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Preview: Yale at Kansas

Dec 28, 2007

Yale at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Yale
Performance Indicators
Record	12-0	3-6
AP Rank	3	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	230
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	1	215
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Arizona (#11) W 76-72 (OT) @ Southern California (#26) W 59-55	@ Fairfield (#200) W 70-66 OT vs Sacred Heart (#216) W 82-71
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength)	6	177
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 32 Est. Projection: 87-55
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 30.2
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 29.1
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 88-51 100% chance of victory
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location. If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, other recent games used to make 10 total.)	Win by 30.5 99.99997% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)	Win by 31.6 Est. Projection: 86-55

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	16.06	13.55
Mario Chalmers	7.51	64.61
Brennan Bechard*	6.62	2.15
Cole Aldrich	6.42	17.41
Darnell Jackson	6.37	43.74
Sasha Kaun	5.74	31.02
Rodrick Stewart	4.21	22.76
Russell Robinson	4.15	35.37
Brandon Rush	3.85	24.13
Darrell Arthur	3.82	27.58
Sherron Collins	3.45	11.63
Tyrel Reed	3.34	7.15
Matt Kleinmann*	2.84	1.40
Jeremy Case*	2.51	4.32
Brad Witherspoon*	-4.25	-1.19
Chase Buford*	-15.73	-4.74

* Rating not based on enough data.

Yale

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Jordan Gibson*	9.09	6.06
Alexander Zampier	3.11	13.62
Garrett Fiddler*	2.91	4.43
Matt Kyle	2.42	9.80
Caleb Holmes	1.95	11.49
Josh Davis*	1.28	0.37
Ari Greenberg*	0.79	0.64
Michael Sands*	0.42	0.25
Travis Pinick	-0.28	-1.08
Ross Morin	-1.02	-5.48
Porter Braswell*	-1.16	-1.27
Eric Flato	-2.65	-19.03
Nick Holmes	-3.45	-20.13
Raffi Mantilla	-5.53	-3.29
Paul Nelson	-5.57	-9.55

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Skipped for this game. Just one observation ... you'll note that Mario Chalmers is KU's stealer extraordinaire (#8 in the country). But Yale brings in a player with an even higher STL rate. Zampier is #3, and Yale as a team is #27. Maybe there will be some exciting fast breaks or something to wake spectators up.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Yale
Offense #10 - Defense #2 - Tempo #99 Rank #3 in eFG%, including #2 2FG% Rank #8 in forcing TO's, including #5 in STL pct Rank #47 in limiting opp FT Rate Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#7) Dominate the BLK category (#1 limit own, #5 block opp) Very high % of FG's assisted (#31) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 23) Mario Chalmers - #24 eFG%, #195 AST rate, #8 STL rate Russell Robinson - #184 FT rate, #60 STL rate Darrell Arthur - #113 BLK rate Darnell Jackson - #62 OREB%, #185 DREB% Sasha Kaun - #19 BLK rate Brandon Rush - #114 TO rate (good)	Offense #211 - Defense #228 - Tempo #191 Give up very high eFG% (#293 overall - #251 on 3FG%, #291 on 2FG%) Poor OREB% (#308) Get blocked too often (#268) Excellent STL rate (#27) Give up very high % of FG's assisted (#250) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 23) Eric Flato - #149 STL rate Caleb Holmes - #52 eFG% Ross Morin - #145 TO rate (good) Alexander Zampier - #3 STL rate Matt Kyle - #83 BLK rate Travis Pinick - #57 STL rate
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU heavily on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, YU is fairly balanced, while its opponents rely somewhat more on 2FG's than 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Yale
Kansas eFG%**
Kansas 2pt FG%**
Yale % own 2FGA's blocked**
Yale OREB
Kansas PTS/Poss**
Yale PTS/Poss**
Yale TO rate**
Yale FT Rate**
Kansas 3pt FG%
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**
Yale 2pt FG%**
Yale % Poss STL by Opp**
Kansas OREB
	Yale eFG%
	Kansas TO rate
	Yale FT%
	Kansas FT Rate
	Yale 3pt FG%
		Kansas % Poss STL by Opp**
	Kansas FT%

*************************************************************

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Yale will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Expect average-paced game

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	89
Yale	57

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brad Witherspoon	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Rush	21	2	5	1	4	1	2	8	1	3	4	1	1	1	1
Brennan Bechard	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chase Buford	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cole Aldrich	8	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Conner Teahan	4	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darnell Jackson	20	4	6	0	0	2	3	10	3	4	7	1	2	1	1
Darrell Arthur	21	5	9	0	1	2	3	12	2	4	6	1	2	1	2
Jeremy Case	6	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
Mario Chalmers	25	3	4	2	3	2	2	14	1	3	4	4	2	3	0
Matt Kleinmann	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Rodrick Stewart	16	2	3	0	1	1	2	5	1	2	3	3	1	1	0
Russell Robinson	25	1	1	1	3	2	3	7	1	2	3	5	2	2	1
Sasha Kaun	16	3	4	0	0	2	4	8	2	2	4	0	1	1	2
Sherron Collins	19	2	3	2	4	2	2	12	0	3	3	3	2	2	0
Tyrel Reed	10	1	1	1	2	0	0	5	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	25	40	8	21	15	22	89	13	26	39	21	14	12	8

Yale
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Eric Flato	33	1	4	2	6	2	2	10	0	1	1	2	6	3	0
Caleb Holmes	27	1	3	2	3	2	3	10	0	3	3	2	2	1	0
Matt Kyle	21	3	6	0	0	1	2	7	2	2	4	1	2	0	1
Alexander Zampier	20	1	3	2	3	2	2	10	0	2	2	1	2	3	0
Ross Morin	24	3	6	0	1	2	2	8	2	4	6	1	1	0	0
Nick Holmes	26	1	3	1	4	1	1	6	1	3	4	2	3	1	0
Travis Pinick	18	1	4	0	1	1	2	3	2	2	4	1	3	2	1
Jordan Gibson	4	0	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Porter Braswell	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Garrett Fiddler	7	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ari Greenberg	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Paul Nelson	10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	12	32	7	18	12	17	57	8	20	28	10	21	10	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 89-57
Tempo (# poss)	71
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 61-45%
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 30-20%	Remember to watch for lots of STL from both sides!
O-Reb%	KU 39-24%
FT Rate	KU 25-24%
Four Factors Overall	Advantages in all four factors for KU, but the eFG% dwarfs all of them (nearly 20 pt difference as a result of shooting alone).
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Chalmers, Arthur/Collins Opp - Flato, Holmes, Zampier (co-leaders)
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Chalmers Opp - Zampier
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Chalmers Opp - Zampier
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Collins, Chalmers Opp - Zampier, Morin
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Rush, Stewart Opp - Kyle, Pinick