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See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page. You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.

Preview: Kansas vs North Carolina (NCAA Tournament)

Apr 4, 2008

Kansas vs North Carolina (NCAA Tournament Semifinal - San Antonio, TX)

	Kansas	North Carolina
Performance Indicators
Record	35-3	36-2
AP Rank	4	1
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	4
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	3	1
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers		Win by 3 Est. Projection: 82-79
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)		Win by 0.7
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 0.4
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 82-78 65% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 1.5 64.8% chance of victory (NOTE: Because UNC's postseason games were all in semi-home venues, only the last two counted in this analysis. The rest are the most recent road games in ACC regular season play)
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)		Win by 0.6 Est. Projection: 80-79

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Mario Chalmers	7.37	200.62
Darnell Jackson	6.44	145.40
Brennan Bechard*	5.68	1.97
Tyrel Reed*	5.65	13.51
Sasha Kaun	5.30	87.70
Darrell Arthur	5.20	118.85
Cole Aldrich*	5.04	36.24
Brandon Rush	4.89	135.95
Russell Robinson	4.62	118.33
Jeremy Case*	4.08	12.31
Rodrick Stewart (OUT)	3.96	27.95
Matt Kleinmann*	3.47	3.01
Sherron Collins	3.44	69.81
Conner Teahan*	2.77	3.35
Chase Buford*	-3.03	-1.08
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.84	-2.89

* Rating not based on enough data.

North Carolina

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Tyler Hansbrough	7.97	264.74
Danny Green	6.44	145.26
Will Graves*	6.08	29.56
Ty Lawson	5.54	115.19
J.B. Tanner*	4.56	3.51
Wayne Ellington	4.46	140.16
Alex Stepheson	3.84	54.02
Deon Thompson	3.35	72.16
Jack Wooten*	2.77	2.43
Bobby Frasor (OUT)	2.66	13.82
Marcus Ginyard	2.39	67.88
Mike Copeland*	2.18	5.85
Quentin Thomas	1.29	19.64
Surry Wood*	0.81	0.73
Patrick Moody*	0.62	0.54
Marc Campbell*	-1.68	-1.56
Greg Little*	-5.81	-2.32

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Hope to get to this before the game.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	North Carolina
Offense #2 - Defense #3 - Tempo #132 Usually win the all-important eFG% category (#5 own, #11 defense) Strong offensive rebounding (#22) and limit opp OREB% (#24) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#4) Great shooting from both 2FG (#6) and 3FG (#8) Dominate the BLK category (#8 limit own, #4 block opp) Rank #17 in STL% from opp Very few 3FGA as % of FGA (#284), but opp take a lot (#290 limit opp 3FGA) Very high % of FG's assisted (#45) One of the taller teams, ranking #43 in Effective Height Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 16) Mario Chalmers - #22 eFG%, #172 AST rate, #17 STL% Russell Robinson - #113 FT Rate, #48 STL% Darrell Arthur - #105 OREB%, #112 BLK% Darnell Jackson - #23 eFG%, #136 DREB%, #166 FT Rate Sasha Kaun - #178 OREB%, #49 BLK%	Offense #1 - Defense #19 - Tempo #9 Strong shooting (#42 eFG%), especially 2FG% (#43) Don't turn it over much (#47 TO Rate) Nation's best OREB%, and they keep opp low (#20 limit opp OREB%) One of best at limiting opp use of FT line (#11) while using it well (#49) Limit opp 3FG% (#48) 2nd lowest utilization of 3FG (as % of FGA), ranking #340 Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 16) Tyler Hansbrough - #80 OREB%, #146 DREB%, #36 FT Rate, #70 TO Rate Wayne Ellington - #140 TO Rate Danny Green - #161 BLK% Deon Thompson - #134 BLK% Ty Lawson - #35 AST%, #116 STL%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies most heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, UNC relies on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's in a freakishly extreme way, while its opponents rely heavily on 2FG's but hardly at all on FT's.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Rodrick Stewart (KU) and Bobby Frasor (UNC) both out due to injury.

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	81
North Carolina	82

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	33	3	6	3	7	2	2	17	2	3	5	2	2	1	1
Cole Aldrich	6	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Darnell Jackson	28	5	7	0	0	2	4	12	3	5	8	1	2	1	0
Darrell Arthur	28	6	11	0	0	2	3	14	3	4	7	1	2	1	2
Mario Chalmers	34	2	4	2	5	2	2	12	0	3	3	5	2	3	1
Russell Robinson	32	1	3	1	4	2	3	7	1	2	3	5	2	2	0
Sasha Kaun	12	3	5	0	0	2	3	8	2	2	4	0	1	1	2
Sherron Collins	27	2	5	1	4	1	2	8	0	2	2	3	2	1	0
TOTALS	200	23	43	7	20	14	20	81	12	23	35	17	14	10	7

North Carolina
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Tyler Hansbrough	36	5	12	0	0	8	11	18	4	6	10	1	2	1	0
Wayne Ellington	34	3	7	3	7	3	3	18	1	3	4	2	2	1	0
Danny Green	24	2	4	2	4	2	2	12	2	3	5	2	2	1	1
Ty Lawson	27	3	5	1	4	3	4	12	1	2	3	4	2	2	0
Deon Thompson	23	3	7	0	0	1	2	7	2	3	5	1	2	1	1
Marcus Ginyard	31	2	3	0	1	2	3	6	2	2	4	2	2	1	0
Alex Stepheson	10	1	3	0	0	1	2	3	2	3	5	0	1	0	1
Quentin Thomas	11	1	2	0	1	1	1	3	0	1	1	3	2	0	0
Will Graves	4	0	1	1	2	0	0	3	1	1	2	0	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	20	44	7	19	21	28	82	15	24	39	15	15	7	3

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	UNC 82-81
Tempo (# poss)	75
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 53-48%	Surprising, given that UNC usually gets so many putback opportunities and fastbreak chances.
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 20-19%	Neither team turns it over much usually.
O-Reb%	UNC 39-33%
FT Rate	UNC 33-22%	Probably the main reason UNC is projected to win.
Four Factors Overall	Better shots for KU, but UNC should be able to compensate with more FT's and second-chance points..
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Rush, Arthur Opp - Hansbrough/Ellington
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - Green
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Kaun Opp - Green
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Arthur Opp - Green, Stepheson
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Collins, Robinson Opp - Hansbrough, Thomas	Poor shooting projected for Collins and Robinson. "Psycho T" still projects to an 18-pt, 10-reb night, just not a good shooting percentage (42 eFG%).