Kansas at Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)| | Kansas | Michigan State
| Performance Indicators
| | | | Record | 11-3 | 12-2 | | AP Rank | NR
(37th most votes)
| 8
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 19 | 27 | Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 45
| 10
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Washington (#23) W 73-54
vs Tennessee (#28) W 92-85 | @ Texas (#22) W 67-63
vs Oklahoma State (#42) W 94-79 | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 53 Forecast: 18 | Current: 7 Forecast: 10 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | | Win by 6
Est. Projection: 76-70 | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) |
| Win by 4.7 | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | | Win by 2.9
| Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | | Win 75-72
62% chance of victory | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | Tie
| Tie
| AccuScore Game Forecast
(Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.) | | Win by 4.9
Est. Projection: 78-73
57% chance of victory | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | | Est. Projection: 80-75
57% chance of victory
| Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | | Win by 4.6
Est. Projection: 76-72 |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 51.54 | -40.93 | 92.48 | | Brady Morningstar | 23.29 | -6.55 | 29.84 | | Marcus Morris | 9.99 | -16.31 | 26.30 | | Sherron Collins | 12.53 | -7.83 | 20.35 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 9.68 | -10.43 | 20.10 | | Markieff Morris | 6.74 | -12.90 | 19.64 | | Tyrel Reed | 13.31 | -5.55 | 18.86 | | Travis Releford* | 7.32 | -5.97 | 13.29 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 2.99 | -6.34 | 9.33 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.75 | -0.39 | 2.14 | | Chase Buford* | 1.13 | 0.19 | 0.94 | | Tyrone Appleton* | 0.43 | 0.18 | 0.25 | | Mario Little* | -0.68 | -0.85 | 0.17 | | Conner Teahan* | -4.38 | -3.45 | -0.94 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.99 | 0.33 | -1.31 | | Brennan Bechard* | -2.73 | 0.20 | -2.93 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 5.26 | -4.17 | 9.43 | | Travis Releford* | 2.73 | -2.22 | 4.95 | | Chase Buford* | 5.54 | 0.93 | 4.61 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 1.25 | -2.66 | 3.92 | | Marcus Morris | 1.44 | -2.34 | 3.78 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 2.91 | -0.66 | 3.57 | | Markieff Morris | 1.07 | -2.04 | 3.11 | | Brady Morningstar | 2.35 | -0.66 | 3.01 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.70 | -0.71 | 2.42 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.01 | -1.09 | 2.10 | | Sherron Collins | 1.04 | -0.65 | 1.69 | | Tyrone Appleton* | 0.70 | 0.29 | 0.41 | | Mario Little* | -1.33 | -1.66 | 0.33 | | Conner Teahan* | -2.75 | -2.16 | -0.59 | | Brennan Bechard* | -10.83 | 0.79 | -11.62 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -10.08 | 3.33 | -13.41 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Michigan State Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Raymar Morgan | 29.31 | -17.53 | 46.83 | | Goran Suton | 21.56 | -10.07 | 31.63 | | Kalin Lucas | 12.05 | -10.40 | 22.45 | | Durrell Summers | 6.07 | -14.04 | 20.10 | | Delvon Roe | 2.75 | -16.92 | 19.67 | | Draymond Green* | 5.52 | -13.74 | 19.26 | | Marquise Gray | 6.74 | -10.43 | 17.18 | | Chris Allen | 7.57 | -5.36 | 12.92 | | Austin Thornton* | 2.59 | -5.10 | 7.70 | | Tom Herzog* | 3.01 | -3.32 | 6.33 | | Isaiah Dahlman* | 1.63 | -1.14 | 2.77 | | Korie Lucious* | -1.44 | -3.18 | 1.74 | | Mike Kebler* | 1.34 | 0.00 | 1.34 | | Idong Ibok* | 0.59 | -0.61 | 1.20 | | Jon Crandell* | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.75 | | Travis Walton | -9.17 | -3.89 | -5.28 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Tom Herzog* | 7.26 | -8.01 | 15.27 | | Mike Kebler* | 11.02 | 0.00 | 11.02 | | Jon Crandell* | 7.68 | 0.00 | 7.68 | | Goran Suton | 4.63 | -2.16 | 6.79 | | Draymond Green* | 1.84 | -4.58 | 6.42 | | Isaiah Dahlman* | 3.33 | -2.34 | 5.67 | | Raymar Morgan | 3.19 | -1.91 | 5.09 | | Austin Thornton* | 1.64 | -3.22 | 4.85 | | Marquise Gray | 1.46 | -2.26 | 3.72 | | Delvon Roe | 0.48 | -2.98 | 3.46 | | Durrell Summers | 0.86 | -2.00 | 2.86 | | Kalin Lucas | 1.16 | -1.00 | 2.15 | | Chris Allen | 1.12 | -0.79 | 1.91 | | Korie Lucious* | -0.52 | -1.15 | 0.63 | | Idong Ibok* | 0.28 | -0.29 | 0.57 | | Travis Walton | -0.98 | -0.42 | -0.56 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Player Analysis:
(largely in context of ratings above) Will add, time permitting. Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Michigan St. | | Expected Score | 75.0 | 79.7 | | Win | 43.2% | 56.8% | | Win by 3 or less | 5.0% | 5.1% | | Win by 10 or more | 27.5% | 40.2% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 3.5% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | Michigan State
| Opp | Advantage | | | eFG% | 52.85% | 47.54% | 85.9 | | | TO Rate | 20.18% | 20.60% | 4.2 | | | OREB% | 41.33% | 28.35% | 68.7 | | | FT Rate | 26.15% | 22.19% | -16.9 | FT Pct | | | | | 56.9 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: Looks like a solid team that makes more shots than its opponents, battles better for the misses on the boards and does a great job at getting the all-important efficient outcome of free throw attempts. If only they made a higher percentage when they're there, they would be even stronger. Turnovers have been a draw though. Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 344 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com) | Kansas | Michigan State
| Offense #23 - Defense #38 - Tempo #149
Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#48 eFG%, #38 opp eFG%)
Particularly good at controlling 2FG% (#45 own, #17 opp)
Great offensive rebounding (#20)
Money from the FT line (#42 in FT%)
Great job on defense of BLK (#25)
Allow opp high % of FG's assisted (#262) but also have a high % themselves (#22)
Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
Tall: C
Short: None Other Factors: Team is #333 in experience
Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - PG ... Lo - SG, SF
Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 5)
Sherron Collins - #151 AST rate
Brady Morningstar - #67 eFG%
Cole Aldrich - #59 eFG%, #62 OREB%, #41 DREB%, #24 BLK%
Marcus Morris - #58 OREB%
| Offense #15 - Defense #59 - Tempo #120
Really control the boards (#14 OREB%, #26 opp OREB%)
Super 3FG% (#12) but take very few (#314 in % of FG's taken from 3FG)
Struggle at making FT (#249 FT%)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#16) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
Tall: PF
Short: None Other Factors: Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - None ... Lo - SG
Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 5)
Kalin Lucas - #35 AST Rate, #52 TO Rate (lo)
Raymar Morgan - #40 eFG%, #186 FT Rate
Delvon Roe - #61 OREB%, #165 DREB%, #87 BLK%
| Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies somewhat less on 3FG's, while its opponents get a higher percentage of points from 3FG'sat the expense of 2FG's.
On offense, MSU relies much more on 3FG's than 2FG's, while its opponents rely unusually heavily on 3FG's. |
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Michigan State | | Kansas FT%** | | | | Michigan State % own 2FGA's blocked** | | | | | Kansas 3pt FG% | | | | Kansas TO rate | | | | Michigan State 2pt FG% | | | | Michigan State FT% | | | Kansas eFG%** | | | | | Kansas 2pt FG% | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Michigan State eFG% | | | | Michigan State % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Kansas OREB | | | | Kansas FT Rate | | | | Michigan State PTS/Poss | | | | Michigan State FT Rate | | | | Michigan State TO rate | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | | Michigan State OREB** | | | | Michigan State 3pt FG%** | ************************************************************* | Michigan State will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Michigan State will have above avg % of FG's assisted | | Expect average-paced game |
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Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: Mario Little minutes played reflects his gradual return to the lineup. Automatic projection did not have him playing any minutes at all.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Michigan St. | 76 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 31 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 30 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | Marcus Morris | 13 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Mario Little | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | | Quintrell Thomas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Sherron Collins | 37 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 24 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 30 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 18 | 35 | 7 | 18 | 18 | 25 | 75 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Michigan St. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Chris Allen | 15 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Delvon Roe | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Draymond Green | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | | Durrell Summers | 24 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Goran Suton | 25 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Kalin Lucas | 36 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Korie Lucious | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Marquise Gray | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Raymar Morgan | 32 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Travis Walton | 33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 18 | 42 | 7 | 17 | 19 | 28 | 76 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 4 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | MSU 76-75 | Projected tie from earlier is now a MSU win based on updates to prediction models. | Tempo (# poss)
| 69 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 54-48% | | | TO Rate (lo better) | MSU 22-19% |
| | O-Reb% | MSU 41-33%
| | | FT Rate | KU 34-32%
| | Four Factors Overall
| KU should shoot better from the field and the line, but MSU projected to the other things well enough to even things up.
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| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Lucas, Morgan | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Suton | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Gray | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Marcus Morris, Reed Opp - Gray, Roe | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Markieff Morris, Taylor Opp - Morgan, Allen | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionMichigan State wins 76-75
(all prediction models included/complete) |
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