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| Preview: Kansas at Colorado |
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| Jan 17, 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kansas at Colorado (Boulder, CO)
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)
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| Kansas | Colorado | |
| Expected Score | 77.0 | 64.4 |
| Win | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| Win by 3 or less | 4.8% | 4.6% |
| Win by 10 or more | 54.0% | 15.0% |
Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 2.9% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games.
(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.)
Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Advantage | ||
| eFG% | 53.66% | 50.06% | 56.2 | |
| TO Rate | 21.05% | 21.45% | 4.1 | |
| OREB% | 22.58% | 32.74% | -48.9 | |
| FT Rate | 30.08% | 21.14% | 21.1 | FT Pct |
| 26.9 | FT Attempts |
ANALYSIS: This is an extremely weak rebounding team, enough to offset its modest advantage in field goal shooting. They do a good job at the FT line though, but keep in mind that CU's schedule has been ridiculously weak. None of these numbers are adjusted for strength of opposition.
Game Projections
(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)
Manual adjustments: Mario Little minutes played reflects his gradual return to the lineup. Automatic projection had him playing only 7 minutes.
Projected Boxscore
| Kansas | 79 | ||||||||||||||
| Colorado | 62 | ||||||||||||||
| Kansas | |||||||||||||||
| PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK |
| Brady Morningstar | 29 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Aldrich | 29 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Marcus Morris | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mario Little | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Markieff Morris | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Quintrell Thomas | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sherron Collins | 35 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Travis Releford | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Reed | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyshawn Taylor | 28 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| TOTALS | 200 | 21 | 34 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 27 | 79 | 9 | 26 | 35 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| Colorado | |||||||||||||||
| PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK |
| Austin Dufault | 38 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Crawford | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Higgins | 39 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Dwight Thorne II | 37 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jermyl Jackson-Wilson | 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Levi Knutson | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Tomlinson | 38 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Trey Eckloff | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTALS | 200 | 13 | 31 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 29 | 62 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 1 |
Projection Summary
Projection | Comments | |
OVERALL RESULTS | ||
| Final Score | KU 79-62 | |
| Tempo (# poss) | 66 | |
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES | ||
| eFG% | KU 61-45% | If this holds, it will be an easy road game to watch for KU fans, for a change. |
| TO Rate (lo better) | KU 23-21% | |
| O-Reb% | KU 39-24% | |
| FT Rate (FTA/FGA) | CU 63-55% | Another slow game with lots of fouls, probably. |
| Four Factors Overall | Easy shots and second-chance opportunities for KU will power their first road victory. | |
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | ||
| Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Higgins, Thorne II | |
| Highest PSAN-Comp (game impact) | KU - Aldrich Opp - Higgins | |
| Highest PSAN70-Comp (efficiency) | KU - Aldrich Opp - Higgins | |
| Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris Opp - Knutson, Tomlinson | |
| Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Collins Opp - Crawford, Higgins | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 79-62(all prediction models included/complete) |
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