Sports and Numbers

Kansas Shortcuts

Main Menu

Home

NCAA Basketball

Preview: Albany at Kansas

Dec 30, 2008

Albany at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Albany
Performance Indicators
Record	8-3	8-4
AP Rank	NR	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	22	148
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	56	113
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Washington (#21) W 73-54	none against Top 100
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .)	Current: 107 Forecast: 29	Current: 94 Forecast: 84
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by TBD Est. Projection: TBD
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by TBD
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 15.2
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 74-55 97% chance of victory
TeamRankings.com (Use home rating for home team, road for road, specific home advantage for home team. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but still use specific home advantage if home team has played >3 home games.)	Win by 24.7
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court)	Est. Projection: 69-59 79.7% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (40% Vegas + 10% Pred Trckr + 10% SagPred + 10% Pom + 10% TmRnkgs.com +10% Last 7)	Win by 15.7 Est. Projection: 72-56

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)

Kansas

Impact Ratings

PLAYER	ePSAN-O	ePSAN-D	ePSAN-Comp
Cole Aldrich	34.95	-29.44	64.40
Brady Morningstar	14.94	-6.92	21.86
Sherron Collins	12.21	-9.26	21.47
Tyshawn Taylor	8.71	-12.42	21.13
Marcus Morris	9.01	-11.99	21.00
Markieff Morris	3.67	-11.95	15.62
Quintrell Thomas*	1.14	-3.61	4.74
Travis Releford*	4.65	-0.08	4.73
Tyrel Reed	-2.20	-6.11	3.91
Conner Teahan*	-0.82	-2.93	2.11
Chase Buford*	2.24	0.51	1.72
Matt Kleinmann*	0.07	-0.28	0.35
Tyrone Appleton*	-0.28	0.84	-1.13
Jordan Juenemann*	-1.06	0.35	-1.41
Brennan Bechard*	-1.90	0.14	-2.04

Efficiency Ratings

PLAYER	ePSAN70-O	ePSAN70-D	ePSAN70-Comp
Chase Buford*	17.77	4.06	13.71
Cole Aldrich	4.78	-4.03	8.80
Marcus Morris	1.63	-2.17	3.80
Markieff Morris	0.73	-2.39	3.12
Brady Morningstar	1.98	-0.92	2.90
Tyshawn Taylor	1.11	-1.58	2.69
Travis Releford*	2.50	-0.04	2.55
Quintrell Thomas*	0.56	-1.79	2.36
Sherron Collins	1.30	-0.99	2.29
Conner Teahan*	-0.54	-1.94	1.40
Tyrel Reed	-0.37	-1.03	0.66
Matt Kleinmann*	0.13	-0.51	0.65
Tyrone Appleton*	-0.51	1.51	-2.02
Brennan Bechard*	-10.65	0.80	-11.45
Jordan Juenemann*	-10.17	3.36	-13.53

* Rating not based on enough data.

Albany

Impact Ratings

PLAYER	PSAN-O	PSAN-D	PSAN-Comp
Tim Ambrose	17.45	-9.01	26.46
Anthony Raffa	7.88	-6.84	14.72
Jerel Hastings	2.90	-2.00	4.90
Billy Allen	3.49	-0.79	4.28
Will Harris	1.31	-2.35	3.66
Scotty McRae	-11.39	-11.44	0.04
Logan Aronhalt*	-0.03	0.00	-0.03
Brett Gifford	-9.98	-7.36	-2.62
Mike Johnson	-10.81	-4.98	-5.83
Jimmie Covington	-5.93	2.72	-8.65
Brian Connelly	-8.86	0.32	-9.18
Louis Barraza	-6.31	5.19	-11.50

Efficiency Ratings

PLAYER	PSAN70-O	PSAN70-D	PSAN70-Comp
Tim Ambrose	2.78	-1.43	4.21
Anthony Raffa	1.03	-0.89	1.92
Jerel Hastings	0.71	-0.49	1.19
Billy Allen	0.97	-0.22	1.19
Will Harris	0.19	-0.33	0.52
Scotty McRae	-2.59	-2.60	0.01
Brett Gifford	-1.81	-1.34	-0.48
Logan Aronhalt*	-0.61	0.00	-0.61
Mike Johnson	-1.91	-0.88	-1.03
Brian Connelly	-1.07	0.04	-1.11
Jimmie Covington	-2.00	0.92	-2.91
Louis Barraza	-2.59	2.13	-4.71

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

No time for anything extensive. Just note that there's probably only one player who has the ability to hurt Kansas based on season cumulative stats, and it's Tim Ambrose. But he hasnt' started the past two games for some reason. Perhaps it was his 0-of-8 shooting the game prior? In any event, any Albany player that steps up tonight would be doing so unexpectedly.

Last 7 Game Analysis

	Kansas	Albany
Expected Score	68.59	58.70
Win	79.7%	20.3%
Win by 3 or less	8.2%	6.2%
Win by 10 or more	48.7%	4.6%

Down to the Wire?

Margin of game was less than 1 point in 5.4% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games.

(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 5,000 games. The results are what you see below.)

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:

	Albany	Opp	Advantage
eFG%	45.01%	46.98%	-26.0
TO Rate	22.66%	21.31%	-10.4
OREB%	36.66%	27.85%	34.5
FT Rate	24.71%	24.17%	27.0	FT Pct
			-8.0	FT Attempts

ANALYSIS: Rebounding and a much better FT percentage than their opponents has kept things afloat for Albany thus far this season. Given their pitiful strength of schedule, those are not likely to hold up against the Jayhawks. Well, maybe the FT part will.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 344 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Albany
Offense #31 - Defense #31 - Tempo #172 Strong defensive eFG% (#37), particularly 2FG% defense (#13) Excellent offensive rebounding (#21) Great job on defense of BLK (#44) Allow opp high % of FG's assisted (#260) but also have a high % themselves (#41) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse) Tall: C Short: None Other Factors: Team is #332 in experience Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 23) Sherron Collins - #163 AST rate Tyshawn Taylor - #188 STL% Brady Morningstar - #143 eFG% Cole Aldrich - #155 eFG%, #62 OREB%, #24 DREB%, #47 BLK% Marcus Morris - #57 OREB% Markieff Morris - #122 DREB%	Offense #222 - Defense #90 - Tempo #195 Poor overall shooting (#283 eFG%, #287 in 3FG%) Commit lots of turnovers (#250) Excellent rebounding on both sides (#24 OREB%, #34 DREB%) Strong 3FG% defense (#20) Get a lot of 2FGA's blocked by opp (#250) Remarkably low % of FG attempts are 3FG's (#312) but opposite is true for opponents (#269 lowest %) Very low % of FG's assisted (#261) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse) Tall: SF Short: None Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 23) Tim Ambrose - #57 AST rate Mike Johnson - #121 AST rate Brett Gifford - #166 DREB%, #148 BLK%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies less than average on 3FG's, while its opponents get an extremely low percentage of points from 2FG's. On offense, UA relies much more on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents are fairly balanced.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Albany
Albany eFG%**
Albany 2pt FG%**
Albany % own 2FGA's blocked**
Albany PTS/Poss**
Kansas 2pt FG%
Albany % Poss STL by Opp
Kansas FT Rate
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
	Albany TO rate
	Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Albany 3pt FG%
	Kansas TO rate
	Kansas eFG%
	Kansas OREB
	Albany FT Rate
	Kansas FT%
	Albany OREB
	Albany FT%
		Kansas 3pt FG%**

*************************************************************

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Albany will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Expect average-paced game

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments: Minutes played for Arizona's Budinger and Wise (to avoid playing over 40 minutes as dictated by system automatically increasing better players' minutes in tighter games).

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	72
Albany	57

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brady Morningstar	29	1	2	2	3	1	1	9	1	2	3	3	1	1	0
Cole Aldrich	28	5	7	0	0	3	4	13	3	6	9	2	2	1	3
Conner Teahan	5	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Marcus Morris	21	3	6	0	0	2	3	8	2	3	5	1	1	1	1
Markieff Morris	14	2	3	0	1	2	2	6	1	4	5	2	2	1	1
Quintrell Thomas	7	1	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	0
Sherron Collins	36	4	8	2	6	2	3	16	1	2	3	5	3	2	0
Travis Releford	7	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0
Tyrel Reed	23	0	1	1	4	1	1	4	0	2	2	1	1	1	0
Tyshawn Taylor	30	3	5	1	2	2	3	11	0	2	2	5	2	2	1
TOTALS	200	20	35	6	17	14	20	72	10	24	34	19	14	9	6

Albany
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Anthony Raffa	34	2	6	2	4	3	4	13	2	2	4	2	3	1	0
Billy Allen	10	0	1	1	3	0	0	3	1	1	2	1	0	0	0
Brett Gifford	15	1	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Brian Connelly	36	3	5	0	0	2	3	8	1	2	3	1	2	1	0
Jerel Hastings	11	1	3	0	0	1	2	3	1	1	2	0	0	0	0
Jimmie Covington	8	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Mike Johnson	15	1	3	0	1	2	3	4	1	2	3	3	2	1	0
Scotty McRae	12	1	3	0	2	2	3	4	1	2	3	0	2	1	1
Tim Ambrose	28	3	8	1	2	2	3	11	2	2	4	2	3	1	0
Will Harris	31	2	6	1	4	2	2	9	1	2	3	1	3	0	0
TOTALS	200	14	38	5	16	14	21	57	12	17	29	10	17	5	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 72-57
Tempo (# poss)	67
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 56-40%	It would be a surprise of unbelievable proportions if KU did not have a substantial eFG% advantage this game.
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 26-21%	Seems like a rarity for KU these days.
O-Reb%	KU 37-33%	Albany hasn't faced many strong rebounding teams probably, so this is interesting to watch.
FT Rate	KU 27-26%
Four Factors Overall	Nothing expected to be a huge factor except for a gigantic difference in shooting potential in favor of the Jayhawks.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Raffa, Ambrose	Interesting that the projection doesn't have Ambrose leading the way here.
Highest PSAN-Comp (game impact)	KU - Aldrich Opp - Raffa
Highest PSAN70-Comp (efficiency)	KU - Aldrich Opp - Raffa
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Markieff Morris, Morningstar Opp - Johnson, Connelly
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Reed, Collins Opp - Harris, Ambrose

Kansas Shortcuts

Main Menu

Newsletter

Albany at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Kansas

Impact Ratings

Efficiency Ratings

Albany

Impact Ratings

Efficiency Ratings

Player Analysis:

Last 7 Game Analysis

Down to the Wire?

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 344 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Game Projections

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary

Projection

Comments

OVERALL RESULTS

FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)