Sports and Numbers

Kansas at Kansas State (Manhattan, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

To say that Kansas State has relied on Michael Beasley to carry the team would be a huge understatement.  Looking at the cPSAN total impact ratings, his rating alone is 56% of the team's total.  To put that into context, even if you add up the ePSAN for Mario Chalmers, Darnell Jackson and Brandon Rush, they don't make up that percentage of KU's total.  Beasley has the fifth best offensive rating using Dean Oliver's methodology among players who use at least 28% of the team's possessions (Beasley uses 33%).  He shoots well from the inside and outside, rebounds as well as anyone in the country, gets to the line, blocks shots and doesn't turn it over much.  What more could you ask of an experienced four-year player, let alone a freshman?  There will be no one player on the floor that comes close to Beasley's talent level on Wednesday night's game.  Whether he lives up to those expectations remains to be seen.  Only four times has Beasley failed to shoot 50 eFG%.  His biggest struggle came against Xavier, where he was 1-of-6 for 5 PTS.

Bill Walker is KSU's other high-profile freshman.  He has nowhere near the efficiency of Beasley, but he has posted solid numbers this season and has contributed the other major bulk of positive stats for the Wildcats.  Looking at Walker's line, it actually resembles a poor man's version of Beasley.  He does some of the same things, just not nearly as proficiently.

Aside from those two, KSU doesn't have too many proven weapons.  Fred Brown has good efficiency numbers but isn't projected to play based on historical trends.  Dominique Sutton probably won't play much, although he has decent numbers when he is in the game.  Blake Young will get plenty of time but hasn't played well this season.  He's shooting only 41 eFG% (29% from 3FG).  Of course, he could come out firing and make his shots against Kansas.  In an emotional game, anything can happen.  Darren Kent has recently been given the go-ahead to shoot 3FG's, so his projections are likely off.  He and Young could be trouble if they're open and "on."

On the Jayhawks' side, Jackson has finally pulled ahead of Chalmers in terms of efficiency.  The two are a formidable inside-outside combination, with sizzling shooting by both (around 65 eFG%).  The depth on KU's team is just amazing.  Some might argue the best inside-outside combination on the team is Darrell Arthur and Brandon Rush.  Both are likely NBA-bound after this season.  As if that weren't enough, KU has four-year veteran Russell Robinson at the point guard slot backed up by a player who shows signs of being the best on the team, Sherron Collins.  The other two backup bigs are both highly regarded, one a senior who started much of his career (Kaun) and the other a McDonald's All-American freshman (Aldrich).  It's hard to pinpoint any weaknesses on this Jayhawks team, but free throw shooting is clearly one of them.  If this game comes down to icing it at the line, KU could be in trouble.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Projection Summary