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Preview: Oklahoma at Kansas Print E-mail
Jan 13, 2008

Oklahoma at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

 KansasOklahoma

Performance Indicators

  
Record16-0
12-4
AP Rank3
NR
(26th most votes)
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)
1
23
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)
3
28
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)

vs Arizona (#25) W 76-72 (OT)
@ Nebraska (#35) W 79-58

@ West Virginia (#7) W 88-82 2OT
vs Gonzaga (#28) W 72-68
RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .)

Current: 7

Forecast: 5

Current: 55

Forecast: 30

Prediction Models

  
Vegas OddsmakersWin by 15
Est. Projection: 77-62
 
Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings)
Win by 15.2
 
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)Win by 13.7 
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)

Win 77-63
92% chance of victory

 
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)
Win by 14.5
99.58% chance of victory
 
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)

Win by 14.7
Est. Projection: 77-62

 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Conner Teahan* 12.60 13.97
Mario Chalmers 7.36 78.60
Darnell Jackson 7.15 68.52
Sasha Kaun 5.53 39.63
Cole Aldrich 5.16 18.32
Jeremy Case* 4.92 11.19
Tyrel Reed 4.91 12.96
Brandon Rush 4.81 44.68
Darrell Arthur 4.13 38.79
Russell Robinson 3.99 44.06
Brennan Bechard* 3.49 1.27
Rodrick Stewart 3.45 22.18
Sherron Collins 2.45 14.39
Matt Kleinmann* 2.19 1.41
Brad Witherspoon* -5.78 -2.06
Chase Buford* -13.28 -4.98

 

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

Oklahoma

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

  

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Blake Griffin 7.19 76.52
Tony Crocker 3.71 43.84
Longar Longar 3.50 32.70
Taylor Griffin 2.97 18.81
Austin Johnson 2.09 23.32
Omar Leary 1.61 11.58
David Godbold 1.58 15.02
Cade Davis 0.84 3.01
Tony Neysmith 0.59 1.04
Dau Jok* -5.03 -0.95
Beau Gerber* -7.13 -2.03

 

* Rating not based on enough data.




Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Once again, the Jayhawks take a fairly balanced, supremely talented team into the game against an opponent with one star, a couple of solid players and several marginally effective players.  This time, it's Oklahoma that offers its freshman sensation, Blake Griffin, as the major challenge KU must overcome.  Griffin is shooting an outstanding 60 eFG% while using over 26% of his team's possession while on the floor.  That's impressive for any player, let alone a freshman who is getting the defense's majority of attention.  He's a beast on the boards (both ends), gets to the FT line with regularity, doesn't turn it over often and even gets plenty of BLK and STL.  There really is nothing he's incapable of, except that he doesn't have the 3FG in his repertoire.  At 6-10 and 239 pounds, he's a menacing figure and cannot be underestimated, even in the hallowed Allen Fieldhouse where KU reigns supreme.

 

Tony Crocker and Longar Longar are the other two main weapons for the Sooners.  Crocker is the better offensive player of the two, shooting a sizzling 61 eFG% including 49% from 3FG.  Both he and Longar average in double figures, but Longar shoots 55 eFG% and takes the highest percentage of the team's shots while he's on the floor (28%).  Longar is a great offensive rebounder and capable shot-blocker and defensive rebounder.  Along with Crocker and Blake Griffin, these three have contributed the most to OU's performance so far this season.

 

Austin Johnson has been efficient offensively, but he hasn't contributed a whole lot overall.  He shoots a respectable 53 eFG%, including 35% from behind the arc.  He does a bit of everything in his 29 MIN/g without many TO's.  His FT shooting could use some improvement though (68%).  Taylor Griffin is shooting 52 eFG% (46% from 3FG) but only shoots 67% from the line and turns it over too often.  David Godbold is normally the other offensive weapon on this team, but he has really struggled shooting from the perimeter this season.

 

Brandon Rush is coming off a terrific performance against Nebraska, while Sherron Collins looks to bounce back from a poor effort.  KU sports seven players with ePSAN70 ratings of +4.00, which is generally a very good player.  Not one of their players is below +2.00, which is generally a good cutoff for decent performance. 

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Oklahoma

Provided for Phog.net preview for this game
 
 

 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) 

 

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for Oklahoma
Oklahoma % Poss STL by Opp**    
Oklahoma FT%**    
Oklahoma % own 2FGA's blocked**    
Kansas TO rate**    
Oklahoma OREB**    
  Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked  
  Oklahoma TO rate  
  Kansas 2pt FG%  
  Kansas PTS/Poss  
  Kansas eFG%  
  Kansas OREB  
  Oklahoma 2pt FG%  
  Oklahoma FT Rate  
  Oklahoma PTS/Poss  
  Kansas % Poss STL by Opp  
  Oklahoma eFG%  
  Kansas 3pt FG%  
  Kansas FT%  
    Oklahoma 3pt FG%
    Kansas FT Rate**

 

************************************************************* 

Expect average-paced game

 

 

 

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

 

Projected Boxscore

 

Kansas 76                            
Oklahoma 63                            
                               
Kansas                              
PLAYER MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Brandon Rush 24 2 4 2 4 1 2 11 2 3 5 1 1 1 1
Cole Aldrich 9 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 3 0 1 0 1
Darnell Jackson 22 4 7 0 0 2 3 10 3 4 7 1 1 1 1
Darrell Arthur 23 5 10 0 1 2 2 12 2 3 5 0 2 1 1
Jeremy Case 6 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Mario Chalmers 27 2 4 2 4 1 2 11 0 2 2 4 2 3 0
Rodrick Stewart 16 2 3 0 1 1 1 5 2 1 3 2 1 1 0
Russell Robinson 26 1 2 1 4 1 2 6 1 2 3 4 2 3 0
Sasha Kaun 17 3 4 0 0 2 3 8 2 2 4 0 1 0 1
Sherron Collins 21 2 4 1 4 1 1 8 0 2 2 2 2 2 0
Tyrel Reed 9 0 1 1 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
TOTALS 200 22 42 7 21 11 17 76 13 21 34 16 13 12 5
                               
Oklahoma                              
PLAYER MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Blake Griffin 30 5 9 0 0 3 6 13 2 6 8 2 3 1 1
Longar Longar 26 4 8 0 0 3 5 11 2 4 6 1 4 0 1
Tony Crocker 33 1 4 2 4 2 2 10 1 4 5 3 3 1 0
Austin Johnson 31 1 1 2 4 1 2 9 0 2 2 2 2 1 0
David Godbold 27 1 3 1 3 2 2 7 1 3 4 2 2 1 0
Omar Leary 21 1 2 1 3 1 1 6 0 1 1 1 2 1 0
Taylor Griffin 18 1 3 0 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 0
Cade Davis 14 0 1 1 3 1 1 4 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
TOTALS 200 14 31 7 18 14 21 63 7 23 30 12 18 6 2

 

 

Projection Summary

 

 
Projection
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 76-63
 
 Tempo (# poss)
 70 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 52-50%  This should make the game fairly easy to watch.
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 26-19%  
 O-Reb% KU 36-25%
 
 FT Rate OU 29-17% 
 Four Factors Overall
 KU's edge in TO and OREB should be enough to make up for OU's slight advantage at the line.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur, Chalmers/Rush

 Opp - B. Griffin, Longar

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - B. Griffin

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - B. Griffin

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Stewart, Rush

 Opp - Johnson, Godbold

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Chalmers, Arthur

 Opp - Davis, T. Griffin

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sports and Numbers Projection

Kansas wins 76-63

(final projection)

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Included in Phog.net preview for this game