Sports and Numbers

Kansas State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.  For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.  PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency.  The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

This is abbreviated, because I just don't have enough time today, sorry ...

Looking at the ratings above, it looks like KSU has much more balance, and indeed, they have one of the highest utilizations of bench minutes in the country.  While Pullen and Clemente are the leading scorers, they are nowhere near the top of the impact or efficiency charts.  Instead, it has been the play of Jamar Samuels and Ron Anderson that has stood out most statistically.  Both players shoot just under 60 eFG% and rebound well on both sides of the court as well as maintain a healthy AST:TO ratio.  Samuels adds BLK to his arsenal as well, while Anderson's greater DREB prowess contributes to his defensive rating.  Dominique Sutton rebounds well for his height and is excellent at swiping the ball, which contributes to his defensive rating.  Pullen and Clemente aren't as high on the chart because they aren't do all that much other than scoring.  Pullen turns it over nearly as often as he dishes assists.  Neither is shooting all that well nor rebounding much.

Last 7 Game Analysis

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 4.4% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing.  If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas.  In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added.  That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late.  This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games.  The results are what you see in the table.)

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:

ANALYSIS:  If only KSU was hitting its freethrows, it would be winning handily in every single category.  Still, the Wildcats' ability to get to the charity stripe so much more often has netted them about a point per game over opponents.  The bulk of KSU's advantage comes from shutting down its opponents' eFG%, forcing TO's and getting lots of second chance opportunities.  Of those, it's the shooting disparity that reigns supreme though.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: Mario Little minutes played reflects his gradual return to the lineup.  Automatic projection did not have him playing any minutes at all.

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary