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Preview: Kansas vs Texas A&M (Big 12 Tournament)

Mar 15, 2008

Kansas vs Texas A&M (Big 12 Tournament - Kansas City, MO)

	Kansas	Texas A&M
Performance Indicators
Record	29-3	24-9
AP Rank	5	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	16
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	4	32
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength.)	8	41
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 10.5 Est. Projection: 70-59
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 10.7
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 11.4
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 71-59
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 16.8 94.2% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 12.1 Est. Projection: 71-59

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Darnell Jackson	7.03	138.82
Mario Chalmers	6.73	152.93
Brennan Bechard*	5.62	2.31
Cole Aldrich	5.44	36.70
Tyrel Reed*	5.21	14.08
Darrell Arthur	5.21	96.26
Sasha Kaun	4.96	69.10
Russell Robinson	4.85	107.57
Conner Teahan*	4.75	6.08
Brandon Rush	4.54	102.68
Rodrick Stewart	4.29	33.71
Sherron Collins	3.78	61.71
Jeremy Case*	3.59	9.64
Matt Kleinmann*	2.34	2.14
Chase Buford*	-3.89	-1.64
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.90	-3.36

* Rating not based on enough data.

Texas A&M

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Marshall Carrell*	5.82	0.80
Nathan Walkup*	5.20	17.71
DeAndre Jordan	5.15	80.34
Chinemelu Elonu	4.88	31.74
Denzel Bowles*	4.74	2.61
Josh Carter	4.13	89.73
B.J. Holmes*	3.84	15.43
Joseph Jones	3.82	70.08
Bryan Davis	3.82	64.59
Beau Muhlbach*	3.28	13.58
Dominique Kirk	3.05	71.58
Chris Chapman*	2.90	0.27
Derrek Lewis*	2.21	2.03
Donald Sloan	1.11	25.91
Derrick Roland	0.36	5.28
Andrew Darko*	-5.48	-1.13
Bryson Graham*	-8.68	-5.39
Shawn Schepel*	-11.51	-0.79

* Rating not based on enough data.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Texas A&M
Kansas TO rate
Texas A&M FT%
Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
Texas A&M % own 2FGA's blocked**
Texas A&M OREB**
	Texas A&M eFG%
	Texas A&M 2pt FG%
	Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
	Kansas 3pt FG%
	Texas A&M 3pt FG%
	Texas A&M PTS/Poss
	Texas A&M FT Rate
	Texas A&M % Poss STL by Opp
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Kansas eFG%
	Kansas 2pt FG%
	Kansas OREB
	Texas A&M TO rate
		Kansas FT%**
		Kansas FT Rate**

*************************************************************

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Texas A&M will have below avg % of FG's assisted

Kansas plays faster tempo than Texas A&M

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	75
Texas A&M	63

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	31	2	6	2	5	2	2	12	2	3	5	2	1	1	1
Cole Aldrich	7	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	0	0	1
Darnell Jackson	27	4	7	0	0	2	2	10	2	5	7	1	1	1	1
Darrell Arthur	26	5	10	0	1	2	3	12	3	4	7	1	2	0	1
Mario Chalmers	32	2	4	2	4	2	3	12	0	3	3	4	2	2	1
Rodrick Stewart	9	1	2	0	1	0	1	2	1	1	2	1	1	0	0
Russell Robinson	30	1	2	1	3	2	3	7	1	2	3	4	2	2	0
Sasha Kaun	13	2	4	0	0	2	3	6	2	2	4	0	1	0	1
Sherron Collins	25	2	4	2	4	1	1	11	0	1	1	2	1	1	0
TOTALS	200	20	41	7	18	14	19	75	12	23	35	15	11	7	6

Texas A&M
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Josh Carter	33	1	4	3	7	2	3	13	1	3	4	1	1	1	0
Joseph Jones	28	3	7	0	1	3	4	9	2	3	5	1	2	1	0
Donald Sloan	35	2	5	1	3	2	4	9	1	3	4	3	3	0	0
Dominique Kirk	35	1	3	1	4	2	3	7	1	3	4	3	2	1	0
Bryan Davis	25	3	6	0	0	2	4	8	2	3	5	1	3	1	1
DeAndre Jordan	24	3	4	0	0	2	4	8	2	4	6	1	2	0	1
Derrick Roland	13	1	3	1	3	1	1	6	1	2	3	1	1	0	0
Chinemelu Elonu	7	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
TOTALS	200	15	34	6	18	15	24	63	11	23	34	11	15	4	3

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 75-63
Tempo (# poss)	66
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 52-46%
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 23-17%
O-Reb%	KU 34-32%
FT Rate	TAM 29-24%
Four Factors Overall	KU's edge in shooting and turnovers is far more than TAM's expected slight FT advantage.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Arthur/Chalmers/Rush Opp - Carter, Jones/Sloan
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - Jordan
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Jackson Opp - Jordan
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Collins Opp - Roland, Jordan
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Arthur, Chalmers Opp - Kirk, Sloan