Sports and Numbers

Kansas at Southern California (Los Angeles, CA)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

The Trojans are clearly O.J. Mayo's team.  But the statistical ratings so far indicate he's not been the most efficient.  Mayo shoots an impressive 56.9 eFG%, with twice as many attempts as the next-leading shot taker.  His biggest flaw is that he turns it over 4.4 times per game.  That basically negates about 4 or 5 possessions a game for USC, and it's enough to turn superstar ratings into solid ratings.  Nevertheless, this game will largely hinge on whether Mayo brings his "A" game or not, mostly his TO's and eFG%.

Three other players join Mayo to form the group of four key contributors for USC.  Davon Jefferson is a 6-8 freshman forward who missed the first three games but has come alive since his return.  He shoots a sensational 68 eFG% (all 2FG's) and is only beginning to play the real minutes he's capable of playing.  Daniel Hackett not only sets up his teammates (5 AST) but has sizzled from the field (59.5 eFG% - 60% 3FG).  Taj Gibson leads the team in rebounds per game (8.4) but does so at the expense of too many fouls.  He hasn't shot all that well either (48.1 eFG%).

Dwight Lewis is the other starter, but he hasn't had the numbers yet this season.  He's a respectable 50 eFG% shooter but struggles mightily from behind the arc (29%).  He also doesn't do much else that shows up in the boxscore.  It is unclear whether Austin or Simmons will be available for this game, although Simmons doesn't play many minutes, and Austin didn't register much of anything in his 18-minute performance this season.

It's a more balanced picture for the Jayhawks.  Six Jayhawks sport efficiencies over 4.00, and one of those who doesn't is projected to be a 1st-round draft pick (Arthur).  Most every player shoots well except for Kaun and Aldrich.  Nagging tendinitis for Robinson could spell further struggles, but the return of the freshman guard Reed should help.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Projected Boxscore

(Not enough game data for accuracy)

Projected Four Factor Performance

• eFG% - Advantage KU 53-51%.
• TURNOVERS - Advantage KU 26-22%
• OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Advantage USC 30-27%
• FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Advantage USC 25-19%
  
• OVERALL - Fortunately for KU, their advantages fall in the two more important categories (eFG% and TO rate) and are just enough to offset the expected advantages for USC in OREB% and FT Rate.  TO Rate is the slightly bigger margin maker for KU.

Player Ratings Projections