Kansas at Kansas State (Manhattan, KS)| | Kansas | Kansas State
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 19-5 (8-1) | 17-7 (6-4) | | AP Rank | 16
| NR
(33rd most votes)
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 13
| 37
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 14
| 49
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Washington (#16) W 73-54
vs Tennessee (#36) W 92-85 | vs Missouri (#8) W 88-72
@ Texas (#24) W 85-81 OT | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 15 Forecast: 11 | Current: 63 Forecast: 70 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 1.0
Est. Projection: 72-71 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | | Win by 0.5 | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | | Win by 0.1 | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 70-69
52% chance of victory | | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | | Win by 1.6 | AccuScore Game Forecast
(Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.) | Win by 4.1
Est. Projection: 75-71
65% chance of victory | | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | Est. Projection: 69-68
53% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | Win by 0.8
Est. Projection: 71-70 | |
Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Kansas St. | | Expected Score | 68.9 | 67.9 | | Win | 52.5% | 47.5% | | Win by 3 or less | 6.9% | 6.3% | | Win by 10 or more | 31.1% | 27.3% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 4.6% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for K-State | | Kansas FT Rate | | | | Kansas FT%** | | | | K-State 2pt FG%** | | | | Kansas 3pt FG% | | | | K-State eFG%** | | | | Kansas OREB** | | | | | Kansas eFG% | | | | K-State PTS/Poss | | | | K-State 3pt FG% | | | | Kansas 2pt FG% | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | K-State % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | K-State FT% | | | | K-State OREB | | | | K-State % Poss STL by Opp | | | | K-State TO rate | | | | | K-State FT Rate | | | | Kansas TO rate** | ************************************************************* | Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted | | Expect uptempo game |
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Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: Mario Little playing time.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 66 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas St. | 63 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 29 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | Marcus Morris | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Mario Little | 22 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Markieff Morris | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 34 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 26 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 15 | 30 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 28 | 66 | 7 | 25 | 32 | 13 | 20 | 7 | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas St. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Chris Merriewether | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Darren Kent | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | | Denis Clemente | 30 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Dominique Sutton | 24 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Fred Brown | 22 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Jacob Pullen | 32 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | | Jamar Samuels | 21 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Luis Colon | 21 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Ron Anderson | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 14 | 36 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 26 | 63 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 2 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 66-63 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 69 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 51-43% | | | TO Rate (lo better) | KSU 29-23% | Wow, another frustrating game for KU fans, filled with turnovers galore. | | O-Reb% | KSU 32-29%
| Battle of two goliaths on the offensive glass should go to K-State.
| | FT Rate | KU 64-48%
| Surprising, and this often doesn't materialize for KU. Watch closely here.
| Four Factors Overall
| Though K-State should have a slight edge in rebounding and get plenty of points off turnovers, KU is expected to shoot better and make better use of the FT line enough to come out with a close victory.
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| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Clemente, Pullen | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Kent | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Kent | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Markieff Morris, Aldrich Opp - Colon, Kent | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Little, Reed Opp - Clemente, Anderson | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 66-63(all prediction models included/complete) |
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