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Preview: Miami (Ohio) at Kansas

Dec 21, 2007

Miami-OH at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Miami-OH
Performance Indicators
Record	11-0	6-4
AP Rank	3	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	3	56
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	2	60
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Arizona (#13) W 76-72 (OT) @ Southern California (#24) W 59-55	vs Xavier (#16) W 59-57 @ Illinois (#31) W 61-58 OT
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength)	13	36
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 18 Est. Projection: 71-53
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 17.2
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 14.3
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 68-52 95% chance of victory
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location. If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, other recent games used to make 10 total.)	Win by 18.1 99.99% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)	Win by 17.3 Est. Projection: 70-52

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	15.68	12.28
Mario Chalmers	7.34	59.86
Sasha Kaun	6.22	32.19
Cole Aldrich	6.20	15.07
Darnell Jackson	5.44	35.24
Russell Robinson	4.39	34.85
Rodrick Stewart	4.15	21.48
Tyrel Reed	4.14	8.40
Brandon Rush	4.10	23.32
Darrell Arthur	3.70	25.08
Matt Kleinmann*	3.70	1.77
Jeremy Case*	2.41	3.87
Sherron Collins	2.21	6.52
Brennan Bechard*	1.33	0.41
Brad Witherspoon*	-6.17	-1.61
Chase Buford*	-18.69	-5.27

* Rating not based on enough data.

Miami-OH

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Michael Bramos	7.80	52.17
Nick Winbush*	6.86	1.82
Tim Pollitz	5.92	46.33
Tyler Dierkers	5.64	31.71
Isiah Carson*	2.31	1.84
Eric Pollitz	1.10	4.18
Sean Mock*	0.00	0.00
Alex Moosmann	-0.29	-1.67
Adam Fletcher	-0.66	-0.75
Dwight McCombs*	-1.07	-0.98
Kenny Hayes	-1.23	-7.85
Carl Richburg	-2.17	-4.29

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Sorry, not available for this game due to time constraints. Just notice the three extremely efficient contributors for UM, and how much they have contributed overall (cPSAN) compared to their teammates. You think maybe KU will have to focus mostly on these guys? In the projections below, you'll notice that one of them could struggle this time out. KU's attack is very balanced.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Miami-OH
Offense #32 - Defense #2 - Tempo #89 Rank #5 in eFG%, including #5 2FG% Rank #9 in forcing TO's Rank #46 in limiting opp OREB% Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#9) Terrible FT% (#250) Dominate the BLK category (#2 limit own, #4 block opp) Amazing STL rate (#6) Very high % of FG's assisted (#24) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 16) Mario Chalmers - #32 eFG%, #122 AST rate, #6 STL rate Russell Robinson - #129 STL rate Darrell Arthur - #96 BLK rate Darnell Jackson - #73 OREB%, #164 DREB% Sasha Kaun - #189 OREB%, #29 BLK rate Brandon Rush - #92 TO rate (good)	Offense #36 - Defense #97 - Tempo #338 Poor OREB% (#272) Poor at using FT line (#295) Give up very high 2FG% (#262) Rarely lose ball on STL (#15) but rarely STL it back (#286) Very high % of FG's assisted (#25) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 16) Tim Pollitz - #147 AST rate Michael Bramos - #115 eFG%, #3 TO rate (good) Tyler Dierkers - #161 AST rate
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU heavily on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, UM relies very heavily on 3FG's but rarely on FT's, while its opponents rely unusually heavily on 2FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Miami-OH
Kansas 2pt FG%**
Miami-OH FT Rate
Miami-OH OREB**
Miami-OH % own 2FGA's blocked**
Kansas eFG%**
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**
Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
	Kansas TO rate
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Miami-OH TO rate
	Miami-OH 2pt FG%
	Miami-OH PTS/Poss
	Kansas OREB
	Miami-OH % Poss STL by Opp
	Miami-OH FT%
	Miami-OH eFG%
	Kansas 3pt FG%
	Miami-OH 3pt FG%
		Kansas FT Rate
		Kansas FT%**

*************************************************************

Miami-OH will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Miami-OH will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Kansas plays faster tempo than Miami-OH

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	68
Miami-OH	52

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	23	2	5	1	4	1	1	8	1	2	3	1	1	1	1
Cole Aldrich	9	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	3	0	0	0	1
Darnell Jackson	22	3	5	0	0	1	2	7	3	3	6	0	1	1	1
Darrell Arthur	23	4	8	0	0	1	2	9	2	3	5	0	2	1	1
Mario Chalmers	27	2	4	1	3	1	2	8	0	2	2	3	2	2	0
Rodrick Stewart	18	2	3	1	1	1	1	8	1	1	2	2	1	0	0
Russell Robinson	27	1	1	1	3	2	2	7	1	1	2	3	2	1	0
Sasha Kaun	18	3	3	0	0	2	3	8	2	2	4	0	1	0	2
Sherron Collins	21	2	4	1	4	1	1	8	0	2	2	2	1	1	0
Tyrel Reed	12	0	1	1	2	0	0	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	20	36	6	17	10	15	68	11	19	30	12	11	7	6

Miami-OH
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Tim Pollitz	37	5	11	0	1	3	3	13	2	5	7	3	4	1	0
Michael Bramos	35	3	5	3	6	3	4	18	1	4	5	1	1	1	1
Kenny Hayes	30	1	4	1	3	2	2	7	1	4	5	1	2	1	0
Alex Moosmann	28	0	1	1	3	1	1	4	0	1	1	1	2	1	0
Tyler Dierkers	30	1	2	0	1	1	1	3	1	4	5	3	2	2	1
Eric Pollitz	18	1	1	1	1	0	1	5	1	2	3	1	2	0	0
Carl Richburg	12	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	0
Adam Fletcher	10	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
TOTALS	200	12	26	6	16	10	13	52	6	22	28	12	15	6	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 68-52
Tempo (# poss)	58
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 55-50%	If KU's health has improved, this may be too high a projected eFG% for UM.
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 26-19%
O-Reb%	KU 33-24%
FT Rate	UM 24-19%	Even though they will have a higher FT rate, it doesn't project to an advantage in scoring at the FT line. The FT rate is affected by how many field goals are attempted, thus the discrepancy.
Four Factors Overall	Healthy advantages in shooting, turnovers and rebounding should power KU to victory.
Leading Scorers	KU - Arthur (several others tied 2nd) Opp - Bramos, T. Pollitz	Wow! Projections show no KU players in double figures. Incredible distribution of scoring in a slow game.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (>10 min played)
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Kaun Opp - Bramos
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Kaun Opp - Bramos
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Stewart Opp - E. Pollitz, Hayes
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Chalmers, Rush Opp - Richburg, T. Pollitz