Kansas at Nebraska (Lincoln, NE)| | Kansas | Nebraska
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 15-4 (4-0) | 12-6 (2-3) | | AP Rank | NR
(28th most votes)
| NR
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 18
| 64 | Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 25
| 69
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Washington (#19) W 73-54
vs Tennessee (#37) W 92-85 | vs Missouri (#8) W 56-51
vs Kansas St. (#47) W 73-51
| RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 29 Forecast: 19 | Current: 85 Forecast: 81 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 4.0
Est. Projection: 68-64 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by 3.4 | | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 3.5 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 66-63
66% chance of victory | | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | | Win by 6.0
| AccuScore Game Forecast
(Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.) | Win by 5.0
Est. Projection: 70-65
65% chance of victory | | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | | Est. Projection: 66-64
55% chance of victory
| Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | Win by 1.9
Est. Projection: 67-65 | |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 74.16 | -57.55 | 131.71 | | Sherron Collins | 34.49 | -14.07 | 48.56 | | Brady Morningstar | 31.79 | -16.03 | 47.82 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 18.13 | -12.16 | 30.29 | | Tyrel Reed | 24.77 | -4.42 | 29.19 | | Marcus Morris | 9.85 | -17.65 | 27.50 | | Markieff Morris | 5.11 | -9.78 | 14.88 | | Mario Little | 14.01 | 1.25 | 12.76 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 3.21 | -4.93 | 8.14 | | Travis Releford* | -1.83 | -5.47 | 3.64 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 0.90 | -1.27 | 2.17 | | Chase Buford* | -0.92 | -0.33 | -0.59 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -0.50 | 0.12 | -0.61 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.86 | 0.28 | -1.14 | | Brennan Bechard* | -2.44 | 0.16 | -2.60 | | Conner Teahan* | -5.27 | -1.90 | -3.37 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 5.34 | -4.14 | 9.48 | | Mario Little | 6.45 | 0.57 | 5.87 | | Brady Morningstar | 2.28 | -1.15 | 3.43 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.37 | -1.93 | 3.30 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 1.24 | -1.91 | 3.15 | | Marcus Morris | 1.12 | -2.00 | 3.12 | | Sherron Collins | 2.12 | -0.86 | 2.99 | | Tyrel Reed | 2.45 | -0.44 | 2.89 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.42 | -0.95 | 2.37 | | Markieff Morris | 0.64 | -1.23 | 1.88 | | Travis Releford* | -0.51 | -1.52 | 1.01 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -0.83 | 0.19 | -1.02 | | Conner Teahan* | -3.34 | -1.20 | -2.14 | | Chase Buford* | -4.31 | -1.55 | -2.77 | | Brennan Bechard* | -9.45 | 0.64 | -10.09 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -9.90 | 3.27 | -13.17 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Nebraska Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Paul Velander | 28.05 | 1.02 | 27.03 | | Ade Dagunduro | 18.29 | -8.57 | 26.85 | | Sek Henry | 8.19 | -14.86 | 23.05 | | Ryan Anderson | -3.56 | -25.23 | 21.66 | | Cookie Miller | -0.50 | -14.85 | 14.35 | | Toney McCray | -8.24 | -20.15 | 11.91 | | Steve Harley | -12.06 | -23.30 | 11.24 | | Brandon Richardson | 2.24 | -7.75 | 9.98 | | Chris Balham* | 6.21 | -1.13 | 7.34 | | Alonzo Edwards* | 3.15 | 1.64 | 1.51 | | Ben Nelson* | 0.01 | 0.54 | -0.53 | | Cole Salomon* | -1.99 | -1.19 | -0.80 | | Nick Krenk* | -2.17 | 0.91 | -3.08 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Ade Dagunduro | 1.88 | -0.88 | 2.76 | | Paul Velander | 2.74 | 0.10 | 2.64 | | Ryan Anderson | -0.38 | -2.71 | 2.33 | | Sek Henry | 0.79 | -1.44 | 2.23 | | Chris Balham* | 1.84 | -0.33 | 2.18 | | Brandon Richardson | 0.47 | -1.64 | 2.11 | | Toney McCray | -1.21 | -2.97 | 1.76 | | Cookie Miller | -0.04 | -1.33 | 1.28 | | Alonzo Edwards* | 2.63 | 1.37 | 1.26 | | Steve Harley | -0.94 | -1.81 | 0.87 | | Ben Nelson* | 0.03 | 1.26 | -1.23 | | Cole Salomon* | -4.40 | -2.63 | -1.77 | | Nick Krenk* | -6.00 | 2.51 | -8.51 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Nebraska | | Expected Score | 64.2 | 66.3 | | Win | 45.1% | 54.9% | | Win by 3 or less | 6.4% | 7.0% | | Win by 10 or more | 23.6% | 31.7% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 5.0% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: Mario Little minutes to reflect gradual return to lineup after injury.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 65 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Nebraska | 59 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 31 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 31 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | Marcus Morris | 14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Mario Little | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 37 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 23 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 16 | 29 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 21 | 65 | 7 | 27 | 34 | 14 | 19 | 7 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Nebraska | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Ade Dagunduro | 27 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Brandon Richardson | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Cookie Miller | 33 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Paul Velander | 28 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | | Ryan Anderson | 27 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Sek Henry | 28 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Steve Harley | 35 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Toney McCray | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | TOTALS | 200 | 13 | 32 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 21 | 59 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 1 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 65-59 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 65 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 57-45% | Pretty solid advantage, especially in a slower tempo game. | | TO Rate (lo better) | NU 29-20% | Should be very interesting to see if NU's ability to force TO's carries over into this game. Only 3 opponents have kept their TO% below 22 this season against NU.
| | O-Reb% | KU 32-21%
| | | FT Rate | KU 48-43%
| | Four Factors Overall
| KU's solid shooting advantage and OREB% edge will overcome the expected barrage of TO's that NU will force. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Harley, Dagunduro/Henry | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Henry | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Richardson | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Markieff Morris, Aldrich Opp - McCray, Richardson | Boy, does Markieff need a good game. | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Little, Morningstar Opp - Miller, Velander | Wouldn't be surprising to see Little come back down to Earth, would it?
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Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 65-59(all prediction models included/complete) |
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NCAA Basketball 
