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See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page. You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.

Preview: Kansas at Boston College

Jan 4, 2008

Kansas at Boston College (Boston, MA)

	Kansas	Boston College
Performance Indicators
Record	13-0	10-2
AP Rank	3	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	77
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	1	51
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	vs Arizona (#16) W 76-72 (OT) @ Southern California (#40) W 59-55	vs Rhode Island (#43) W 76-72 @ Maryland (#70) W 81-78
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength)	8	72
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 10 Est. Projection: 76-66
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Not available in time for preview
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 13.3
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 74-60 92% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. If 5 venue-appropriate games not available, other recent games used to make 7 total.)	Win by 16.6 99.82% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)	Win by 12.6 Est. Projection: 75-63

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	12.50	11.62
Mario Chalmers	7.51	69.76
Darnell Jackson	6.84	51.58
Cole Aldrich	6.83	20.96
Tyrel Reed	5.03	12.26
Sasha Kaun	4.81	28.07
Russell Robinson	4.37	40.23
Rodrick Stewart	3.95	22.40
Brandon Rush	3.63	25.29
Darrell Arthur	3.54	27.72
Brennan Bechard*	3.11	1.10
Sherron Collins	3.02	11.63
Matt Kleinmann*	2.89	1.59
Jeremy Case*	1.57	2.91
Brad Witherspoon*	-3.41	-1.17
Chase Buford*	-14.62	-5.31

* Rating not based on enough data.

Boston College

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Cortney Dunn*	23.33	1.67
Corey Raji	5.18	30.32
Josh Southern	3.35	3.28
Rakim Sanders	2.39	16.86
Tyrese Rice	1.42	14.28
Shamari Spears	1.30	10.52
Tyrelle Blair	1.27	9.08
Tyler Roche	-0.45	-3.12
John Oates	-0.48	-2.33
Biko Paris	-1.57	-10.34
Daye Kaba*	-4.13	-0.99
Brennan Bennett*	-17.72	-1.27

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

On the face of it, BC shouldn't have the horses to compete with Kansas. Corey Raji has performed the best for BC this season, shooting a whopping 74.2 eFG% and scoring in double figures in only 20 MIN/g. The problem for BC is that Rice and Spears, the only players averaging over 30 MIN/g, have not been efficient. Though neither one is far from 50 eFG% on either side, both average over 2.5 TO/g. Rice plays nearly the entire game, so his 19.7 PTS and 3.5 REB aren't quite as gaudy as they appear. KU's balanced attack is led by Mario Chalmers and Darnell Jackson. A slew of highly efficient youngsters and solid veterans complement the leading perfomers. And if that isn't enough, the players many experts consider to be the most talented on this KU team are near the bottom of the ratings so far this season (Rush, Arthur, Collins). On paper, it's a major mismatch of player talent.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Boston College
Offense #16 - Defense #2 - Tempo #85 Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#2 eFG%, #50 opp eFG%) Rank #4 in forcing TO's, including #2 in STL pct, all while ranking #44 in avoiding own TO Poor use of FT line (#272 FT Rate) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#9) and shoot it well themselves (#3) Dominate the BLK category (#1 limit own, #5 block opp) Very high % of FG's assisted (#40) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1) Mario Chalmers - #11 eFG%, #187 AST rate, #5 STL rate Russell Robinson - #21 STL rate Darrell Arthur - #85 BLK rate Darnell Jackson - #59 OREB% Sasha Kaun - #25 BLK rate Brandon Rush - #103 TO rate (good)	Offense #82 - Defense #74 - Tempo #220 Don't force many TO by opp (#255) Excellent OREB% (#35) Dominate use of FT line (#13 FT Rate, #10 limit opp FT Rate) Get blocked often (#260) but BLK a lot (#10) Very high % of FG's assisted (#41) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1) Tyrese Rice - #81 AST rate Shamari Spears - #186 OREB% Tyrelle Blair - #32 FT Rate, #7 BLK% Corey Raji - #100 OREB%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, BC relies heavily on FT's but unusually low amount on 3FG's, while its opponents rely an unusually low amount on FT's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for Boston College
Boston College % own 2FGA's blocked**
Boston College % Poss STL by Opp**
Kansas TO rate**
Boston College TO rate**
	Kansas 3pt FG%
	Kansas OREB
Boston College 2pt FG%**
	Kansas eFG%
	Kansas 2pt FG%
	Boston College PTS/Poss
Boston College eFG%**
	Boston College FT%
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
	Kansas PTS/Poss
	Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked
	Boston College OREB
	Boston College FT Rate
	Boston College 3pt FG%
		Kansas FT Rate**
		Kansas FT%**

*************************************************************

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Boston College will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Kansas plays faster tempo than Boston College

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	78
Boston College	63

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	23	2	5	2	4	1	1	11	1	2	3	1	1	1	1
Cole Aldrich	9	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Darnell Jackson	21	4	6	0	0	1	2	9	2	3	5	1	2	1	1
Darrell Arthur	23	5	9	0	1	2	2	12	2	3	5	1	2	1	2
Jeremy Case	6	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
Mario Chalmers	27	2	3	2	4	1	2	11	0	2	2	4	2	3	0
Rodrick Stewart	17	2	3	0	1	1	2	5	1	1	2	2	2	1	0
Russell Robinson	26	1	2	1	2	1	2	6	1	2	3	4	2	3	0
Sasha Kaun	17	3	4	0	0	1	3	7	1	2	3	0	1	1	2
Sherron Collins	20	2	3	2	4	1	1	11	0	2	2	3	2	1	0
Tyrel Reed	11	0	1	1	2	0	0	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	22	39	8	19	10	16	78	9	20	29	19	15	12	7

Boston College
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Tyrese Rice	38	3	7	2	6	5	6	17	0	2	2	5	4	1	0
Rakim Sanders	24	2	5	2	3	1	2	11	2	3	5	1	3	1	0
Shamari Spears	30	3	7	0	0	3	4	9	2	4	6	1	3	1	0
Corey Raji	20	2	4	1	1	2	3	9	2	2	4	1	1	0	0
Tyrelle Blair	24	1	4	0	0	3	4	5	2	2	4	1	3	1	2
Tyler Roche	24	1	1	2	4	0	1	8	0	1	1	2	2	1	0
Biko Paris	23	1	3	0	2	1	1	3	0	1	1	2	2	1	0
John Oates	17	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0
TOTALS	200	13	32	7	17	16	22	63	9	17	26	13	19	6	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 78-63
Tempo (# poss)	70
FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
eFG%	KU 59-48%
TO Rate (lo better)	KU 27-21%	Lots of STL projected for KU
O-Reb%	KU 35-31%
FT Rate	BC 33-17%
Four Factors Overall	Significant advantage at FT line for BC is cancelled out by expected OREB% for KU, leaving the significant eFG% difference as the reason for KU's expected comfortable victory.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Arthur, Chalmers/Collins/Rush Opp - Rice, Sanders
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Chalmers Opp - Raji
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Collins Opp - Raji
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Collins, Arthur Opp - Roche, Sanders
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Reed, Stewart Opp - Oates, Paris