Sports and Numbers

Kansas at Texas (Austin, TX)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

The first thing that stands out in these ratings is the significant discrepancy between D.J. Augustin's numbers and the general perception of his abilities.  Augustin is considered perhaps the best point guard in the country by many media experts and fans.  In fact, even using Dean Oliver's ratings from Ken Pomeroy's site, Augustin has the third highest offensive rating in the country for players who use at least 28% of possessions while on the floor.  So, what gives?  For one, Oliver's ratings are specific to offensive performance and do not take into account that Texas hasn't been an elite defensive team.  Augustin's 37 minutes per game should be factored into that part of the equation.  Second, Augustin makes about 51 eFG% of his shots, which doesn't translate to that much of a positive on a team with such offensive efficiency as Texas.  When a player misses a shot for Texas, it is much more severly penalized than for most teams because the likely end of a UT possession means more points "lost" than almost any other team.  (Incidentally, it's even worse for KU players because they have the #1 offense in the country, but this analysis is specific to Augustin.)  So, once it is established that Augustin's shooting is a positive but not a huge positive, we are left with his tremendous passing (AST) and ability to use the FT line.  The liabilities in rebounding along with only an average rate of turnovers yields the kind of ratings above.  In fact, his net positive contributions lag behind Connor Atchley, Damion James and A.J. Abrams.  It doesn't make intuitive sense to those who watch the game and see Augustin work his magic, but in the end, missed shots do result in lost possessions and cannot be ignored.

The most efficient player for the Longhorns has been Atchley, who has shot 66.5 eFG% with decent offensive rebounding, low TO rate and nice shot-blocking skills.  He could really cause some matchup problems for KU big guys who may not be as comfortable defending around the perimeter (Atchley shoots over 50% from 3FG).  James has been a rock-solid rebounder (on both sides) and shot-blocker while averaging a double-double this season.  Meanwhile, Abrams is up to his usual hot shooting.  He's shot over 56 eFG%, with over half of his shots coming from three-point land.  His shooter role allows him to avoid TO such that his TO rate was the 14th-lowest in the country as of Feb 3.

Justin Mason plays well over 30 minutes per game but clearly hasn't been an offensive contributor in the traditional sense.  His low possession usage (14%) suggests that his duties mostly involve setting up others and doing the little things.  The highly-regarded freshman, Gary Johnson, finally got clearance to play around the New Year.  He is just now starting to get significant minutes, including 34 minutes in the overtime victory at Iowa State this past weekend in which he had 15 PTS and 9 REB.  Overall this season, he hasn't shot well but has been a solid offensive rebounder and particularly adept at utilizing the FT stripe.  Don't be fooled by the negative ratings, since he is really quite early in his career and could begin to show his true potential soon.

With all the focus on Augustin, it may surprise people that so much more of the net positive contributions for Texas have come from its frontcourt players (Atchley, James) than its backcourt (Abrams, Augustin).  It's a situation the Jayhawks are quite familiar with, since going into this season it was expected that Chalmers, Collins, Rush and Robinson would be dominating games in the backcourt.  Instead, it has been the emergence of Darnell Jackson and the scoring prowess of Darrell Arthur, backed up by the efficient play of Sasha Kaun and Cole Aldrich that has seized the attention of many.  KU's backcourt has not been disappointing, mind you.  KU is just solid all around and can beat teams from the inside or outside.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual adjustments:

• Gary Johnson to play 26 minutes.  Automatic projection had him playing 13 minutes, but the average for his last 3 games is better indicator as he eases into regular lineup. 

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary