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Preview: Loyola (MD) at Kansas

Jan 7, 2008

Loyola (MD) at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Loyola (MD)
Performance Indicators
Record	14-0	6-8
AP Rank	3	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	248
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	3	232
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Arizona (#21) W 76-72 (OT) @ Southern California (#41) W 59-55	vs American (#184) W 71-67 vs Manhattan (#214) W 77-54
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength)	9	230
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 32 Est. Projection: 89-57
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 31.5
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 33.2
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 93-54 100% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. If 5 venue-appropriate games not available, other recent games used to make 7 total.)	Win by 41.1 99.9998% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)	Win by 34.5 Est. Projection: 91-56

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	12.48	11.36
Mario Chalmers (OUT)	7.40	74.29
Darnell Jackson	7.34	61.27
Cole Aldrich	6.42	20.43
Tyrel Reed	4.78	11.69
Sasha Kaun	4.64	28.90
Darrell Arthur	4.34	36.37
Russell Robinson	4.09	39.79
Brandon Rush	3.97	30.69
Rodrick Stewart	3.64	21.04
Brennan Bechard*	3.07	1.06
Matt Kleinmann*	2.51	1.43
Sherron Collins	2.30	10.19
Jeremy Case*	1.70	3.20
Brad Witherspoon*	-3.40	-1.14
Chase Buford*	-14.64	-5.21

* Rating not based on enough data.

Loyola (MD)

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Tony Lewis*	5.86	7.29
Dan Ficke*	2.60	2.79
Greg Manning*	2.36	3.56
Gerald Brown	0.78	8.26
Garrett Kelly*	0.27	0.12
Omari Isreal	-0.36	-3.13
Michael Tuck	-0.42	-3.75
Marquis Sullivan	-0.64	-4.80
Isaac Reid	-1.17	-4.52
Brett Harvey	-1.84	-16.01
Brian Rudolph	-2.41	-17.53
Hassan Fofana	-5.24	-15.96
Joe Miles	-5.47	-29.21

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Only one player with enough data for L-MD has a positive efficiency rating, and it's 0.78 (Gerald Brown). Any questions?

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Loyola (MD)
Offense #9 - Defense #2 - Tempo #90 Excellent shooting (#2 eFG%, #3 on 2FG%) Rank #3 in forcing TO's, including #2 in STL pct, all while ranking #34 in avoiding own TO Poor use of FT line (#267 FT Rate) but limit opponents' use of FT line (#40) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#10) Terrible FT% (#276) Dominate the BLK category (#5 limit own, #4 block opp) Very high % of FG's assisted (#39) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1) Mario Chalmers - #11 eFG%, #187 AST rate, #5 STL% Russell Robinson - #21 STL% Darrell Arthur - #85 BLK% Darnell Jackson - #59 OREB% Sasha Kaun - #25 BLK% Brandon Rush - #103 TO rate (good)	Offense #216 - Defense #271 - Tempo #147 Let opponents use FT line too well (#306) Excellent FT% (#16) Get blocked too often (#305) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1) Gerald Brown - #173 FT rate, #160 TO rate, #56 STL% Michael Tuck - #155 DREB% Brett Harvey - #138 AST Rate Omari Israel - #177 BLK%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, L-MD relies more on FT's but less than average on 2FG's, while its opponents rely a high amount on FT's but less so on 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Loyola
Loyola % own 2FGA's blocked**
Kansas PTS/Poss**
Loyola 2pt FG%**
Loyola PTS/Poss**
Kansas TO rate**
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**
Loyola eFG%
Kansas eFG%**
Kansas 2pt FG%**
Loyola TO rate**
Kansas OREB
Loyola % Poss STL by Opp**
Kansas 3pt FG%
	Loyola OREB
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
	Loyola FT Rate
	Kansas FT Rate
	Kansas FT%
	Loyola 3pt FG%
	Loyola FT%

*************************************************************

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Loyola will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Expect uptempo game

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	96
Loyola-Maryland	56

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brad Witherspoon	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Rush	25	3	6	2	4	2	3	14	1	3	4	2	1	1	1
Brennan Bechard	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chase Buford	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cole Aldrich	9	1	2	0	0	1	2	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Conner Teahan	4	0	0	2	2	0	0	6	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Darnell Jackson	24	5	7	0	0	4	6	14	3	4	7	1	2	1	1
Darrell Arthur	25	6	10	0	1	4	5	16	3	4	7	1	2	1	2
Jeremy Case	7	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	0
Matt Kleinmann	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Rodrick Stewart	17	2	3	0	1	2	3	6	2	2	4	3	1	1	0
Russell Robinson	29	1	2	1	4	3	5	8	1	2	3	6	2	3	1
Sasha Kaun	18	3	4	0	0	4	7	10	2	2	4	1	1	1	2
Sherron Collins	22	2	4	2	4	2	2	12	0	2	2	4	2	2	0
Tyrel Reed	11	1	1	1	2	0	0	5	0	1	1	2	0	1	0
TOTALS	200	25	41	8	21	22	34	96	14	23	37	22	13	11	8

Loyola-Maryland
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Gerald Brown	32	3	8	2	5	6	7	18	1	3	4	2	3	2	0
Marquis Sullivan	22	1	3	2	6	0	1	8	1	2	3	1	2	1	0
Michael Tuck	27	3	5	0	2	1	1	7	1	4	5	1	3	0	0
Omari Isreal	26	2	5	0	0	2	3	6	2	2	4	1	3	0	1
Brian Rudolph	22	1	2	0	1	2	2	4	0	1	1	2	3	1	0
Brett Harvey	26	0	1	1	2	1	2	4	1	2	3	3	2	1	0
Joe Miles	19	1	3	1	3	1	1	6	0	1	1	2	3	1	0
Isaac Reid	11	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Hassan Fofana	11	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Tony Lewis	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	12	31	6	19	14	18	56	8	19	27	12	21	6	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 96-56
Tempo (# poss)	73
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 60-42%
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 29-18%
O-Reb%	KU 42-26%
FT Rate	KU 35-28%	Rare for KU to be projected with advantage here
Four Factors Overall	An expected romp by virtue of domination in every category, particularly eFG%.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Arthur, Jackson/Rush Opp - Brown, Sullivan
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - Brown
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Reed Opp - Brown
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Reed, Collins Opp - Brown, Fofana
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Jackson, Robinson Opp - Isreal, Tuck