Sports and Numbers

Kansas vs Davidson (NCAA Tournament - Detroit, MI)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

The story of the day will most likely be centered around Stephen Curry, and he does deserve the attention.  He has nearly single-handedly carried the underdog Wildcats into the Elite Eight.  It's remarkable, really, since Curry uses an eye-popping 31% of his team's possessions and takes over 35% of the shots while he's on the floor, and yet he shoots over 61 eFG% as a guard.  That includes 44% from behind the arc.  Before the Tournament, one could argue that he simply played poor competition for most of the season, but now he's done it to Georgetown and Wisconsin.  Can he continue against Kansas?  Most likely, yes, but whether his team can win is another issue.  Curry also keeps his turnovers very low for someone who uses so many possessions, and he even adds in a nice defensive rebounding boost for his 6-2 size.

Curry will need all the help he can get.  This season, the other two major contributors have been Jason Richards and Andrew Lovedale.  Richards is the guy who creates with his passing but also shoots a healthy 51 eFG% while leading the team in minutes.  Lovedale is a big guy who doesn't shoot it a bunch but does a great job on the defensive glass and swats plenty of opponents' shots.

Neither Richards nor Lovedale has been as efficient as Stephen Rossiter though.  Rossiter doesn't play much, but he shoots over 60 eFG% and uses the free throw line to his advantage.  Boris Meno and Max Paulhus Gosselin have contributed about the same as Rossiter but not with as good an efficiency level.  Meno is a rebounder and shotblocker extraordinaire.  Gosselin shoots a ghastly 39 eFG% but barely turns it over and forces lots of steals from the opponent.

Kansas counters with a balanced and extremely talented lineup.  In the backcourt, it's been Mario Chalmers whose presence has been most impactful statistically.  Chalmers is shooting an uncanny 64 eFG%, including 48% from behind the arc.  Combine that with a decent knack of getting to the FT line, solid AST% and one of the nation's best STL%, and you've got yourself a superstar.  Brandon Rush and Russell Robinson have also been strong contributors.  Rush has come on particularly of late and typically performs best against strong competition.

In the frontcourt, it's been a seesaw battle between Darnell Jackson and Darrell Arthur all season for statistical superiority.  Overall, Jackson sports the highest numbers, with the important caveat that his performance takes a significant downturn against stronger opposition.  Arthur's best games have been against the best teams, but he has occasionally struggled in big games as well.

Sixth man, Sherron Collins, has had stretches of brilliance, but his overall numbers still leave something to be desired.  Like Robinson, he could definitely stand to reduce his turnover rate.  Collins is also suffering from a bout of tonsillitis, so he may be a step slow this game.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Rodrick Stewart (KU) to play 0 minutes, given Self's rotation pattern in the postseason.

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary