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See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page. You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.

Preview: Kansas at Missouri

Jan 17, 2008

Kansas at Missouri (Columbia, MO)

	Kansas	Missouri
Performance Indicators
Record	17-0	11-6
AP Rank	3	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	26
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	3	44
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Arizona (#22) W 76-72 (OT) vs Oklahoma (#28) W 85-55	vs Texas (#16) W 97-84 vs Maryland (#53) W 84-70
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .)	Current: 7 Forecast: 5	Current: 84 Forecast: 53
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by TBD Est. Projection: TBD
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by TBD
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 6.6
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 81-71 83% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 11.4 97.8% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 9.9 Est. Projection: 81-71

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	12.66	14.14
Mario Chalmers	7.75	87.80
Darnell Jackson	7.58	77.06
Cole Aldrich	5.89	22.89
Brandon Rush	5.64	56.86
Sasha Kaun	5.40	40.79
Tyrel Reed	4.81	12.72
Darrell Arthur	4.38	43.65
Russell Robinson	4.17	48.15
Jeremy Case*	4.14	9.75
Rodrick Stewart	3.51	22.66
Brennan Bechard*	3.48	1.24
Sherron Collins	2.51	16.55
Matt Kleinmann*	2.20	1.39
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.77	-2.01
Chase Buford*	-13.26	-4.87

* Rating not based on enough data.

Missouri

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Nick Berardini*	15.44	4.50
DeMarre Carroll	6.47	72.47
Justin Safford*	6.10	12.43
Leo Lyons	4.46	39.97
Stefhon Hannah	3.54	43.79
Vaidotas Volkus*	2.06	4.96
Matt Lawrence	1.70	18.36
Keon Lawrence	1.29	15.90
Jason Horton	1.27	10.93
Marshall Brown	1.19	7.23
J.T. Tiller	0.55	4.08
Darryl Butterfield	0.31	2.19
Michael Anderson Jr.*	-2.41	-1.66

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Skipped due to time constraints. (Out of town)

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Missouri
Exclusive for Phog.net preview for this game.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Missouri
Kansas 2pt FG%**
Missouri FT Rate**
Kansas OREB
Missouri % own 2FGA's blocked**
Missouri FT%**
Missouri OREB**
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**
	Kansas eFG%
	Kansas FT%
	Missouri eFG%
	Missouri % Poss STL by Opp
	Missouri PTS/Poss
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Missouri 2pt FG%
	Missouri TO rate
	Kansas TO rate
	Missouri 3pt FG%
	Kansas FT Rate
	Kansas 3pt FG%
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp

*************************************************************

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Missouri will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Missouri will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Expect uptempo game

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	82
Missouri	69

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	25	2	5	1	4	2	2	9	1	4	5	1	2	1	1
Cole Aldrich	9	1	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	3	4	0	1	0	1
Darnell Jackson	23	5	7	0	0	3	4	13	3	5	8	1	2	1	1
Darrell Arthur	23	6	10	0	1	2	4	14	2	4	6	1	3	1	2
Jeremy Case	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Mario Chalmers	28	2	4	1	4	2	3	9	0	3	3	4	2	3	0
Rodrick Stewart	15	2	3	0	1	1	2	5	2	2	4	2	1	1	0
Russell Robinson	26	1	1	1	3	2	3	7	1	2	3	3	3	2	0
Sasha Kaun	17	3	4	0	0	3	5	9	2	3	5	0	1	1	2
Sherron Collins	22	2	4	1	4	1	2	8	0	2	2	2	2	1	0
Tyrel Reed	9	1	1	1	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	25	41	5	19	17	26	82	12	28	40	16	17	11	7

Missouri
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
DeMarre Carroll	26	4	6	0	1	3	5	11	3	4	7	1	2	1	0
Stefhon Hannah	29	2	5	2	6	2	3	12	1	2	3	4	4	2	0
Leo Lyons	21	4	7	0	0	2	4	10	1	3	4	1	2	1	1
Keon Lawrence	28	2	6	1	4	2	2	9	1	3	4	2	3	1	1
Matt Lawrence	25	1	2	3	7	1	1	12	0	2	2	1	1	1	0
J.T. Tiller	17	1	4	0	1	1	1	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	0
Marshall Brown	14	1	3	1	1	1	1	6	1	1	2	1	1	0	0
Darryl Butterfield	16	1	3	0	1	1	1	3	1	2	3	1	1	1	0
Jason Horton	21	1	1	0	1	1	2	3	0	1	1	3	2	1	0
Vaidotas Volkus	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
TOTALS	200	17	38	7	22	14	21	69	10	20	30	15	18	9	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 82-69
Tempo (# poss)	77
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 54-46%
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 23-22%	Biggest test for KU this season in this category.
O-Reb%	KU 38-26%
FT Rate	KU 28-23%	Rare projected advantage for KU in this category.
Four Factors Overall	eFG% projected to drive most of advantage for KU, with more modest gains in OREB% and FT attempts..
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Arthur, Jackson Opp - Hannah / M. Lawrence	No surprise, as MU's opponents don't shoot the 3FG much or well.
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - Carroll
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Jackson Opp - Carroll	Kaun is projected to be a very close 2nd.
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Jackson Opp - Brown, M. Lawrence
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Chalmers, Rush Opp - Tiller, Hannah