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See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page. You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.

Preview: Kansas vs Texas (Big 12 Tournament)

Mar 16, 2008

Kansas vs Texas (Big 12 Tournament - Kansas City, MO)

	Kansas	Texas
Performance Indicators
Record	29-3	27-5
AP Rank	5	6
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	9
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	4	8
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength)	7	5
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 6 Est. Projection: 71-65
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 5.5
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 9.4
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 76-65 86% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 12.1 93.6% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 7.9 Est. Projection: 73-65

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Darnell Jackson	6.95	141.30
Mario Chalmers	6.55	152.91
Brennan Bechard*	5.63	2.25
Cole Aldrich	5.60	39.04
Tyrel Reed*	5.21	13.71
Darrell Arthur	4.99	94.62
Brandon Rush	4.97	116.64
Russell Robinson	4.85	109.95
Conner Teahan*	4.67	5.83
Sasha Kaun	4.62	66.09
Rodrick Stewart	4.30	32.93
Sherron Collins	3.64	62.30
Jeremy Case*	3.61	9.47
Matt Kleinmann*	2.35	2.10
Chase Buford*	-3.77	-1.54
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.89	-3.28

* Rating not based on enough data.

Texas

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Harrison Smith*	8.67	6.61
Dexter Pittman*	7.13	30.30
Connor Atchley	6.32	133.27
Damion James	6.00	142.72
Ian Mooney*	4.58	6.46
J.D. Lewis*	4.52	9.71
D.J. Augustin	2.80	79.28
Alexis Wangmene	2.70	20.31
A.J. Abrams	2.67	70.35
Clint Chapman*	2.04	10.15
Justin Mason	1.53	37.98
Matt Hill* (OUT)	0.00	0.00
Gary Johnson	-0.22	-1.68

* Rating not based on enough data.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Texas
Kansas TO rate
Kansas OREB**
Texas FT Rate
Texas 2pt FG%**
Texas eFG%**
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
	Texas FT%
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Texas % own 2FGA's blocked
	Kansas 3pt FG%
	Kansas 2pt FG%
	Kansas eFG%
	Texas OREB
	Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
	Texas PTS/Poss
	Texas 3pt FG%
	Texas % Poss STL by Opp
	Kansas FT%
	Texas TO rate
		Kansas FT Rate**

*************************************************************

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Texas will have below avg % of FG's assisted

Kansas plays faster tempo than Texas

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Adjustments - Rodrick Stewart not projected to play based on Self's postseason rotation. Collins to play 30 minutes (based on postseason trends). Robinson playing time reduced to 30 as a result of Collins' increase. Matt Hill out due to injury.

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	77
Texas	71

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	32	2	6	2	6	2	2	12	2	4	6	2	2	1	1
Cole Aldrich	7	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	0	0	1
Darnell Jackson	28	4	7	0	0	3	4	11	3	5	8	1	1	1	0
Darrell Arthur	27	5	10	0	1	2	3	12	3	4	7	1	2	0	1
Mario Chalmers	33	2	4	2	4	2	4	12	1	3	4	5	2	2	1
Russell Robinson	30	1	2	1	4	2	3	7	1	2	3	4	2	1	0
Sasha Kaun	13	2	4	0	0	2	3	6	2	2	4	0	1	0	1
Sherron Collins	30	3	5	2	5	2	2	14	1	2	3	3	2	1	0
TOTALS	200	20	40	7	20	16	22	77	14	24	38	16	12	6	5

Texas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
D.J. Augustin	39	4	8	2	5	5	6	19	1	2	3	5	3	1	0
A.J. Abrams	37	2	5	3	9	2	2	15	0	2	2	1	1	2	0
Damion James	33	3	8	1	2	2	4	11	3	7	10	1	2	1	1
Connor Atchley	29	2	4	1	3	1	1	8	2	3	5	1	1	1	2
Justin Mason	34	1	4	1	2	1	2	6	2	2	4	2	1	1	0
Gary Johnson	11	2	5	0	0	2	3	6	2	2	4	1	1	0	0
Alexis Wangmene	6	1	1	0	0	1	2	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	1
Dexter Pittman	5	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Clint Chapman	6	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	16	38	8	21	15	22	71	13	21	34	11	11	6	4

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 77-71
Tempo (# poss)	67
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 51-47%
TO Rate (lo better)	UT 18-16%	Remember UT's amazing at controlling the ball.
O-Reb%	KU 40-35%	Really? I'll believe this when I see it.
FT Rate	KU 27-25%	Unusual for KU to have edge here.
Four Factors Overall	Projected shooting advantage is barely padded by slight OREB% advantage for KU. None of these "feel" like shoe-ins for the Jayhawks.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Collins, Arthur/Chalmers/Rush Opp - Augustin, Abrams
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - James
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Jackson Opp - Atchley
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Collins, Kaun Opp - Johnson, Augustin
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Robinson, Arthur/Rush Opp - Atchley, James	Atchley and James are barely projected to be worse than their averages. In general, this game is projected for KU to look worse than UT as compared to each team's performance to date.