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Preview: Texas Tech at Kansas

Mar 3, 2008

Texas Tech at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Texas Tech
Performance Indicators
Record	26-3 (Home: 18-0)	16-12 (Road: 2-9)
AP Rank	6	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	57
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	6	57
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Kansas State (#13) W 88-74 vs Arizona (#23) W 76-72 (OT)	vs Texas (#9) W 83-80 vs Kansas State (#13) W 84-75
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .)	Current: 9 Forecast: 8	Current: 47 Forecast: 50
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 19.5 Est. Projection: 82-63
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 17.6
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 18.0
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 83-62 96% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 22.4 99.4% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 19.7 Est. Projection: 82-63

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Darnell Jackson	6.37	118.52
Mario Chalmers	6.36	131.37
Conner Teahan*	5.85	6.81
Tyrel Reed*	4.89	12.24
Brennan Bechard*	4.88	1.75
Cole Aldrich	4.84	28.23
Brandon Rush	4.79	100.21
Darrell Arthur	4.54	76.58
Sasha Kaun	4.51	56.95
Russell Robinson	4.16	85.02
Rodrick Stewart	3.77	29.08
Sherron Collins	2.54	36.45
Matt Kleinmann*	1.64	1.19
Jeremy Case*	1.03	2.44
Brad Witherspoon*	-4.13	-1.47
Chase Buford*	-8.99	-3.31

* Rating not based on enough data.

Texas Tech

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Alan Voskuil	3.74	87.62
Damir Suljagic	3.10	32.52
Michael Prince	3.06	13.23
Mike Singletary	2.99	30.23
Martin Zeno	2.90	67.60
Trevor Cook	1.52	15.49
John Roberson	0.79	16.80
Esmir Rizvic	0.71	5.83
Decensae White	0.25	0.24
Charlie Burgess	-0.18	-2.74
Tyler Hoffmeister*	-0.24	-0.17
D'Walyn Roberts	-1.08	-6.32
Rogdrick Craig*	-1.73	-2.80
Ricardo De Bem*	-2.82	-5.74

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Abbreviated due to time constraints ...

TTU has a fairly balanced group of players in terms of contributions. Voskuil has been the best player statistically, both in impact and efficiency. But it's not by a huge margin. There are several solid players on the team, but only Voskuil and Suljagic have been shooting extremely well. Martin Zeno hasn't been quite as efficient as Voskuil, but he's the second biggest contributor on the team in total impact. Zeno's biggest problem is that he shoots only 48.5 eFG% despite taking the biggest percentage of shots on the team. He makes up for it some by being very adept at getting to the free throw line.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Texas Tech
Texas Tech OREB**
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**
Kansas eFG%**
Kansas 2pt FG%**
Texas Tech 2pt FG%**
Kansas OREB**
Kansas 3pt FG%**
Texas Tech % own 2FGA's blocked**
Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
Texas Tech eFG%**
Texas Tech % Poss STL by Opp**
	Texas Tech TO rate
	Texas Tech PTS/Poss
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Texas Tech FT%
	Kansas TO rate
	Kansas FT%
	Texas Tech 3pt FG%
	Kansas FT Rate
	Texas Tech FT Rate

*************************************************************

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Texas Tech will have below avg % of FG's assisted

Expect uptempo game

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	83
Texas Tech	65

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	30	2	5	2	6	2	3	12	2	4	6	2	2	1	1
Cole Aldrich	7	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Darnell Jackson	27	5	7	0	0	3	3	13	2	5	7	1	2	1	1
Darrell Arthur	25	5	10	0	0	2	4	12	3	4	7	1	2	1	1
Mario Chalmers	31	2	4	2	4	3	4	13	0	3	3	4	2	2	1
Rodrick Stewart	11	1	2	0	1	1	1	3	1	1	2	1	1	0	0
Russell Robinson	30	1	2	1	3	3	4	8	1	3	4	4	2	2	0
Sasha Kaun	15	3	4	0	0	2	4	8	2	2	4	0	1	1	1
Sherron Collins	24	2	4	2	4	1	2	11	0	2	2	2	2	1	0
TOTALS	200	22	40	7	18	18	26	83	12	26	38	15	15	9	6

Texas Tech
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Martin Zeno	40	4	9	0	1	6	8	14	1	3	4	2	3	1	0
Alan Voskuil	40	1	4	2	5	3	4	11	0	4	4	1	2	1	0
John Roberson	36	2	5	2	5	2	3	12	0	2	2	3	3	1	0
Mike Singletary	11	2	4	0	0	2	3	6	1	2	3	1	2	0	0
Charlie Burgess	25	1	1	0	2	2	2	4	1	2	3	2	2	1	0
Trevor Cook	11	1	2	1	2	1	2	6	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Damir Suljagic	14	1	3	0	0	1	1	3	2	3	5	0	1	1	1
Esmir Rizvic	9	1	2	0	0	1	2	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Decensae White	14	1	4	1	1	1	2	6	1	2	3	1	2	1	0
TOTALS	200	14	34	6	16	19	27	65	8	21	29	10	17	6	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 83-65
Tempo (# poss)	72
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 56-46%	Look for nerves early (Senior Night) to maybe keep KU's numbers a bit lower.
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 24-21%
O-Reb%	KU 36-24%
FT Rate	TTU 38-31%
Four Factors Overall	This is projected to be a simple case of KU making more of its shots than TTU. The other factors will roughly neutralize each other.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Chalmers/Jackson Opp - Zeno/Roberson
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - Suljagic
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Kaun Opp - Cook
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Jackson Opp - Cook, Suljagic	Kaun and Jackson also project to have much better than avg games.
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Stewart, Rush Opp - Voskuil, Zeno	Bad news for TTU if this holds up.