Colorado at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)| | Kansas | Colorado
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 16-4 (5-0) | 9-10 (1-4) | | AP Rank | NR
(28th most votes) | NR
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 16
| 179
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 22
| 196
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Washington (#19) W 73-54
vs Kansas State (#40) W 87-71 | vs Iowa St. (#117) W 55-49 | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 20 Forecast: 13 | Current: 227 Forecast: 205 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 21.5
Est. Projection: 79-57 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by 23.1 | | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 21.1 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 78-57
98% chance of victory | | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | Win by 35.4
| | AccuScore Game Forecast
(Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.) | Win by 24.6
Est. Projection: 81-57
96% chance of victory | | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | Est. Projection: 89-59
95% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | Win by 24.6
Est. Projection: 82-57 | |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 71.71 | -57.48 | 129.20 | | Sherron Collins | 38.39 | -13.54 | 51.93 | | Brady Morningstar | 36.56 | -14.31 | 50.87 | | Tyrel Reed | 27.49 | -5.55 | 33.04 | | Marcus Morris | 9.71 | -18.59 | 28.31 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 14.17 | -12.10 | 26.26 | | Markieff Morris | 8.02 | -12.96 | 20.99 | | Mario Little | 14.54 | 0.42 | 14.12 | | Travis Releford* | 0.58 | -6.88 | 7.46 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 2.17 | -4.89 | 7.05 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 0.87 | -1.27 | 2.15 | | Chase Buford* | -0.93 | -0.34 | -0.59 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -0.49 | 0.10 | -0.60 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.83 | 0.28 | -1.11 | | Brennan Bechard* | -2.38 | 0.16 | -2.54 | | Conner Teahan* | -5.25 | -1.90 | -3.36 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 4.97 | -3.98 | 8.96 | | Mario Little | 4.75 | 0.14 | 4.61 | | Brady Morningstar | 2.48 | -0.97 | 3.45 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.36 | -1.98 | 3.34 | | Marcus Morris | 1.10 | -2.10 | 3.20 | | Tyrel Reed | 2.61 | -0.53 | 3.14 | | Sherron Collins | 2.25 | -0.79 | 3.04 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 0.84 | -1.88 | 2.72 | | Markieff Morris | 1.01 | -1.63 | 2.63 | | Travis Releford* | 0.16 | -1.86 | 2.01 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.05 | -0.90 | 1.96 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -0.84 | 0.18 | -1.02 | | Conner Teahan* | -3.41 | -1.23 | -2.18 | | Chase Buford* | -4.43 | -1.60 | -2.82 | | Brennan Bechard* | -9.43 | 0.63 | -10.06 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -9.85 | 3.26 | -13.11 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Colorado Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Cory Higgins | 34.62 | -27.07 | 61.70 | | Jermyl Jackson-Wilson | -2.01 | -9.82 | 7.81 | Ryan Kelley* (OUT)
| 4.77 | -1.63 | 6.40 | | Dwight Thorne II | 15.03 | 11.33 | 3.69 | | Toby Veal* | -3.29 | -5.75 | 2.46 | | Matt Favaro* | 0.94 | 0.19 | 0.75 | | Andrew Zehnder* | 0.00 | -0.34 | 0.34 | | Javon Coney* | -3.04 | -2.82 | -0.21 | | Casey Crawford | 4.15 | 4.58 | -0.44 | | Trey Eckloff | -9.76 | -0.62 | -9.15 | | Levi Knutson | -20.95 | 4.79 | -25.74 | | Nate Tomlinson | -9.56 | 17.87 | -27.42 | | Austin Dufault | -28.25 | 15.48 | -43.73 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Matt Favaro* | 20.37 | 4.16 | 16.21 | Ryan Kelley* (OUT)
| 3.19 | -1.09 | 4.28 | | Cory Higgins | 2.14 | -1.67 | 3.81 | | Toby Veal* | -2.27 | -3.97 | 1.70 | | Jermyl Jackson-Wilson | -0.22 | -1.10 | 0.88 | | Andrew Zehnder* | 0.00 | -0.32 | 0.32 | | Dwight Thorne II | 1.07 | 0.81 | 0.26 | | Casey Crawford | 0.75 | 0.83 | -0.08 | | Javon Coney* | -1.21 | -1.13 | -0.09 | | Nate Tomlinson | -0.70 | 1.31 | -2.02 | | Trey Eckloff | -2.32 | -0.15 | -2.17 | | Austin Dufault | -2.04 | 1.12 | -3.16 | | Levi Knutson | -3.69 | 0.84 | -4.53 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Colorado | | Expected Score | 88.8 | 59.1 | | Win | 95.1% | 4.9% | | Win by 3 or less | 2.0% | 1.7% | | Win by 10 or more | 86.3% | 1.2% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 1.3% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Team 1 is KU's opponent, while Team 2 represents that team's opponents. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game: | | Team 1 | Team 2 | Advantage | | | eFG% | 52.71% | 51.13% | 30.7 | | | TO Rate | 21.62% | 22.43% | 10.1 | | | OREB% | 22.69% | 32.58% | -59.0 | | | FT Rate | 30.84% | 21.51% | 32.2 | FT Pct | | | | | 32.8 | FT Attempts | ANALYSIS: Rebounding has killed CU, but they've done a fair job of making up for it at the FT line. They're allowing too high a eFG% to have a signficant edge there. Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Colorado | | Kansas eFG%** | | | | Kansas 2pt FG%** | | | | Kansas 3pt FG%** | | | | Colorado OREB | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | Colorado PTS/Poss** | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss** | | | | Kansas OREB** | | | | Colorado % own 2FGA's blocked** | | | | | Kansas FT Rate | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Colorado TO rate | | | | Colorado eFG% | | | | Colorado 3pt FG% | | | | Colorado 2pt FG% | | | | Colorado % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Kansas FT% | | | | Kansas TO rate | | | | | Colorado FT Rate** | | | | Colorado FT% | ************************************************************* | Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Kansas plays faster tempo than Colorado |
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Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: Mario Little minutes played more than he's averaged.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 78 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Colorado | 54 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 28 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 28 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | Marcus Morris | 15 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Mario Little | 23 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Quintrell Thomas | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Sherron Collins | 33 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 26 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 21 | 34 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 21 | 78 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Colorado | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Austin Dufault | 36 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | Casey Crawford | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Cory Higgins | 42 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | | Dwight Thorne II | 36 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Jermyl Jackson-Wilson | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Levi Knutson | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Nate Tomlinson | 37 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Trey Eckloff | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 12 | 29 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 54 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 1 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 78-54 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 65 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 64-45% | Makes for a fun game to watch if you're a KU fan. | | TO Rate (lo better) | KU 26-23% |
| | O-Reb% | KU 39-15%
| | | FT Rate | CU 49-43%
| | Four Factors Overall
| KU makes most of its shots, and when it misses will grab a ton of offensive boards. That will make it a long day for the Buffs. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Higgins, Thorne II/Dufault | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Higgins | Very unusual in that Crawford actually has highest impact rating, but he doesn't play 10 minutes. | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Jackson-Wilson | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Morningstar Opp - Jackson-Wilson | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Marcus Morris, Aldrich Opp - Thorne II, Tomlinson | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 78-54(all prediction models included/complete) |
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