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See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page. You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.

Preview: Nebraska at Kansas

Jan 24, 2008

Nebraska at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Nebraska
Performance Indicators
Record	19-0	11-5
AP Rank	2	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	41
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	1	91
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Arizona (#24) W 76-72 (OT) vs Oklahoma (#26) W 85-55	vs Arizona St (#37) W 62-47 vs Oregon (#38) W 88-79 (OT)
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .)	Current: 3 Forecast: 3	Current: 159 Forecast: 142
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 21 Est. Projection: 77-56
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 22.5
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 21.7
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 72-54 97% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 26.5 99.998% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 22.2 Est. Projection: 76-53

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	11.02	12.99
Mario Chalmers	7.96	104.21
Darnell Jackson	7.68	91.88
Cole Aldrich	5.48	23.87
Brandon Rush	5.07	60.83
Sasha Kaun	4.90	40.71
Tyrel Reed*	4.79	12.63
Russell Robinson	4.25	54.89
Darrell Arthur	4.00	44.05
Rodrick Stewart	3.91	26.77
Jeremy Case*	3.64	8.74
Brennan Bechard*	3.46	1.18
Sherron Collins	1.89	15.40
Matt Kleinmann*	0.25	0.17
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.74	-1.91
Chase Buford*	-13.23	-4.64

* Rating not based on enough data.

Nebraska

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Aleks Maric	6.93	68.54
Chris Balham*	5.21	11.32
Nick Krenk*	3.64	2.75
Cole Salomon*	2.42	1.93
Ryan Anderson	2.26	23.07
Paul Velander	2.25	9.44
Ben Nelson*	1.48	0.85
Ade Dagunduro	1.41	12.79
Cookie Miller	0.74	6.98
Andrew Wicklund*	0.41	0.20
Jay-R Strowbridge	-0.65	-4.87
Steve Harley	-0.70	-5.19
Sek Henry	-0.71	-5.47
Shang Ping	-0.84	-3.49

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Not much has changed since the last meeting between these two teams a couple of weeks ago. It's still Maric shouldering the burden for NU with a couple of other potential weapons against an onslaught of NBA-level and college-star level talent from KU. The Jayhawks have the depth, athleticism and homecourt edge. The only thing in question this game should be whether KU beats the spread.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Nebraska
Offense #4 - Defense #2 - Tempo #84 Strengths on offense are eFG% (#3) and minimizing TO Rate (#20) Strong in all Four Factors defensively (#15 eFG%, #30 TO Rate, #29 OREB%, #36 limit opp FT Rate) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#9) 2nd best in nation at forcing STL Shoot well outside (#46 on 3FG%) and inside (#3 on 2FG%) Dominate the BLK category (#1 limit own, #3 block opp) Very high % of FG's assisted (#31) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 20) Mario Chalmers - #6 eFG%, #189 AST rate, #9 STL% Russell Robinson - #170 FT Rate, #31 STL% Darrell Arthur - #67 BLK% Darnell Jackson - #4 eFG%, #131 OREB%, #125 DREB% Sasha Kaun - #43 BLK% Brandon Rush - #127 TO rate (good)	Offense #102 - Defense #17 - Tempo #295 Defensively very strong in eFG% (#26), TO Rate (#13), OREB% (#38) Give up very high 3FG% (#298) Shoot the 2FG well (#43) and defend it better than anyone (#1 in opp 2FG%) Force plenty of STL (#17) Very high % of FG's assisted (#34) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 20) Aleks Maric - #188 eFG%, #13 OREB%, #149 DREB%, #53 FT Rate, #198 TO Rate, #31 BLK% Cookie Miller - #107 AST Rate, #45 STL% Steve Harley - #152 STL%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies most heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, NU less on 3FG's, while its opponents rely more than any other team's opponents in the country on 3FG's.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	77
Nebraska	52

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	25	1	5	2	4	1	2	9	1	4	5	2	1	1	1
Cole Aldrich	9	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Darnell Jackson	23	4	7	0	0	2	3	10	3	5	8	1	1	1	1
Darrell Arthur	22	4	9	0	1	2	2	10	2	4	6	0	2	1	2
Jeremy Case	6	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Mario Chalmers	28	2	2	3	4	2	2	15	0	3	3	4	2	3	0
Rodrick Stewart	14	1	1	0	1	1	1	3	2	2	4	2	1	1	0
Russell Robinson	26	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	1	2	3	4	2	3	1
Sasha Kaun	17	2	4	0	0	2	3	6	2	2	4	0	1	1	2
Sherron Collins	22	1	4	2	4	1	1	9	0	2	2	2	2	2	0
Tyrel Reed	8	0	1	1	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	17	38	10	20	13	17	77	12	26	38	17	13	13	8

Nebraska
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Aleks Maric	28	4	9	0	0	3	6	11	3	4	7	1	3	1	1
Ade Dagunduro	25	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	1	3	4	1	3	1	0
Ryan Anderson	28	1	3	1	4	1	1	6	1	4	5	1	2	1	0
Steve Harley	22	1	5	0	1	1	2	3	1	2	3	1	1	1	0
Cookie Miller	26	1	3	1	2	1	1	6	0	2	2	2	2	1	0
Jay-R Strowbridge	21	1	2	1	3	1	1	6	0	1	1	1	2	0	0
Sek Henry	22	1	2	0	2	1	1	3	0	3	3	1	2	1	0
Paul Velander	13	0	0	1	3	0	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Shang Ping	12	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	1
Chris Balham	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
TOTALS	200	13	32	5	17	11	17	52	8	21	29	9	17	7	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 77-52
Tempo (# poss)	66
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Chalmers, Arthur/Jackson Opp - Maric, Dagunduro
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Chalmers Opp - Maric
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Chalmers Opp - Maric
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Chalmers, Stewart Opp - Ping, Dagunduro
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Rush, Arthur Opp - Harley, Maric