Sports and Numbers

Kansas at Arizona (Tucson, AZ)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.  For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.  PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency.  The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Kansas faces one of its toughest tests of the season, particularly in the form of Arizona's frontcourt duo of Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger.  In last season's loss at Allen Fieldhouse, Budinger did more than any player on the court for either team with 27 PTS, 6 REB and 2 STL on 56.5 eFG% but also 5 TO's.  Hill happened to have one of his worst games of the season that night, something Jayhawk fans should not expect to be the case this time around.  The junior, Hill, is averaging an astounding 18.5 PTS/gm and nearly 12 REB/gm.  Keep in mind that Arizona's adjusted tempo rating is #300 in the nation, so he is averaging even more if you adjust for that.  Hill is shooting just under 60 eFG%, while Budinger is shooting a red-hot 64 eFG% (unbelievably 58% from 3FG).

As good as Hill and Budinger have been, there isn't all that much balance on this Arizona team, with only Zane Johnson and Kyle Fogg contributing much else positively.  Neither of those two plays more than 18 MIN/gm.  Both are shooting a high percentage from the field, with Johnson shooting 8-of-16 from behind the arc.  He doesn't play many minutes, but Kyle Fogg is rated #1 in the country in "Individual Offensive Rating" using Dean Oliver's formula (according to KenPom.com).  Since he does not use that many of the team's possessions, it doesn't turn out to mean much in terms of Fogg's overall impact, but I thought it worthy to mention.

Somewhat unusual for a major conference team that has a winning record is that two players are rated at a significantly negative efficiency rating despite playing 12+ minutes each.  Fendi Onobun and Garland Judkins have hurt the team more than any other player statistically speaking.  Both are shooting in the neighborhood of 40 eFG%.  Since Arizona has a great offense but very mediocre defense, none of the players get a very good defensive rating.  And these two struggle so much on offense that they get none of the credit for UA's offensive prowess.

On KU's side, it continues to be a team led by Cole Aldrich in terms of production.  But the MVP continues to be Sherron Collins.  This game presents the Kansas freshmen with their first road test, and it could mean a significant departure (negatively) from their averages.

Last 7 Game Analysis

Down to the Wire?

 Margin of game was less than 1 point in 6.0% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis."  Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing.  If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas.  In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added.  That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late.  This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense.  Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other.  This analysis will reflect that.  Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency.  Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 5,000 games.  The results are what you see below.)

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:

ANALYSIS:  The only area the Wildcats have struggled is in turnovers.  Otherwise, they're shooting it well from the field and attempting many more FT's than their opponents.  They don't get to the line an unusually high amount.  It's just that they are one of the absolute best at limiting opponents from getting there.  Although the rebounding has been tight on average, Arizona has been more consistent on the offensive rebounding side than on the defensive side.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: Minutes played for Arizona's Budinger and Wise (to avoid playing over 40 minutes as dictated by system automatically increasing better players' minutes in tighter games).

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary