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Preview: Kansas vs Memphis (NCAA Tournament)

Apr 7, 2008

Kansas vs Memphis (NCAA Tournament Championship Game - San Antonio, TX)

	Kansas	Memphis
Performance Indicators
Record	36-3	38-1
AP Rank	4	2
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	2
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	3	2
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers		Win by 2 Est. Projection: 75-73
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 0.5
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 2.0
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 73-70 62% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 5.3 85.6% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 0.9 Est. Projection: 73-72

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Mario Chalmers	7.25	204.87
Darnell Jackson	6.81	156.51
Cole Aldrich	6.18	48.76
Brennan Bechard*	5.69	1.91
Tyrel Reed*	5.65	13.11
Brandon Rush	5.27	152.30
Darrell Arthur	5.07	121.65
Sasha Kaun	5.07	84.65
Russell Robinson	4.80	127.67
Rodrick Stewart (OUT)	3.95	27.12
Jeremy Case*	3.82	11.46
Matt Kleinmann*	3.49	2.95
Sherron Collins	3.32	71.06
Conner Teahan*	2.65	3.12
Chase Buford*	-2.86	-0.99
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.83	-2.82

* Rating not based on enough data.

Memphis

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Joey Dorsey	7.84	181.31
Chris Douglas-Roberts	6.02	165.08
Shawn Taggart	5.27	84.11
Robert Dozier	4.76	108.84
Derrick Rose	4.68	130.43
Doneal Mack	3.89	46.68
Jeff Robinson	3.79	23.94
Willie Kemp	3.77	51.28
Antonio Anderson	3.33	94.05
Chance McGrady*	1.61	1.76
Andre Allen (OUT)	0.26	3.35
Pierre Niles*	-1.86	-4.47
Hashim Bailey*	-3.04	-0.83

* Rating not based on enough data.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Memphis
Offense #2 - Defense #2 - Tempo #120 Usually win the all-important eFG% category (#5 own, #8 defense) Strong offensive rebounding (#24) and limit opp OREB% (#24) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#4) Great shooting from both 2FG (#6) and 3FG (#12) Dominate the BLK category (#8 limit own, #4 block opp) Rank #18 in STL% from opp Very few 3FGA as % of FGA (#285), but opp take a lot (#289 limit opp 3FGA) Very high % of FG's assisted (#46) One of the taller teams, ranking #43 in Effective Height Individual Player Highlights: (thru Apr 3) Mario Chalmers - #18 eFG%, #200 AST rate, #17 STL% Russell Robinson - #127 FT Rate, #46 STL% Darrell Arthur - #131 OREB%, #129 BLK% Darnell Jackson - #34 eFG%, #138 DREB%, #153 FT Rate Sasha Kaun - #143 OREB%, #160 TO Rate, #50 BLK%	Offense #4 - Defense #3 - Tempo #80 One of best at limiting opp eFG% (#4), including #7 in both 2FG% and 3FG% defense Hardly ever turn it over on offense (#8 TO Rate) Terrific rebounding on both ends (#18 OREB%, #30 limit opp OREB%) One of worst FT% in country (#329) Block lots of shots on defense (#8) Great at avoiding STL (#24) and at stealing from opp (#44) Opponents hardly ever take 3FG as % of FGA (#28 lowest) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Apr 3) Derrick Rose - #82 AST% Chris Douglas-Roberts - #91 eFG% Joey Dorsey - #13 OREB%, #25 DREB%, #68 BLK% Robert Dozier - #178 OREB%, #83 BLK% Shawn Taggart - #187 OREB%, #47 TO Rate, #142 BLK%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies most heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, UM relies somewhat less than average on FT's, while its opponents rely heavily on 2FG's at the strong expense of 3FG's.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Rodrick Stewart (KU) out due to injury. Andre Allen suspended for Memphis.

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	74
Memphis	71

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	33	2	6	2	6	2	2	12	2	4	6	2	2	1	1
Cole Aldrich	6	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Darnell Jackson	28	4	7	0	0	3	4	11	3	5	8	1	2	1	1
Darrell Arthur	28	5	10	0	0	2	3	12	3	5	8	1	2	1	1
Mario Chalmers	34	2	4	2	4	3	4	13	0	3	3	4	2	2	1
Russell Robinson	32	1	3	1	3	2	3	7	1	3	4	4	2	2	0
Sasha Kaun	12	3	5	0	0	2	3	8	2	3	5	0	1	0	1
Sherron Collins	27	2	5	1	4	1	2	8	0	2	2	2	2	1	0
TOTALS	200	20	42	6	17	16	22	74	12	27	39	14	14	8	6

Memphis
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Chris Douglas-Roberts	35	4	9	1	3	4	5	15	2	3	5	2	2	1	0
Derrick Rose	36	4	8	1	3	4	6	15	1	3	4	4	3	1	0
Antonio Anderson	36	1	3	1	4	2	3	7	1	3	4	3	2	1	0
Robert Dozier	31	3	7	0	1	2	4	8	3	4	7	1	2	1	1
Doneal Mack	9	1	1	2	6	1	1	9	1	1	2	1	1	1	0
Joey Dorsey	31	2	5	0	0	1	4	5	4	6	10	1	1	1	2
Shawn Taggart	12	2	4	0	1	1	2	5	2	3	5	0	1	1	1
Willie Kemp	10	0	1	2	4	1	1	7	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
TOTALS	200	17	38	7	22	16	26	71	14	24	38	13	13	8	4

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 74-71
Tempo (# poss)	71
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 49-46%	Suggests a somewhat uglier looking game than recent performances by both teams.
TO Rate (lo better)	UM 20-18%	Often causes KU problems when they have more TO's, but neither team has too high a percent here.
O-Reb%	UM 34-33%	Both teams are prolific on both ends. Should be a great battle.
FT Rate	Tie at 27%	More attempts for UM though, and if they shoot around the same percent as they have so far in the Tourney, it could actually be an advantage.
Four Factors Overall	Everything is pretty tight, but the projection is that KU will shoot better, and that will be more important than the slight gains for UM in OREB% and TO Rate. Realistically, it's anybody's game though.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Chalmers, Arthur/Rush Opp - Douglas-Roberts/Rose
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - Dorsey
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Kaun Opp - Kemp
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Arthur Opp - Kemp, Taggart
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Collins, Rush Opp - Dorsey, Anderson	Notice that Dorsey is projected to have the highest cPSAN impact, but still he's projected to struggle compared to his amazing season so far.