Kansas Shortcuts
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| Preview: Albany at Kansas |
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| Dec 30, 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Albany at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.)
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| Kansas | Albany | |
| Expected Score | 68.59 | 58.70 |
| Win | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| Win by 3 or less | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Win by 10 or more | 48.7% | 4.6% |
Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 5.4% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games.
(Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 5,000 games. The results are what you see below.)
Opponent Four Factor Analysis
Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date. Here is the breakdown for KU's opponent this game:
| Albany | Opp | Advantage | ||
| eFG% | 45.01% | 46.98% | -26.0 | |
| TO Rate | 22.66% | 21.31% | -10.4 | |
| OREB% | 36.66% | 27.85% | 34.5 | |
| FT Rate | 24.71% | 24.17% | 27.0 | FT Pct |
| -8.0 | FT Attempts |
ANALYSIS: Rebounding and a much better FT percentage than their opponents has kept things afloat for Albany thus far this season. Given their pitiful strength of schedule, those are not likely to hold up against the Jayhawks. Well, maybe the FT part will.
Highlighted Efficiency Rankings | |
Kansas | Albany |
Offense #31 - Defense #31 - Tempo #172
Other Factors: Team is #332 in experience
| Offense #222 - Defense #90 - Tempo #195
Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
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Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies less than average on 3FG's, while its opponents get an extremely low percentage of points from 2FG's. | |
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)
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Game Projections
(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)
Manual adjustments: Minutes played for Arizona's Budinger and Wise (to avoid playing over 40 minutes as dictated by system automatically increasing better players' minutes in tighter games).
Projected Boxscore
| Kansas | 72 | ||||||||||||||
| Albany | 57 | ||||||||||||||
| Kansas | |||||||||||||||
| PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK |
| Brady Morningstar | 29 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Aldrich | 28 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Conner Teahan | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Morris | 21 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Markieff Morris | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Quintrell Thomas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sherron Collins | 36 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Travis Releford | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Reed | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyshawn Taylor | 30 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| TOTALS | 200 | 20 | 35 | 6 | 17 | 14 | 20 | 72 | 10 | 24 | 34 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 6 |
| Albany | |||||||||||||||
| PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK |
| Anthony Raffa | 34 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Billy Allen | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Gifford | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Connelly | 36 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jerel Hastings | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Covington | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Johnson | 15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Scotty McRae | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Tim Ambrose | 28 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 31 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTALS | 200 | 14 | 38 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 21 | 57 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 2 |
Projection Summary
Projection | Comments | |
OVERALL RESULTS | ||
| Final Score | KU 72-57 | |
| Tempo (# poss) | 67 | |
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES | ||
| eFG% | KU 56-40% | It would be a surprise of unbelievable proportions if KU did not have a substantial eFG% advantage this game. |
| TO Rate (lo better) | KU 26-21% | Seems like a rarity for KU these days. |
| O-Reb% | KU 37-33% | Albany hasn't faced many strong rebounding teams probably, so this is interesting to watch. |
| FT Rate | KU 27-26% | |
| Four Factors Overall | Nothing expected to be a huge factor except for a gigantic difference in shooting potential in favor of the Jayhawks. | |
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | ||
| Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Raffa, Ambrose | Interesting that the projection doesn't have Ambrose leading the way here. |
| Highest PSAN-Comp (game impact) | KU - Aldrich Opp - Raffa | |
| Highest PSAN70-Comp (efficiency) | KU - Aldrich Opp - Raffa | |
| Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Markieff Morris, Morningstar Opp - Johnson, Connelly | |
| Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Collins Opp - Harris, Ambrose | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 72-57(not all prediction models included) |
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