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Preview: Ohio at Kansas (in Kansas City, MO) Print E-mail
Dec 15, 2007

Ohio at Kansas (Kansas City, MO)

 KansasOhio

Performance Indicators

  
Record9-0
6-2
AP Rank3
NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		3
68 
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		4
89
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)

@ Southern California (#20) W 59-55
vs Arizona (#21) W 76-72 (OT) 

vs New Mexico St (#63) W 80-72
@ Maryland (#72) W 61-55
RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength)		34
47

Prediction Models

  
Vegas OddsmakersWin by 18.5
Est. Projection: 83-64 		 
Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings)		Win by 17.5
(Not enough data for good accuracy) 		 
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)Win by 14.9
(Not enough data for good accuracy)
 
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)

Win 79-62
94% chance of victory

 
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location.  If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, other recent games used to make 10 total.)		Win by 15.9
99.97% chance of victory
(Not enough data for good accuracy) 		 
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)

Win by 17.0
Est. Projection: 81-64
(Not enough data for good accuracy)

 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season


Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Conner Teahan* 15.93 11.52
Mario Chalmers 6.94 46.54
Cole Aldrich 5.86 12.65
Tyrel Reed 5.71 10.67
Sasha Kaun 5.49 22.33
Darnell Jackson 5.41 29.17
Matt Kleinmann* 4.04 1.76
Rodrick Stewart 3.92 18.32
Darrell Arthur 3.25 18.53
Sherron Collins 3.06 5.17
Brandon Rush 2.72 11.56
Russell Robinson 2.51 16.29
Brennan Bechard* 1.41 0.45
Jeremy Case* 0.99 1.47
Brad Witherspoon* -6.17 -1.68
Chase Buford* -18.64 -5.48

 

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

Ohio

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

  

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Leon Williams 7.25 39.13
Andrew Vroman* 3.98 0.38
Jerome Tillman 3.96 20.82
Bubba Walther 3.68 21.21
Justin Orr 2.26 12.22
Michael Allen -0.01 -0.07
Allen Hester -0.45 -0.59
Kenneth van Kempen -1.50 -4.58
DeVaughn Washington* -3.67 -4.47
Asown Sayles* -3.71 -0.71
Tommy Freeman -3.83 -7.13
Bert Whittington -4.61 -18.93

 

* Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

 

This is a bit short, as I just got back from vacation and am still recovering from a poorly-timed illness (when isn't it poorly timed?)

 

A quick glance at the ratings for both teams shows very opposite stories.  Kansas showcases a largely balanced lineup, with star performance numbers from Mario Chalmer leading the way.  Meanwhile, Ohio sports the monster performer inside, Leon Williams.  By any accounts, the 6-8 255-pound senior has been terrorizing opponents.  He shoots just over 60 eFG% (no 3FGA's) and is the #6 offensive rebounder in the nation (even #177 on DREB%).  He is a master at getting to the line and converting, plus he gets steals on 3.3% of possessions.   Although Williams has a few teammates who have performed solidly, he also has to contend with a couple who have really dragged down the team's efficiency (Whittington and Freeman).  That's the big difference between the two teams.  Kansas has no players in its regular rotation who consistently have had a net negative impact.  So there is really no margin for error for Ohio to have a chance at a big upset.  It's always possible with a guy like Williams, but KU's defense should be able to contain things enough to make a close game about the worst-case scenario.  Still, some Jayhawk fans have a hard time letting go of tough losses to mid-majors in recent years, so they will be anxious to see KU put away the Bobcats as soon as possible.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Ohio

Offense #24 - Defense #3 - Tempo #79
Rank #13 in eFG%, including #8 2FG%
Rank #8 in forcing TO's and #38 in avoiding own TO's
Rank #48 in limiting opp OREB%
Limit opp 2FG% impeccably (#13)
Dominate the BLK category (#7 limit own, #7 block opp)
Virtually peerless in STL rate (#2)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#23)

 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 9)

Mario Chalmers - #99 eFG%, #144 AST rate, #13 STL rate
Russell Robinson - #186 STL rate
Darrell Arthur - #108 BLK rate
Darnell Jackson - #57 OREB%
Sasha Kaun - #24 BLK rate
Brandon Rush - #102 TO rate (good) 		Offense #16 - Defense #147 - Tempo #259
Rank #25 in eFG% (#50 in 2FG%, #30 in 3FG%)
Rank #34 in OREB%
Excellent at avoiding BLK (#9)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 9)

Bubba Walther - #121 eFG%, #160 TO rate (good)
Leon Williams - #6 OREB%, #177 DREB%, #15 FT rate
Justin Orr - #4 eFG%
Jerome Tillmans - #188 eFG%, #60 DREB%
Michael Allen - #72 AST rate 
Scoring Distribution:
On offense, KU relies more on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, OU is farily balanced, while its opponents rely heavily on 3FG's.

 

 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

 

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for Ohio
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**    
Kansas 2pt FG%**    
Kansas eFG%**    
Ohio TO rate**    
Kansas PTS/Poss**    
Ohio % Poss STL by Opp**    
Kansas TO rate**    
  Kansas 3pt FG%  
  Ohio FT%  
  Ohio 2pt FG%  
  Ohio PTS/Poss  
  Kansas OREB  
  Ohio % own 2FGA's blocked  
  Kansas % Poss STL by Opp  
  Ohio OREB  
  Ohio FT Rate  
  Ohio eFG%  
  Kansas FT%  
    Kansas FT Rate
    Ohio 3pt FG%**

 

************************** 

Kansas will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt
Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted
 
Ohio will have above avg % of FG's assisted
Kansas plays faster tempo than Ohio
 

 

 

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)



Manual Adjustment

Rationale 

 None
 

 

Projected Boxscore

(Not enough game data for accuracy)

 

Kansas 81                            
Ohio 64                            
                               
Kansas                              
NAME MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Brandon Rush 21 2 5 2 4 1 1 11 1 2 3 1 1 1 0
Cole Aldrich 9 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 3 0 1 0 1
Darnell Jackson 21 4 6 0 1 2 2 10 3 3 6 1 2 1 0
Darrell Arthur 23 5 9 0 1 1 2 11 2 2 4 1 2 1 1
Jeremy Case 7 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Mario Chalmers 26 2 4 2 4 1 2 11 0 2 2 4 2 2 0
Rodrick Stewart 18 2 3 0 1 1 2 5 2 1 3 3 1 1 0
Russell Robinson 26 1 1 1 4 2 2 7 1 1 2 4 2 1 0
Sasha Kaun 16 3 3 0 0 2 3 8 2 2 4 0 1 1 1
Sherron Collins 21 2 3 2 5 1 2 11 0 2 2 3 1 2 0
Tyrel Reed 12 1 1 1 2 0 0 5 0 1 1 2 0 0 0
TOTALS 200 23 38 8 23 11 17 81 12 18 30 20 13 10 3
                               
Ohio                              
NAME MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Leon Williams 26 3 7 0 0 6 8 12 4 6 10 2 4 2 0
Bubba Walther 28 1 2 2 6 3 4 11 0 2 2 3 2 2 0
Jerome Tillman 29 3 6 1 1 3 4 12 2 6 8 1 3 1 0
Justin Orr 26 2 4 1 2 2 3 9 1 2 3 2 3 1 0
Bert Whittington 20 1 3 1 3 1 2 6 0 1 1 1 2 1 0
Michael Allen 26 1 3 1 1 1 2 6 0 2 2 4 3 1 0
Kenneth van Kempen 15 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 1 1 0 1
Allen Hester 13 0 1 1 2 0 0 3 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
Tommy Freeman 10 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
DeVaughn Washington 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
TOTALS 200 13 30 7 16 17 24 64 8 24 32 14 21 8 1

 

 

Projected Four Factor Performance

 

  • eFG% - Advantage KU 57-51%.
  • TURNOVERS - Advantage KU 30-19%
  • OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Advantage KU 33-31%
  • FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Advantage OU 37-18%
  • OVERALL - Turnovers will be the biggest difference maker for KU, with eFG% advantage close behind.  Ohio's ownership of the FT line is what prevents this from projecting as a walkover.

 

Player Ratings Projections

 

 Statistic

(minimum 10 MIN projected playing time) 

Kansas

 

Ohio

 

 Highest Game Impact (cPSAN)
 Sasha Kaun
 Leon Williams
 Highest Efficiency (cPSAN70) Sasha Kaun  Leon Williams
 Highest cPSAN70 compared to season avg Sasha Kaun, Sherron Collins
 Bert Whittington, Jerome Tillman
 Lowest cPSAN70 compared to season avg
 Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur  Allen Hester, Tommy Freeman

 

Sports and Numbers Projection

Kansas wins 81-64

(final projection, including all models) 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Leon Williams is OU's main chance for victory.  He must get to the FT line often and grab plenty of OREB to give improve his chances of shooting a high eFG%.  The projection of 6-8 FT is not going to cut it. Leon Williams to attempt at least 12 FT and secure at least 5 OREB  

 

 Tempo appears to be important because KU plays a fast pace, while OU plays very slowly.  However, correlation analysis shows that at higher paces, KU's offensive and defensive efficiencies have both deteriorated, while the opposite has happened for OU.  Ironically, both teams may benefit from the opposite of their current tempo tendencies.  If, however, the lower pace also coincides with very few TO's for Ohio, this may bode poorly for KU, since their halfcourt offense has been lacking.  On the other hand, correlation shows that when OU turns it over a lot, their opponents don't score as efficiently -- go figure!  Maybe the only thing we can hang our hat on is that higher tempo usually favors the better team. Confusing signals, so no metric.  Just watch for effects of tempo.
  
 Sherron Collins' return from injury last game showed how he can change the game.  Whether his atrophied leg muscles are strong enough to make him a consistent factor in the offense may be key.  One measure of that will be his minutes, and the other will likely be the possessions he uses (FG's or FT's that end a possession, or turnovers) indicating his involvement in the offense.  Collins to play at least 18 min and use 22% of possessions while on floor