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Preview: Kansas at Nebraska

Jan 12, 2008

Kansas at Nebraska (Lincoln, NE)

	Kansas	Nebraska
Prediction Models (some models listed exclusively at Phog.net)
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 9.5 Est. Projection: 71-61
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 9.3
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7 - all subject to availability)	Win by 9.1 Est. Projection: 68-59

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Player ratings and comprehensive player analysis for this game were provided exclusively for Phog.net.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

The bottom line here is that KU is loaded and balanced, while Nebraska has relied mostly on Maric's star performances and pretty solid efforts from Anderson and Dagunduro. The rest of NU's team will be severely outmanned.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Nebraska
Offense #9 - Defense #2 - Tempo #78 Excellent shooting (#3 eFG%, #3 on 2FG%) and strong shooting eFG% defense (#45) Rank #4 in forcing TO's, including #2 in STL pct, all while ranking #31 in avoiding own TO Strong offensive rebounding (#46) Poor use of FT line (#251 FT Rate) but limit opponents' use of FT line (#44) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#8) Terrible FT% (#282) Dominate the BLK category (#4 limit own, #3 block opp) Very high % of FG's assisted (#39) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1) Mario Chalmers - #11 eFG%, #187 AST rate, #5 STL% Russell Robinson - #21 STL% Darrell Arthur - #85 BLK% Darnell Jackson - #59 OREB% Sasha Kaun - #25 BLK% Brandon Rush - #103 TO rate (good)	Offense #85 - Defense #14 - Tempo #305 Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#27 own, #9 defense) Rank #14 in forcing TO's (#18 in STL%) Limit opp OREB% (#33) Keep opp off FT line (#32 FT Rate defense) Give up extremely high 3FG% (#268) Dominate the 2FG% category (#18 own, #1 limit opp) Very high % of FG's assisted (#32) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1) Ryan Anderson - #155 eFG% Ade Dagunduro - #193 eFG% Aleks Maric - #152 eFG%, #9 OREB%, #126 DREB%, #66 FT Rate, #29 BLK% Cookie Miller - #85 AST Rate, #24 STL% Steve Harley - #123 STL%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, NU relies more on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while more than ANY other team, opponents rely on 3FG's, while opp share of 2FG's is less than ALL BUT ONE team. Basically, 3FG's reign supreme for NU opponents.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Nebraska
Kansas 3pt FG%
Nebraska % Poss STL by Opp**
Nebraska FT%**
Nebraska TO rate**
	Nebraska % own 2FGA's blocked
	Nebraska PTS/Poss
	Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
	Nebraska OREB
	Nebraska FT Rate
	Nebraska 2pt FG%
	Kansas eFG%
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Kansas 2pt FG%
	Kansas OREB
	Kansas TO rate
	Nebraska eFG%
	Nebraska 3pt FG%
		Kansas % Poss STL by Opp**
	Kansas FT%
		Kansas FT Rate**

*************************************************************

Nebraska will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Kansas plays faster tempo than Nebraska

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	66
Nebraska	59

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	24	2	5	2	4	1	2	11	1	2	3	1	1	1	1
Cole Aldrich	9	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Darnell Jackson	22	3	6	0	0	2	3	8	3	3	6	1	2	1	1
Darrell Arthur	23	3	8	0	1	2	3	8	2	3	5	0	2	1	1
Jeremy Case	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Mario Chalmers	27	1	3	2	4	1	2	9	0	2	2	3	2	3	0
Rodrick Stewart	16	1	2	0	1	1	1	3	2	1	3	1	1	1	0
Russell Robinson	27	1	1	1	3	2	2	7	1	1	2	3	2	2	0
Sasha Kaun	17	2	3	0	0	2	4	6	2	2	4	0	1	1	1
Sherron Collins	21	1	3	2	4	1	1	9	0	2	2	2	2	1	0
Tyrel Reed	10	0	1	1	2	0	0	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	15	35	8	19	12	19	66	12	19	31	13	14	11	5

Nebraska
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Aleks Maric	27	4	8	0	0	3	5	11	3	5	8	1	3	1	1
Ade Dagunduro	27	3	5	1	2	2	3	11	1	3	4	2	3	1	0
Ryan Anderson	28	1	3	2	3	1	1	9	1	4	5	1	1	1	0
Steve Harley	22	1	4	0	1	2	3	4	1	2	3	1	2	1	0
Jay-R Strowbridge	21	1	2	1	3	1	1	6	0	1	1	2	2	0	0
Cookie Miller	24	1	3	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	2	4	3	2	0
Sek Henry	21	1	2	1	2	1	1	6	0	3	3	1	2	1	0
Shang Ping	14	1	2	0	1	1	2	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	1
Paul Velander	13	0	0	1	3	0	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Chris Balham	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
TOTALS	200	14	30	6	15	13	19	59	7	22	29	13	18	8	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 66-59
Tempo (# poss)	64	Would tie for 2nd slowest game KU has played this season
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	NU 51-50%	NU has been very strong in eFG% category, although against a much weaker schedule. The initial raw projection had this essentially a tie, but adjustments made to player stats forced this slightly in NU's favor.
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 28-22%
O-Reb%	KU 35-27%
FT Rate	NU 29-22%
Four Factors Overall	KU's edge in TO and OREB should be enough to make up for even battles in eFG% and FT.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Rush, Chalmers/Collins Opp - Maric, Dagunduro
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Robinson Opp - Anderson	Very interesting to see Robinson projected as the most impactful KU player. Looks like it's mostly because the regular KU stars aren't projected to play as efficiently as usual.
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Kaun Opp - Anderson	Same story for Kaun as for Robinson above. Looks like Maric might have a slightly less than stellar day as KU might force him into TO's and only 50 eFG%.
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Robinson, Kaun Opp - Henry, Anderson	Projection for Anderson to shoot 2-of-3 behind arc, but one would figure he'd shoot much more than that.
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Arthur, Chalmers Opp - Harley, Maric	Still, Maric rates out to +5.60 efficiency in this projection, just that it's well below his season avg.