Kansas at Missouri (Columbia, MO)| | Kansas | Missouri
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 19-4 (8-0) | 20-4 (7-2) | | AP Rank | #21
(last week)
| NR
(28th most votes)
(last week)
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 13
| 9 | Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 14
| 16
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Washington (#16) W 73-54
vs Kansas St. (#34) W 87-71 | @ Texas (#27) W 69-65
vs California (#30) W 93-66 | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 14 Forecast: 9 | Current: 21 Forecast: 12 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | | Win by 4.0
Est. Projection: 79-75 | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | | Win by 4.4 | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | | Win by 5.2 | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | | Win 79-74
71% chance of victory | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | | Win by 19.0
| AccuScore Game Forecast
(Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.) | | Win by 4.1
Est. Projection: 81-76
63% chance of victory
| Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | | Est. Projection: 82-71
77% chance of victory | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | | Win by 6.9
Est. Projection: 80-73
|
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 73.53 | -72.49 | 146.02 | | Brady Morningstar | 35.48 | -20.49 | 55.97 | | Sherron Collins | 28.00 | -19.17 | 47.17 | | Marcus Morris | 15.93 | -23.91 | 39.84 | | Tyrel Reed | 27.37 | -11.14 | 38.51 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 14.58 | -13.86 | 28.44 | | Mario Little | 24.48 | -3.08 | 27.56 | | Markieff Morris | 12.23 | -15.08 | 27.30 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 1.81 | -4.36 | 6.17 | | Travis Releford* | -1.13 | -6.98 | 5.85 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 0.81 | -1.24 | 2.05 | | Chase Buford* | -0.93 | -0.33 | -0.60 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.76 | 0.25 | -1.01 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -1.64 | 0.30 | -1.94 | | Brennan Bechard* | -2.20 | 0.15 | -2.35 | | Conner Teahan* | -4.98 | -2.35 | -2.62 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 4.38 | -4.31 | 8.69 | | Mario Little | 5.17 | -0.65 | 5.82 | | Marcus Morris | 1.59 | -2.39 | 3.98 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.35 | -2.06 | 3.42 | | Brady Morningstar | 2.01 | -1.16 | 3.17 | | Tyrel Reed | 2.24 | -0.91 | 3.15 | | Markieff Morris | 1.40 | -1.73 | 3.13 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 0.72 | -1.74 | 2.47 | | Sherron Collins | 1.42 | -0.97 | 2.39 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 0.98 | -0.93 | 1.90 | | Travis Releford* | -0.30 | -1.83 | 1.53 | | Conner Teahan* | -3.34 | -1.58 | -1.76 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -2.48 | 0.45 | -2.93 | | Chase Buford* | -4.76 | -1.70 | -3.06 | | Brennan Bechard* | -9.36 | 0.62 | -9.98 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -9.71 | 3.21 | -12.92 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Missouri Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | DeMarre Carroll | 77.79 | -48.58 | 126.37 | | Leo Lyons | 37.13 | -28.79 | 65.93 | | Matt Lawrence | 48.11 | -11.50 | 59.61 | | J.T. Tiller | 23.81 | -19.83 | 43.64 | | Zaire Taylor | 31.47 | -10.60 | 42.07 | | Keith Ramsey | 21.89 | -19.50 | 41.39 | | Marcus Denmon | 21.72 | -12.25 | 33.96 | | Laurence Bowers* | 6.99 | -17.17 | 24.17 | | Kim English | 21.10 | -0.65 | 21.76 | | Justin Safford | 7.53 | -8.86 | 16.39 | | Jarrett Sutton* | 5.33 | -0.93 | 6.26 | | Steve Moore* | -1.91 | -3.23 | 1.32 | | Miguel Paul | 0.47 | -0.29 | 0.75 | | Michael Anderson Jr.* | -4.13 | -3.20 | -0.94 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Jarrett Sutton* | 8.19 | -1.43 | 9.62 | | DeMarre Carroll | 4.69 | -2.93 | 7.62 | | Laurence Bowers* | 1.79 | -4.40 | 6.19 | | Leo Lyons | 2.77 | -2.14 | 4.91 | | Matt Lawrence | 3.96 | -0.95 | 4.90 | | Keith Ramsey | 2.43 | -2.17 | 4.60 | | Marcus Denmon | 2.06 | -1.16 | 3.22 | | J.T. Tiller | 1.63 | -1.36 | 2.99 | | Zaire Taylor | 2.00 | -0.67 | 2.68 | | Justin Safford | 1.20 | -1.41 | 2.60 | | Kim English | 2.23 | -0.07 | 2.30 | | Steve Moore* | -0.99 | -1.68 | 0.69 | | Miguel Paul | 0.06 | -0.03 | 0.09 | | Michael Anderson Jr.* | -1.73 | -1.33 | -0.39 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Missouri | | Expected Score | 70.8 | 82.0 | | Win | 23.4% | 76.6% | | Win by 3 or less | 5.5% | 6.7% | | Win by 10 or more | 8.5% | 52.7% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 4.1% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Team 1 is KU's opponent, while Team 2 represents that team's opponents. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | Team 1 | Team 2 | Advantage | | | eFG% | 54.43% | 45.96% | 243.3 | | | TO Rate | 17.15% | 26.42% | 167.6 | | | OREB% | 36.44% | 33.49% | 26.8 | | | FT Rate | 23.92% | 26.37% | -5.2 | FT Pct | | | | | 13.2 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: It's pretty simple, really. If you have a huge advantage in the top two of the four factors, it almost doesn't matter what happens in the other two factors. MU shoots better, largely a result of their ability to force turnovers and score easy buckets. Since they hold their own on the boards and the FT line, it has translated to a great season so far. Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 344 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com) | Kansas | Missouri | Offense #24 - Defense #18 - Tempo #108
Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#16 in own and opp eFG%)
Particularly good at controlling 2FG% (#27 own, #12 opp)
Strong offensive rebounding (#40)
Rank #37 in 3FG%
Great job on defense of BLK (#25)
Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
Tall: C
Short: SF Other Factors: Rank #36 in Effective Height
Team is #336 in experience
Not deep (#265 in bench minutes)
Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - PG,C ... Lo - SG, SF, PF
Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 1)
Sherron Collins - #118 AST rate
Brady Morningstar - #110 eFG%, #172 PF/40min (low)
Cole Aldrich - #31 eFG%, #90 OREB%, #20 DREB%, #33 BLK%
Marcus Morris - #24 OREB%, #160 STL%
Markieff Morris - #139 OREB%
| Offense #6 - Defense #22 - Tempo #15
Strong eFG% (#13), particularly 2FG% (#18)
Massive edge in TO's on both sides (#12 limit own, #11 force opp)
Limit opp 3FG% (#24)
Very poor FT% (#257)
Avoid getting own shots blocked (#13)
One of nation's best at stealing (#3)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#20) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
Tall: PF, SF
Short: None Other Factors: Extremely deep (#9 in bench minutes)
Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - C, PF ... Lo - SG, PG
Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 1)
Leo Lyons - #1 in PF drawn/40 min
DeMarre Carroll - #92 eFG%, #145 TO rate (low), #107 STL%, #100 PF drawn/40 min
J.T. Tiller - #28 STL%
Matt Lawrence - #2 TO rate (low)
| Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies somewhat less on 3FG's, while its opponents rely heavily on FT's and very little on 2FG's.
On offense, MU relies somewhat more on 2FG's and very little on FT's, while its opponents rely unusually little on 3FG's. |
Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: Mario Little minutes played.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 73 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Missouri | 75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 33 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 31 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | Marcus Morris | 12 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Mario Little | 18 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 37 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 29 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 19 | 35 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 24 | 73 | 8 | 24 | 32 | 15 | 21 | 7 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Missouri | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | DeMarre Carroll | 35 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | J.T. Tiller | 30 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | Justin Safford | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Keith Ramsey | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Kim English | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Leo Lyons | 29 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Marcus Denmon | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Matt Lawrence | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | | Miguel Paul | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Zaire Taylor | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 18 | 38 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 27 | 75 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 3 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | MU 75-73 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 74 | | PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Carroll/Lyons | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Carroll | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Lawrence | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Markieff Morris, Marcus Morris Opp - Paul, Lawrence | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Little, Reed Opp - Carroll, Taylor | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionMissouri wins 75-73(all prediction models included/complete) |
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | With all of the Four Factors projected in favor of Kansas except for turnovers, it becomes absolutely critical for Missouri to force turnovers in order to secure the victory. | MU to force at least a 24% TO rate | | | | KU's statistical horse is Cole Aldrich. MU has no one to match up with him, but if the game is too fast for Aldrich to keep up or if he gets in foul trouble, KU will have a tougher road. | Aldrich to play at least 30 minutes | | |
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