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Preview: Kansas at Oklahoma State

Feb 23, 2008

Kansas at Oklahoma State (Stillwater, OK)

	Kansas	Oklahoma State
Performance Indicators
Record	24-2 (Road: 6-2)	13-12 (Home: 11-3)
AP Rank	4	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	58
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	4	83
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Arizona (#23) W 76-72 (OT) @ Southern California (#25) W 59-55	@ Texas A&M (#19) W 59-54 vs Baylor (#41) W 93-83
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .)	Current: 6 Forecast: 5	Current: 100 Forecast: 105
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 11 Est. Projection: 75-64
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 11.2
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 13.0
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 76-63 90% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 5.0 84.3% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 10.2 Est. Projection: 74-64

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Oklahoma State
Offense #2 - Defense #2 - Tempo #69 Excellent shooting (#4 eFG%, #4 on 2FG%) and strong shooting eFG% defense (#18) Rank #12 in forcing STL, while ranking #24 in avoiding own TO Strong offensive rebounding (#48) and stronger at limiting opp OREB% (#26) Limit opponents' use of FT line (#47) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#8) Dominate the BLK category (#6 limit own, #4 block opp) Very few 3FGA as % of total FGA (#287) Very high % of FG's assisted (#32) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 17) Mario Chalmers - #31 eFG%, #149 AST rate, #21 STL% Russell Robinson - #96 FT Rate, #56 STL% Darrell Arthur - #112 OREB%, #72 BLK% Darnell Jackson - #17 eFG%, #183 DREB% Sasha Kaun - #200 OREB%, #49 BLK%	Offense #82 - Defense #46 - Tempo #176 Great at forcing TO (#29), including #33 at STL% Terrible at keeping opp off FT line (#316 FT Rate defense) Extremely low % of FG's assisted (#323), while opp have very high % (#7) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 17) Marcus Dove - #151 STL% Byron Eaton - #41 FT Rate, #31 STL% Ibrahima Thomas - #196 DREB%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, OSU relies more on FT's and less on 2FG's, while its opponents rely unusually heavily on FT's and less so on 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State % own 2FGA's blocked**
Oklahoma State % Poss STL by Opp**
Oklahoma State OREB**
Kansas FT Rate
Kansas FT%
Oklahoma State eFG%**
Kansas OREB**
Kansas eFG%**
Kansas 2pt FG%**
Oklahoma State 2pt FG%**
Oklahoma State TO rate
	Oklahoma State 3pt FG%
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**
	Kansas 3pt FG%
	Oklahoma State PTS/Poss
	Oklahoma State FT%
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Oklahoma State FT Rate
	Kansas TO rate
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp

*************************************************************

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Oklahoma State will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Oklahoma State will have below avg % of FG's assisted

Expect average-paced game

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Brown removed from projections as he has been out due to injury.

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	80
Oklahoma State	64

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	28	2	4	2	4	2	3	12	1	4	5	2	2	1	1
Cole Aldrich	7	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Darnell Jackson	25	4	6	0	0	4	5	12	2	5	7	1	2	1	1
Darrell Arthur	24	5	9	0	0	3	5	13	3	4	7	0	2	1	2
Jeremy Case	4	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Mario Chalmers	30	2	3	1	3	4	5	11	0	3	3	3	2	3	1
Rodrick Stewart	10	1	2	0	1	1	2	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	0
Russell Robinson	28	1	2	1	3	3	4	8	1	2	3	3	3	2	0
Sasha Kaun	14	2	4	0	0	3	4	7	2	2	4	0	1	1	1
Sherron Collins	24	2	4	1	3	1	2	8	0	2	2	2	2	1	0
Tyrel Reed	6	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	20	37	6	16	22	31	80	11	26	37	14	16	11	7

Oklahoma State
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
James Anderson	36	2	4	2	6	3	4	13	2	2	4	1	3	1	1
Byron Eaton	32	2	5	1	3	4	6	11	1	2	3	3	2	2	0
Terrel Harris	35	2	6	1	3	3	3	10	1	3	4	1	3	2	0
Obi Muonelo	28	2	4	2	5	1	2	11	1	3	4	2	3	1	0
Marcus Dove	38	3	6	1	1	2	3	11	2	4	6	1	2	2	1
Ibrahima Thomas	14	2	4	0	1	1	2	5	2	2	4	0	1	0	0
Martavius Adams	10	1	3	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Nick Sidorakis	7	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
TOTALS	200	14	33	7	20	15	21	64	10	18	28	9	16	8	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 80-64
Tempo (# poss)	70
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 55-46%
TO Rate (lo better)	Tie 23%
O-Reb%	KU 38-28%
FT Rate	KU 42-28%
Four Factors Overall	KU will shoot much better from the field and get many more opportunities to score from the FT line. No advantages are projected for OSU except a slightly better FT%.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Arthur, Jackson/Rush Opp - Anderson, Dove/Eaton/Muonelo
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - Dove
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Jackson Opp - Dove
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Arthur Opp - Dove, Muonelo
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Stewart, Collins Opp - Adams, Anderson