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Preview: Loyola (MD) at Kansas Print E-mail
Jan 7, 2008

Loyola (MD) at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

 KansasLoyola (MD)

Performance Indicators

  
Record14-0
6-8
AP Rank3
NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		1
248
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		3
232
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)

vs Arizona (#21) W 76-72 (OT)
@ Southern California (#41) W 59-55

vs American (#184) W 71-67
vs Manhattan (#214) W 77-54
RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength)		9
230

Prediction Models

  
Vegas OddsmakersWin by 32
Est. Projection: 89-57 		 
Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings)		Win by 31.5
 
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)Win by 33.2
 
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)

Win 93-54
100% chance of victory

 
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.  If 5 venue-appropriate games not available, other recent games used to make 7 total.)		Win by 41.1
99.9998% chance of victory 		 
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)

Win by 34.5
Est. Projection: 91-56

 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Conner Teahan* 12.48 11.36
Mario Chalmers (OUT) 7.40 74.29
Darnell Jackson 7.34 61.27
Cole Aldrich 6.42 20.43
Tyrel Reed 4.78 11.69
Sasha Kaun 4.64 28.90
Darrell Arthur 4.34 36.37
Russell Robinson 4.09 39.79
Brandon Rush 3.97 30.69
Rodrick Stewart 3.64 21.04
Brennan Bechard* 3.07 1.06
Matt Kleinmann* 2.51 1.43
Sherron Collins 2.30 10.19
Jeremy Case* 1.70 3.20
Brad Witherspoon* -3.40 -1.14
Chase Buford* -14.64 -5.21

 

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

Loyola (MD)

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

  

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Tony Lewis* 5.86 7.29
Dan Ficke* 2.60 2.79
Greg Manning* 2.36 3.56
Gerald Brown 0.78 8.26
Garrett Kelly* 0.27 0.12
Omari Isreal -0.36 -3.13
Michael Tuck -0.42 -3.75
Marquis Sullivan -0.64 -4.80
Isaac Reid -1.17 -4.52
Brett Harvey -1.84 -16.01
Brian Rudolph -2.41 -17.53
Hassan Fofana -5.24 -15.96
Joe Miles -5.47 -29.21

 

* Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Only one player with enough data for L-MD has a positive efficiency rating, and it's 0.78 (Gerald Brown).  Any questions?

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Loyola (MD)

Offense #9 - Defense #2 - Tempo #90
Excellent shooting (#2 eFG%, #3 on 2FG%)
Rank #3 in forcing TO's, including #2 in STL pct, all while ranking #34 in avoiding own TO
Poor use of FT line (#267 FT Rate) but limit opponents' use of FT line (#40)
Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#10)
Terrible FT% (#276)
Dominate the BLK category (#5 limit own, #4 block opp)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#39)

 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1)

Mario Chalmers - #11 eFG%, #187 AST rate, #5 STL%
Russell Robinson - #21 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #85 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #59 OREB%
Sasha Kaun - #25 BLK%
Brandon Rush - #103 TO rate (good)

Offense #216 - Defense #271 - Tempo #147
Let opponents use FT line too well (#306)
Excellent FT% (#16)
Get blocked too often (#305)

 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1)

Gerald Brown - #173 FT rate, #160 TO rate, #56 STL%
Michael Tuck - #155 DREB%
Brett Harvey - #138 AST Rate
Omari Israel - #177 BLK%

Scoring Distribution:

On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, L-MD relies more on FT's but less than average on 2FG's, while its opponents rely a high amount on FT's but less so on 3FG's.

 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

 

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for Loyola
Loyola % own 2FGA's blocked**    
Kansas PTS/Poss**    
Loyola 2pt FG%**    
Loyola PTS/Poss**    
Kansas TO rate**    
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**    
Loyola eFG%    
Kansas eFG%**    
Kansas 2pt FG%**    
Loyola TO rate**    
Kansas OREB    
Loyola % Poss STL by Opp**    
Kansas 3pt FG%    
  Loyola OREB  
  Kansas % Poss STL by Opp  
  Loyola FT Rate  
  Kansas FT Rate  
  Kansas FT%  
  Loyola 3pt FG%  
  Loyola FT%  

 

************************************************************* 

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt
Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted
Loyola will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt
Expect uptempo game

 

 

 

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

 

Projected Boxscore

 

Kansas 96                            
Loyola-Maryland 56                            
                               
Kansas                              
PLAYER MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Brad Witherspoon 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brandon Rush 25 3 6 2 4 2 3 14 1 3 4 2 1 1 1
Brennan Bechard 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chase Buford 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cole Aldrich 9 1 2 0 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 0 1 0 1
Conner Teahan 4 0 0 2 2 0 0 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Darnell Jackson 24 5 7 0 0 4 6 14 3 4 7 1 2 1 1
Darrell Arthur 25 6 10 0 1 4 5 16 3 4 7 1 2 1 2
Jeremy Case 7 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
Matt Kleinmann 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rodrick Stewart 17 2 3 0 1 2 3 6 2 2 4 3 1 1 0
Russell Robinson 29 1 2 1 4 3 5 8 1 2 3 6 2 3 1
Sasha Kaun 18 3 4 0 0 4 7 10 2 2 4 1 1 1 2
Sherron Collins 22 2 4 2 4 2 2 12 0 2 2 4 2 2 0
Tyrel Reed 11 1 1 1 2 0 0 5 0 1 1 2 0 1 0
TOTALS 200 25 41 8 21 22 34 96 14 23 37 22 13 11 8
                               
Loyola-Maryland                              
PLAYER MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Gerald Brown 32 3 8 2 5 6 7 18 1 3 4 2 3 2 0
Marquis Sullivan 22 1 3 2 6 0 1 8 1 2 3 1 2 1 0
Michael Tuck 27 3 5 0 2 1 1 7 1 4 5 1 3 0 0
Omari Isreal 26 2 5 0 0 2 3 6 2 2 4 1 3 0 1
Brian Rudolph 22 1 2 0 1 2 2 4 0 1 1 2 3 1 0
Brett Harvey 26 0 1 1 2 1 2 4 1 2 3 3 2 1 0
Joe Miles 19 1 3 1 3 1 1 6 0 1 1 2 3 1 0
Isaac Reid 11 1 2 0 0 1 1 3 1 1 2 0 1 0 0
Hassan Fofana 11 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 0 1
Tony Lewis 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
TOTALS 200 12 31 6 19 14 18 56 8 19 27 12 21 6 2

 

 

Projection Summary

 

 
Projection
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 96-56  
 Tempo (# poss)
 73 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 60-42%  
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 29-18%  
 O-Reb% KU 42-26%
 
 FT Rate KU 35-28% Rare for KU to be projected with advantage here
 Four Factors Overall
 An expected romp by virtue of domination in every category, particularly eFG%.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur, Jackson/Rush

 Opp - Brown, Sullivan

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - Brown

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Reed

 Opp - Brown

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Reed, Collins

 Opp - Brown, Fofana

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Jackson, Robinson

 Opp - Isreal, Tuck

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sports and Numbers Projection

Kansas wins 96-56

(final projection)

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Top-secret technology employed by Loyola could unseat the Jayhawks if they're not careful.  Have the Greyhounds developed a remote control force shield that can obscure portions of the opening to the Jayhawks' basket?  I guess we'll have to wait and see.