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See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page.  You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.
 
Preview: Kansas vs Nebraska (Big 12 Tournament) Print E-mail
Mar 13, 2008

Kansas vs Nebraska (Big 12 Tournament - Kansas City, MO)

 KansasNebraska

Performance Indicators

  
Record28-3
18-11
AP Rank5
NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		1
32
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		4
58
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)

vs Kansas State (#13) W 88-74
@ Texas A&M (#17) W 72-55

vs Kansas State (#13) W 71-64
@ Texas A&M (#17) W 65-59
RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength)		8
97

Prediction Models

  
Vegas OddsmakersWin by 14
Est. Projection: 71-57 		 
Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings)		Win by 13.0
 
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)Win by 14.7 
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)

Win 72-57

 
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)		Win by 17.4
98.4% chance of victory 		 
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)

Win by 14.7
Est. Projection: 72-57

 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Mario Chalmers 6.78 148.14
Darnell Jackson 6.76 130.57
Brennan Bechard* 5.62 2.36
Cole Aldrich 5.48 37.37
Darrell Arthur 5.47 98.55
Tyrel Reed* 5.21 14.47
Russell Robinson 4.92 106.01
Sasha Kaun 4.92 66.02
Conner Teahan* 4.82 6.32
Brandon Rush 4.73 103.14
Rodrick Stewart 4.32 34.41
Sherron Collins 3.70 58.67
Jeremy Case* 3.57 9.81
Matt Kleinmann* 2.33 2.18
Chase Buford* -4.01 -1.73
Brad Witherspoon* -5.90 -3.43

 

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

Nebraska

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

  

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Aleks Maric 9.13 171.29
Chris Balham* 5.48 26.95
Ben Nelson* 4.17 2.63
Ryan Anderson 2.81 55.03
Paul Velander 1.80 12.92
Nick Krenk* 1.22 1.04
Ade Dagunduro 1.02 14.95
Andrew Wicklund* 0.89 0.46
Steve Harley 0.61 9.84
Cookie Miller 0.52 8.59
Sek Henry 0.09 1.39
Cole Salomon* -0.20 -0.35
Shang Ping -0.58 -2.66
Jay-R Strowbridge -1.38 -15.72

 

* Rating not based on enough data.


 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Nebraska

Offense #1 - Defense #1 - Tempo #78
Excellent shooting (#7 eFG%, #6 on 2FG% and #28 on 3FG%) and strong shooting eFG% defense (#12)
Rank #15 in STL pct and #46 in avoiding own TO
Strong offensive rebounding (#21) and limit opp OREB% (#14)
Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#4)
Dominate the BLK category (#8 limit own, #4 block opp)
Very low % of FGA's are 3FGA (#291) while opps very high (#257 lowest)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#46)

 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 6)

Mario Chalmers - #36 eFG%, #179 AST rate, #25 STL%
Russell Robinson - #82 FT Rate, #49 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #73 OREB%, #95 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #17 eFG%, #140 DREB%
Sasha Kaun - #152 OREB%, #36 BLK%

Offense #70 - Defense #19 - Tempo #297
Great at forcing TO's (#36), particularly STL (#18)
Excellent job of limiting opp OREB% (#37)
Keep opp off FT line (#38 FT Rate defense)
Give up very high 3FG% (#259 lowest) and high % of opp FGA are 3FG (#309 lowest)
Shut down opp 2FG% (#14)
 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 6)

Aleks Maric - #168 eFG%, #4 OREB%, #26 DREB%, #92 FT Rate, #85 BLK%
Cookie Miller - #132 AST Rate, #31 STL%

Scoring Distribution:

On offense, KU relies unusually heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, NU relies much more on 2FG's than 3FG's, while its opponents rely unusually heavily on 3FG's.

 

 

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

 

Projected Boxscore

 

Kansas 75                            
Nebraska 56                            
                               
Kansas                              
PLAYER MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Brandon Rush 30 2 5 3 5 2 2 15 1 4 5 2 2 1 1
Cole Aldrich 8 1 2 0 0 1 1 3 1 2 3 0 0 0 1
Darnell Jackson 27 3 6 0 0 2 3 8 2 5 7 1 1 1 1
Darrell Arthur 25 4 9 0 1 2 3 10 3 4 7 1 2 1 1
Mario Chalmers 31 2 3 2 4 2 3 12 0 3 3 4 2 2 1
Rodrick Stewart 10 1 2 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 0 0
Russell Robinson 30 1 2 1 3 2 3 7 1 2 3 4 2 2 0
Sasha Kaun 14 2 4 0 0 2 3 6 2 2 4 0 1 1 1
Sherron Collins 25 2 3 2 4 1 2 11 0 2 2 3 2 1 0
TOTALS 200 18 36 8 18 15 21 75 11 25 36 17 13 9 6
                               
Nebraska                              
PLAYER MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Aleks Maric 32 5 9 0 0 4 7 14 4 6 10 1 2 1 2
Steve Harley 29 2 6 1 2 2 3 9 1 2 3 1 2 1 0
Ryan Anderson 33 1 3 1 5 1 1 6 1 4 5 1 2 1 0
Ade Dagunduro 25 2 5 0 1 2 3 6 1 2 3 1 2 1 0
Sek Henry 25 1 3 1 2 1 2 6 1 2 3 1 2 1 0
Cookie Miller 31 1 3 0 2 1 1 3 0 2 2 3 3 2 0
Jay-R Strowbridge 12 1 2 1 2 1 1 6 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
Paul Velander 8 0 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Chris Balham 5 1 2 0 0 1 1 3 1 1 2 0 1 0 0
TOTALS 200 14 33 5 17 13 20 56 9 20 29 10 15 7 2

 

 

Projection Summary

 

 
Projection
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 75-56  
 Tempo (# poss)
 65 
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Rush, Chalmers

 Opp - Maric, Harley

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Rush

 Opp - Maric

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Rush

 Opp - Maric

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Rush, Kaun

 Opp - Strowbridge, Henry

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Arthur/Stewart

 Opp - Anderson, Miller

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sports and Numbers Projection

Kansas wins 75-56

(all prediction models included)