 9 | Current: 288 Forecast: 153 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 18
Est. Projection: 89-71 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by 21.1 | | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 17.4 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 85-60
(Not listed - calculated from ratings)
(Not listed) % chance of victory
| | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court!) | Est. Projection: 88-64
95.7% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7) | Win by 20.4
Est. Projection: 87-67 | |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 27.17 | -26.90 | 54.07 | | Sherron Collins | 13.53 | -10.03 | 23.56 | | Marcus Morris | 9.09 | -10.51 | 19.61 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 7.83 | -11.12 | 18.94 | | Brady Morningstar | 8.64 | -9.81 | 18.46 | | Markieff Morris | 3.49 | -9.08 | 12.56 | | Tyrel Reed | 2.16 | -8.30 | 10.47 | | Quintrell Thomas | 2.26 | -4.36 | 6.62 | | Travis Releford* | 4.25 | -1.74 | 5.99 | | Chase Buford* | 2.37 | 0.54 | 1.83 | | Conner Teahan* | -1.47 | -2.82 | 1.35 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 0.67 | 0.94 | -0.27 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -1.14 | 0.38 | -1.51 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -1.07 | 0.89 | -1.96 | | Brennan Bechard* | -2.03 | 0.15 | -2.18 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Chase Buford* | 17.75 | 4.03 | 13.73 | | Cole Aldrich | 5.04 | -4.99 | 10.03 | | Marcus Morris | 2.26 | -2.61 | 4.87 | | Travis Releford* | 2.90 | -1.19 | 4.09 | | Quintrell Thomas | 1.21 | -2.35 | 3.56 | | Sherron Collins | 1.97 | -1.46 | 3.43 | | Brady Morningstar | 1.56 | -1.78 | 3.34 | | Markieff Morris | 0.91 | -2.38 | 3.29 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.33 | -1.89 | 3.22 | | Tyrel Reed | 0.46 | -1.78 | 2.24 | | Conner Teahan* | -1.38 | -2.64 | 1.27 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.53 | 2.15 | -0.62 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -1.91 | 1.58 | -3.49 | | Brennan Bechard* | -10.70 | 0.80 | -11.50 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -10.25 | 3.39 | -13.63 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Kent State
Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Tony Gaffney | 24.95 | -41.10 | 66.05 | | Ricky Harris | 16.91 | 4.40 | 12.51 | | Luke Bonner | 4.10 | 1.04 | 3.06 | Matt Hill* (OUT)
| -0.81 | -1.08 | 0.27 | | Lex Mongo* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Travon Wilcher* | -0.44 | -0.34 | -0.10 | | David Gibbs | -3.86 | 1.31 | -5.17 | | Gary Correia | -5.20 | 2.89 | -8.09 | | Tyrell Lynch | -5.41 | 5.86 | -11.27 | | Matt Glass | -8.76 | 8.08 | -16.84 | | Chris Lowe | -9.59 | 10.10 | -19.68 | | Anthony Gurley | -15.42 | 4.73 | -20.15 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Tony Gaffney | 3.26 | -5.37 | 8.63 | | Luke Bonner | 6.10 | 1.54 | 4.55 | | Ricky Harris | 2.40 | 0.62 | 1.77 | Matt Hill* (OUT)
| -1.16 | -1.54 | 0.39 | | Lex Mongo* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Travon Wilcher* | -2.42 | -1.86 | -0.56 | | David Gibbs | -1.36 | 0.46 | -1.82 | | Tyrell Lynch | -1.32 | 1.42 | -2.74 | | Chris Lowe | -1.40 | 1.48 | -2.88 | | Anthony Gurley | -2.33 | 0.71 | -3.04 | | Gary Correia | -2.26 | 1.26 | -3.52 | | Matt Glass | -2.92 | 2.69 | -5.62 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Player Analysis:
(largely in context of ratings above) Interesting that in this clear mismatch of overall team strength, the weaker team (UMass) has the highest rated individual offensive player (Luke Bonner) and defensive player (Tony Gaffney) in efficiency. Yet, this is expected to be a KU rout. There are just too many bad players on the Minutemen's roster. KU continues to be led in contributions by Aldrich, yet the latest MVP analysis shows that role belonging to Sherron Collins. It will be interesting to see if Collins can begin to play a bit more efficiently on offense, something KU will need if it is to ascend to where its current power ratings project, a Top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Last 7 Game Analysis Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 5,000 games. The results are what you see below. | | Kansas | Massachusetts | | Expected Score | 87.94 | 63.86 | | Win | 95.7% | 4.3% | | Win by 3 or less | 2.2% | 1.5% | | Win by 10 or more | 84.5% | 0.7% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 1.2% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | UMass | Opp | Advantage | | | eFG% | 50.00% | 49.31% | 6.7 | | | TO Rate | 24.48% | 20.40% | -23.7 | | | OREB% | 30.47% | 34.51% | -11.2 | | | FT Rate | 22.48% | 17.95% | 1.2 | FT Pct | | | | | 12.8 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: UMass has done itself the greatest disservice in the category of turnovers. It ranks in the bottom 10% of the nation in turning it over on offense and in the bottom 25% in forcing turnovers. A poor job on the glass is the other area of concern, but not quite as much as turnovers. The only source of advantage the team has had is going to the line more often than opponents, but that is mostly because they avoid sending opponents there, not so much that they do a great job of getting to the line themselves. Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 344 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com) | Kansas | Massachusetts
| | Not provided this game | Not provided this game
| Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies less than average on 3FG's, while its opponents get an extremely low percentage of points from 2FG's.
On offense, UMass relies unusually heavily on 3FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 2FG's. |
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for UMass | | UMass % own 2FGA's blocked** | | | | UMass % Poss STL by Opp** | | | | UMass TO rate | | | | UMass PTS/Poss** | | | | Kansas eFG% | | | | UMass 2pt FG%** | | | | Kansas 2pt FG%** | | | | UMass OREB | | | | Kansas FT%** | | | | Kansas 3pt FG% | | | | UMass eFG%** | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss** | | | | | Kansas TO rate | | | | Kansas OREB | | | | UMass FT Rate | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | UMass FT% | | | | UMass 3pt FG% | | | | Kansas FT Rate | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | ************************************************************* | Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted | | UMass will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Expect uptempo game |
|
Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game Projected Boxscore Too early to project boxscores from current data.
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 87-67(using "Weighted Models" - still not a projected game) |
|
