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Preview: Kansas at Texas A&M |
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Mar 8, 2008 |
Kansas at Texas A&M (College Station, TX)| | Kansas | Texas A&M
| Performance Indicators
| | | | Record | 27-3
(Road: 7-3)
| 22-8
(Home: 16-3)
| | AP Rank | 5
| NR
(38th most votes)
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 1
| 18
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 6
| 34
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Kansas State (#13) W 88-74
vs Arizona (#21) W 76-72 (OT) | vs Texas (#10) W 80-63
vs Ohio State (#30) W 70-47 | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .) | Current: 9 Forecast: 7 | Current: 43 Forecast: 43 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 5
Est. Projection: 71-65 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by 4.1
| | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 5.2 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 70-63
76% chance of victory
| | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.) | Win by 3.8
63.7% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7) | Win by 4.8
Est. Projection: 70-65 | |
Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com) | Kansas | Texas A&M
| Offense #1 - Defense #1 - Tempo #81
Excellent shooting (#5 eFG%, #6 on 2FG% and #25 on 3FG%) and strong shooting eFG% defense (#14)
Rank #11 in STL pct and #41 in avoiding own TO
Strong offensive rebounding (#21) and limit opp OREB% (#17)
Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#4)
Dominate the BLK category (#6 limit own, #4 block opp)
Very low % of FGA's are 3FGA (#289) while opps very high (#255 lowest)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#43) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 6) Mario Chalmers - #36 eFG%, #179 AST rate, #25 STL%
Russell Robinson - #82 FT Rate, #49 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #73 OREB%, #95 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #17 eFG%, #140 DREB%
Sasha Kaun - #152 OREB%, #36 BLK%
| Offense #39 - Defense #10 - Tempo #260
Excellent eFG% defense (#12), particularly 2FG% defense (#5)
Although avoid own TO's (#48), rarely force opp TO's (#322)
Excellent at limiting opp OREB% (#11)
Keep opp off FT line (#19 FT Rate defense)
Terrible FT% (#314)
Rarely get ball stolen (#18) but rarely STL it back (#324)
Not many 3FGA's from either team (#282 % of FGA's that are 3FGA, #65 limit opp)
Limit opp % of FG's assisted (#30) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 6) Josh Carter - #7 TO Rate
Joseph Jones - #200 OREB%, #117 TO Rate
Bryan Davis - #191 BLK%
DeAndre Jordan - #160 OREB%, #68 DREB%, #102 BLK% | Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies most heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely most heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, TAM relies much more on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents rely much less than usual on FT's. |
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Texas A&M | | Kansas TO rate** | | | | Texas A&M FT% | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Texas A&M % own 2FGA's blocked** | | | | Kansas 3pt FG%** | | | | | Texas A&M OREB | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | Texas A&M eFG% | | | | Texas A&M 3pt FG% | | | | Texas A&M FT Rate | | | | Texas A&M 2pt FG% | | | | Texas A&M PTS/Poss | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss | | | | Kansas eFG% | | | | Texas A&M % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Kansas 2pt FG% | | | | Kansas OREB | | | | Texas A&M TO rate | | | | Kansas FT% | | | | | Kansas FT Rate** | ************************************************************* | Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Texas A&M will have below avg % of FG's assisted | | Kansas plays faster tempo than Texas A&M |
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Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 72 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Texas A&M | 65 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brandon Rush | 31 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Cole Aldrich | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | | Darnell Jackson | 28 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Darrell Arthur | 26 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | | Mario Chalmers | 32 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | Rodrick Stewart | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Russell Robinson | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | Sasha Kaun | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 19 | 41 | 7 | 18 | 13 | 18 | 72 | 11 | 25 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Texas A&M | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Josh Carter | 33 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Joseph Jones | 28 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Donald Sloan | 34 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | DeAndre Jordan | 25 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | | Bryan Davis | 25 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Dominique Kirk | 35 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Derrick Roland | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Chinemelu Elonu | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 16 | 36 | 6 | 18 | 15 | 24 | 65 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 3 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 72-65 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 67 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 50-46% | Given TAM's impressive eFG% defense, KU's shooting percentage could fall short. | | TO Rate (lo better) | KU 21-16% | | | O-Reb% | Tie at 31%
| Winner of this battle could be the victor. | | FT Rate | TAM 28-22% | | Four Factors Overall
| KU's modest edge in eFG% and OREB% won't be offset by a similar edge in FT attempts, since TAM struggles at the line. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Chalmers, Collins/Rush Opp - Carter, Jones/Sloan | | Highest cPSAN
(game impact)
| KU - Chalmers Opp - Carter | | Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)
| KU - Jackson Opp - Carter | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Collins, Jackson Opp - Carter, Sloan | None of the TAM players are projected to be much over their averages. | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Arthur, Rush Opp - Jones, Kirk
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Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 72-65(not all prediction models included) |
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | The only one of the four factors that is significantly correlated mutually for offense and defense for each team is eFG%. Simply put, this game could well be decided by which team just shoots a better eFG%. Shot selection and easy opportunities (fast breaks) would help. | Either team to have a 5% edge in eFG% | | | | A peculiar stat: TAM's offense is highly correlated to its opponents' offensive rebounding percentage. In ten road games, KU has had OREB% of at least 35% eight times. Of the two games it didn't, it still had a higher OREB% than the opponent in one of them. This may not bode well for TAM's offensive efficiency. | TAM to limit KU OREB% to 32% or lower | | | | Sherron Collins has re-emerged as a powerful weapon for the Jayhawks. When he is active on offense and limits his turnovers, things seem to go KU's way. | Collins to play at least 25 MIN, shoot at least 55 eFG% and have no more than 2 TO.
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