Kansas at Baylor (Waco, TX)| | Kansas | Baylor
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 17-4 (6-0) | 15-6 (3-4) | | AP Rank | 21
| NR
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 19 | 36
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 20
| 39
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Washington (#14) W 73-54
vs Kansas St. (#37) W 87-71 | vs Arizona St. (#15) W 87-78
@ Washington St. (#50) W 58-52
| RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 18 Forecast: 13 | Current: 43 Forecast: 31 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | | Win by 1.5
Est. Projection: 78-77
| Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | | Win by 0.6 | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | | Win by 0.9 | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | | Win 77-76
51% chance of victory | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | Win by 8.3
| | AccuScore Game Forecast
(Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.) | Win by 3.7
Est. Projection: 80-77
61% chance of victory | | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | Win by 0.5
Est. Projection: 81.3-80.8
52% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | Win by 0.3
Est. Projection: 78.4-78.1 | |
Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Baylor | | Expected Score | 81.3 | 80.8 | | Win | 52.1% | 47.9% | | Win by 3 or less | 8.1% | 7.7% | | Win by 10 or more | 27.5% | 25.2% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 5.3% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Team 1 is KU's opponent, while Team 2 represents that team's opponents. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | Team 1 | Team 2 | Advantage | | | eFG% | 55.05% | 47.28% | 193.3 | | | TO Rate | 19.05% | 22.13% | 49.1 | | | OREB% | 34.60% | 34.47% | 1.1 | | | FT Rate | 28.62% | 24.04% | 0.3 | FT Pct | | | | | 53.7 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: The only aspect of the game that Baylor hasn't been clearly winning is rebounding. Although their FT percentage is a draw with opponents, the fact that they attempt so many more still gives the FT line to the Bears as an edge. Their shooting advantage is the single biggest factor, and it's quite substantial. This is a team that you don't want to have any extra looks at the basket. Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 344 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com) | Kansas | Baylor
| Offense #18 - Defense #28 - Tempo #132
Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#19 eFG%, #17 opp eFG%)
Particularly good at controlling 2FG% (#24 own, #16 opp)
Great offensive rebounding (#29)
Excellent 3FG% (#47)
Great job on defense of BLK (#35)
Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
Tall: C
Short: None Other Factors: Effective Height is #35
Team is #333 in experience
Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - PG ... Lo - SG, SF
Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 25)
Sherron Collins - #100 AST rate
Brady Morningstar - #169 eFG%
Cole Aldrich - #23 eFG%, #97 OREB%, #24 DREB%, #29 BLK%
Marcus Morris - #55 OREB%, #143 STL%
| Offense #8 - Defense #104 - Tempo #78
Strong shooting (#17 eFG%, #25 on 2FG%, #36 on 3FG%)
Excellent utilization of FT line (#48 in FTA/FGA)
Avoid having shots blocked (#50) or ball stolen (#20)
Very low % of FG's assisted (#325) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
Tall: C
Short: SF, SG Other Factors: Effective Height is #40
Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - SF ... Lo - C, PF
Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 25)
Curtis Jerrells - #130 FT Rate, #102 AST Rate
Kevin Rogers - #112 OREB%
Henry Dugat - #110 STL%
Tweety Carter - #154 TO Rate (lo)
LaceDarius Dunn - #53 eFG%
Quincy Acy - #98 BLK%
| Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies somewhat less on 3FG's, while its opponents rely heavily on FT's and less on 2FG's.
On offense, BU relies heavily on 3FG's, while its opponents rely somewhat more on 2FG's than 3FG's. |
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Baylor | | Kansas OREB** | | | | Kansas FT% | | | | Kansas 3pt FG%** | | | | Kansas eFG%** | | | | Kansas 2pt FG%** | | | | | Kansas FT Rate | | | Kansas PTS/Poss** | | | | | Baylor OREB | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Baylor % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | Baylor 2pt FG% | | | | Baylor eFG% | | | | Baylor PTS/Poss | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | Baylor 3pt FG% | | | | Kansas TO rate | | | | | Baylor % Poss STL by Opp** | | | Baylor FT% | | | | | Baylor TO rate | | | | Baylor FT Rate** | ************************************************************* | Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Baylor will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Baylor will have below avg % of FG's assisted | | Expect uptempo game |
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Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: Mario Little minutes.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Baylor | 72 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 32 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 31 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | Marcus Morris | 12 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Mario Little | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Quintrell Thomas | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Sherron Collins | 36 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 28 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 19 | 35 | 6 | 16 | 19 | 26 | 75 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 14 | 17 | 6 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Baylor | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Curtis Jerrells | 38 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | | Fred Ellis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Henry Dugat | 34 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | Kevin Rogers | 36 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | LaceDarius Dunn | 30 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Mamadou Diene | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Quincy Acy | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Tweety Carter | 36 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 16 | 34 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 28 | 72 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 75-72 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 70 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 55-50% | | | TO Rate (lo better) | BU 24-20% | KU has failed to force even 13% from opp in the last three games!
| | O-Reb% | KU 36-29%
| See comment in Keys to the Game
| | FT Rate | BU 53-51%
| | Four Factors Overall
| Turnovers shouldn't be able to overcome the shooting and rebounding edge KU is expected to enjoy.
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| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Dunn, Jerrells | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Dunn | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Acy | Acy to do his damage mostly defensively.
| | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Taylor Opp - Acy, Carter | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Little, Collins Opp - Jerrells, Dugat | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 75-72(all prediction models included/complete) |
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | Baylor can shoot lights out from behind the arc. KU has a great first-shot defense, but offensive rebounds are one of the best opportunities for a team to get an open look at the 3FG. KU must limit these chances if they want to keep BU's offensive efficiency in check. | KU to limit Baylor's OREB% to 33 or lower (NCAA average). | | | | If KU turns it over like they have of late, it won't matter how high their eFG% is. KU must get looks at the basket to keep pace with the Bears. | KU to limit own TO% to 22 or lower.
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