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Preview: Kansas State at Kansas |
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Feb 29, 2008 |
Kansas State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)| | Kansas | Kansas State
| Performance Indicators
| | | | Record | 25-3
(Home: 17-0)
| 18-9
(Road: 2-6)
| | AP Rank | 6
| NR
(32nd most votes)
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 1
| 12
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 6
| 28 | Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | @ Southern California (#21) W 59-55
vs Arizona (#24) W 76-72 (OT) | vs Kansas (#1) W 84-75
vs Texas A&M (#14) W 75-54 | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .) | Current: 9 Forecast: 8 | Current: 43 Forecast: 43 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 13
Est. Projection: 81-68 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by TBD
| | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 12.2 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 80-69
85% chance of victory
| | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.) | Win by 12.4
95.6% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7) | Win by 12.1
Est. Projection: 80-68 | |
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for K-State | | Kansas 3pt FG% | | | | K-State eFG%** | | | | K-State % own 2FGA's blocked** | | | | K-State 3pt FG% | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked** | | | | | K-State FT% | | | K-State 2pt FG%** | | | | K-State % Poss STL by Opp** | | | | | Kansas FT Rate | | | | K-State TO rate | | | | K-State FT Rate | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Kansas eFG% | | | | Kansas TO rate | | | | Kansas OREB | | | | K-State PTS/Poss | | | | Kansas 2pt FG% | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss | | | | K-State OREB | | | | | Kansas FT%** | ************************************************************* | Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted | | Expect uptempo game |
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Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 84 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas State | 69 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brandon Rush | 30 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Cole Aldrich | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Darnell Jackson | 27 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Darrell Arthur | 25 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | Jeremy Case | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Mario Chalmers | 31 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | | Rodrick Stewart | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Russell Robinson | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | | Sasha Kaun | 14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 23 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 21 | 42 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 29 | 84 | 12 | 28 | 40 | 19 | 16 | 10 | 7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas State | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Michael Beasley | 36 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Bill Walker | 31 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Jacob Pullen | 28 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Clent Stewart | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Blake Young | 33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Andre Gilbert | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Ron Anderson | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Darren Kent | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Chris Merriewether | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 16 | 40 | 7 | 22 | 16 | 23 | 69 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 12 | 18 | 7 | 3 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 84-69 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 76 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 52-43% | | | TO Rate (lo better) | KU 24-21% | | | O-Reb% | Tie at 35%
| KSU is tough on the glass, so this may be tough to live up to for KU. | | FT Rate | KU 34-26% | | Four Factors Overall
| KU's huge edge in eFG% is aided by a moderate advantage in FT attempts to project lopsided victory for KU. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Chalmers, Arthur Opp - Beasley, Walker
| | Highest cPSAN
(game impact)
| KU - Chalmers Opp - Beasley | | Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)
| KU - Kaun Opp - Beasley | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Kaun, Collins Opp - Gilbert, Pullen
| Collins' still recovering knee may not warrant this. | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Rush, Stewart Opp - Beasley, Kent
| Beasley is still projected to have a monster game, just not as huge as usual for him. |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 84-69(all prediction models included) |
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | K-State's offensive rebounding is not only highly correlated with their offensive efficiency, but interestingly with their defensive efficiency. It is obviously key for KSU to do well on the offensive glass. Surprisingly, the numbers project a small advantage in OREB% for Kansas, so this will be very interesting to watch. Incidentally, the highest level allowed by KU on the season has been 44.4% against, you guessed it, K-State. | K-State to grab at least 38% of available OREB
| | | In almost every game that KU has turned the ball over at least 20% of possessions, it has struggled or lost. TO% is highly correlated to both KU's offense and KSU's defense.
| KU to minimize own TO's to no more than 19% of possessions | | | | K-State is projected to make only 7-of-22 from 3FG. If they must make three more of those, that's nine points to put them in range where an offensive rebounding advantage and fouls going their way could secure victory. But KSU's performance from 3FG is crucial for keeping them in the game. | KSU to shoot at least 36% from 3FG.
| | | | Scoring players for each team must stay on the court and out of foul trouble in what could be a very heated battle. | KSU - Beasley, Walker KU - Arthur, Rush, Chalmers All players above to have 3 or fewer fouls or play at least 28 minutes. | | |
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