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Preview: Kansas at Colorado

Feb 1, 2008

Kansas at Colorado (Boulder, CO)

	Kansas	Colorado
Performance Indicators
Record	20-1 (Road: 5-1)	9-11 (Road: 4-6)
AP Rank	2	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	126
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	1	147
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Arizona (#15) W 76-72 (OT) @ Southern California (#27) W 59-55	vs Nebraska (#47) W 55-51 @ Air Force (#150) W 60-50
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .)	Current: 4 Forecast: 5	Current: 159 Forecast: 169
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 17 Est. Projection: 75-58
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by TBD
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 19.2
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 76-55 98% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 21.8 99.93% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 19.0 Est. Projection: 75-57

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	9.09	11.29
Darnell Jackson	7.35	98.49
Mario Chalmers	7.29	106.93
Brandon Rush	5.79	80.74
Cole Aldrich	5.41	25.21
Brennan Bechard*	5.28	2.11
Tyrel Reed*	4.72	12.77
Rodrick Stewart	4.46	32.34
Sasha Kaun	4.43	40.99
Darrell Arthur	4.38	53.12
Russell Robinson	4.30	60.90
Jeremy Case*	2.17	5.56
Sherron Collins	2.07	19.72
Matt Kleinmann*	1.93	1.39
Brad Witherspoon*	-4.62	-1.82
Chase Buford*	-10.14	-4.15

* Rating not based on enough data.

Colorado

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Andrew Zehnder*	4.61	1.12
Richard Roby	3.01	44.60
Trent Beckley*	2.98	0.85
Marcus Hall	1.63	26.16
Javon Coney*	1.56	0.52
Marcus King-Stockton	0.56	3.42
Caleb Patterson	0.41	0.81
Cory Higgins	0.30	4.24
Jermyl Jackson-Wilson	0.15	1.23
Levi Knutson	-1.14	-9.07
Dwight Thorne II	-1.18	-5.98
Xavier Silas	-2.19	-28.69

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Richard Roby is the only CU player with a solid efficiency, and even his is not great. Marcus Hall is the only other Buffalo player with a significant chunk of positive contributions this season. Xavier Silas's season has been extremely forgettable. These Buffaloes players should be no match for KU's firepower.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.)

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Colorado
Colorado OREB**
Kansas 3pt FG%**
Kansas eFG%**
Colorado FT%**
Kansas TO rate**
Colorado PTS/Poss**
Colorado TO rate**
Colorado eFG%**
Colorado FT Rate**
Colorado % own 2FGA's blocked**
Kansas PTS/Poss**
Colorado 3pt FG%
Kansas 2pt FG%**
Colorado 2pt FG%**
	Colorado % Poss STL by Opp
	Kansas OREB
	Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
	Kansas FT%
		Kansas FT Rate

*************************************************************

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Colorado will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Kansas plays faster tempo than Colorado

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	82
Colorado	56

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brad Witherspoon	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Rush	26	2	5	2	4	1	2	11	1	4	5	2	1	1	1
Brennan Bechard	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chase Buford	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cole Aldrich	7	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Conner Teahan	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Darnell Jackson	23	5	7	0	0	2	3	12	3	5	8	1	1	1	1
Darrell Arthur	22	5	9	0	0	2	3	12	2	4	6	1	2	1	2
Jeremy Case	5	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Mario Chalmers	28	2	3	2	4	2	3	12	0	3	3	5	2	2	0
Matt Kleinmann	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rodrick Stewart	12	1	2	0	1	1	1	3	1	2	3	2	1	0	0
Russell Robinson	26	1	2	1	3	2	3	7	1	2	3	5	2	2	0
Sasha Kaun	15	3	4	0	0	2	3	8	2	2	4	0	1	1	1
Sherron Collins	22	2	4	1	3	1	1	8	0	2	2	3	1	1	0
Tyrel Reed	6	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	22	40	8	20	14	21	82	11	27	38	21	12	9	6

Colorado
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Richard Roby	38	4	9	1	4	4	5	15	2	4	6	2	4	1	0
Marcus Hall	40	3	7	2	5	2	3	14	1	3	4	3	3	2	0
Xavier Silas	35	2	5	1	3	3	4	10	1	2	3	1	3	1	0
Cory Higgins	36	2	4	1	3	1	2	8	1	3	4	2	2	1	0
Levi Knutson	18	0	1	1	3	1	1	4	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
Jermyl Jackson-Wilson	18	1	4	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	5	1	2	1	1
Marcus King-Stockton	15	1	2	0	0	1	2	3	2	2	4	1	1	0	1
TOTALS	200	13	32	6	18	12	18	56	9	18	27	11	16	6	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 82-56
Tempo (# poss)	68
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 57-44%
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 24-18%
O-Reb%	KU 38-25%
FT Rate	CU 24-23%
Four Factors Overall	Shooting will give a huge boost to KU, and the other three factors provide small cushions to add up to a projected blowout.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Arthur/Chalmers/Jackson Opp - Roby, Hall
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Jackson Opp - King-Stockton
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Jackson Opp - King-Stockton
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Jackson Opp - King-Stockton	King-Stockton is only CU player projected to have higher efficiency than his season average.
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Stewart Opp - Roby, Knutson	Only Stewart is projected to have lower than his season average efficiency for KU.